70% of people infected with the coronavirus did not pass it to anyone, preliminary research shows. Superspreading events account for most transmission.
Reuters
An average person with the coronavirus infects about two other people, but an infected person sometimes passes the virus to far more people during a super-spreader event.
New research suggests such events, which typically involve indoor gatherings, are responsible for most coronavirus transmission.
Experts found that just 20% of coronavirus cases result in 80% of transmission. An estimated 70% of infected patients studied didn't pass the virus at all.
By targeting locations and activities that beget super-spreading, countries may be able to avoid more lockdowns during future waves of infections.
Super-spreader events, in which one person infects a disproportionately large number of others, are the primary means by which the coronavirus spreads, new research suggests.
A group of epidemiologists in Hong Kong found that just 20% of cases studied there were responsible for 80% of all coronavirus transmission. The researchers also found that 70% of people infected with the coronavirus didn't pass it to anyone else, and that all super-spreading events involved indoor social gatherings.
"That's the picture we have so far," Ben Cowling, one of the study co-authors, told Business Insider. "Super-spreading events are happening more than we expected, more than what could be explained by chance. The frequency of super-spreading is beyond what we could have imagined."
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That information could inform how policymakers craft rules to keep people safe.
"Now we know which measures might give you the most bang for your buck — if we could stop the super-spreading from happening, we'd benefit the most people," Cowling said.
A small number of super-spreading events account for most transmission
Super-spreader events around the world have created clusters of coronavirus infections that cropped up almost overnight. A South Korean churchgoer infected 43 others in February, a singer infected 53 people at a choir practice in Washington a month later, and a New York lawyer was responsible for passing the coronavirus to more than 100 others in his community.
A man near Young Israel orthodox synagogue in New Rochelle, New York on March 10.
For their research, Cowling and his colleagues examined more than 1,000 coronavirus cases in Hong Kong between January 23 and April 28.
They found that super-spreading was the primary means of transmission in the city. About 350 of the cases analyzed were a result of community spread, while the rest were imported from other countries. Within the community-spread cases, more than half were connected to six super-spreading events.
The term "super-spreader" refers to an infected person who transmits the virus to more people than a typical infected person would. A virus' R0 value (pronounced "R-naught") refers to the average number of people that one sick person goes on to infect in a group with no immunity. The R0 of the coronavirus, so far, seems to hover between 2 and 2.5.
But in the case of these Hong Kong super-spreading events, one person infected at least three times that many people. In fact, 20% of cases caused 80% of transmissions, a majority of which were linked to super-spreading events at a wedding, temple, and multiple bars in the city's Lan Kwai Fong district.
The remaining 20% of transmissions were result of another just 10% of cases, when infected patients passed along the virus to one, or at most two, other people — generally someone in their households.
"Social exposures produced a greater number of secondary cases compared to family or work exposures," the study authors wrote, adding that reducing super-spreading events could have a considerable effect in lowering the virus' R0.
The 80-20 rule
In a New York Times article about his team's study, which has yet to be peer-reviewed, Cowling wrote: "You might be wondering if our study, or the experience of Hong Kong, with its small number of total infections, is more broadly representative. We think so."
JUNG YEON-JE/AFP via Getty Images
Indeed, other research supports his findings: A 2011 study found that 20% of a population was responsible for 80% of the transmission of many diseases, including malaria. This is known as the "80-20 rule."
Some scientists think that the ratio could be even smaller. A model from researchers at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine suggests only 10% of coronaviruses cases account for 80% of global transmission.
Preliminary research that examined more than 200 coronavirus cases in Israel found that between 1% and 10% of cases were linked to 80% of transmission. Another study from Shenzhen, China yielded a similar conclusion: between 8% and 9% of cases caused 80% of transmission.
Super-spreading events happen in crowded, indoor areas
Coronavirus super-spreader events have shared a few key characteristics: They've involved indoor gatherings in which lots of people from different households were in close, extended contact.
For example, a superspreader event in Arkansas involved a pastor and his wife who attended church events and a bible study group a few days before they developed coronavirus symptoms. Of the 92 people they came into contact with, 35 got sick. Seven had to be hospitalized. Three died.
Eric Gay/AP Photo
Offices and restaurants can be infection hotspots, too. A study of an outbreak in a call center in Seoul, South Korea, revealed that almost half the employees on one floor got infected. Nearly all of them sat in the same section.
In that sense, it's not that certain individual people are more contagious than others or shed more virus. Instead, there's a type of activity that gives individuals access to a greater number of people in areas conducive to the virus' spread, Cowling said.
Research has found time and again that the risk of coronavirus transmission is higher indoors, in poorly ventilated spaces where lots of people have sustained contact.
"You can't have a super-spreading event unless there are a lot of people around, so you have to be very careful still about gatherings of people of any size — that includes religious services," William Schaffner, an infectious-disease expert at Vanderbilt University, previously told Business Insider.
If we target gatherings that could become super-spreader events, we could avoid more lockdowns
Cowling said the study findings could inform countries' responses to future waves of coronavirus infections.
"We'll be in a much better position to deal with the second wave this fall," he said. "This knowledge gives us the chance to take more measured actions without going into full lockdown again."
REUTERS/Mike Segar
A few countries, like Japan and South Korea, have already shown that it's possible to ride out an outbreak without dramatically restricting citizens' movements or shutting down all stores, restaurants, and schools.
Japan's success stems from adherence to the "3 C's rule." The government told people to avoid closed spaces, crowded places, and close-contact settings — all of which are ripe for super-spreading events.
Going forward, Cowling thinks other countries could benefit from instituting rules that target the source of most transmissions (in addition to continued contact tracing and testing), rather than blanket shelter-in-place orders.
Michel Euler/AP
"Anything outdoors is fine. I'm less concerned about protests," he said, adding that restaurants and bars could also probably operate at 50% capacity, with empty tables between diners.
"We need to figure out how many people per square meter is acceptable," Cowling said. "Meetings and religious activities could go on, but with reduced numbers of people."
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