8 takeaways from a look at Minnesota and Rochester demographic changes

May 22—ROCHESTER — Chao Mwatela said decisions of local government are often based on the changing demographics of the community it serves.

"Sometimes we are asked to make predictions on what will happen 20 years from now," Mwatela said, Rochester's director of diversity, equity and inclusion.

With that in mind, she invited Senior State Demographer Megan Dayton to provide insights to the Rochester City Council on Monday.

Dayton said watching changes among younger generations, as well as shifts in the workforce, can help local officials see what challenges they might see in the future.

"Demographic trends or demographics in general are the common denominator in everything that we do," she told the council. "Rarely do you get to sit down for an hour and think about those numbers and how they impact you and the policy decisions here in Rochester."

Here are a few takeaways from the data she provided:

1. Population growth comes with increased diversity.

Minnesota saw its population grow by slightly more than 400,000, which was entirely based on growth among non-white populations.

"For the first time ever in Minnesota history, our white, non-hispanic population has started declining," Dayton said, adding that the state remains overwhelmingly white, with 76.3% of residents identifying as white.

The diverse growth is different in Olmsted County and Rochester, with all broad race groups, including white, experiencing growth between 2010 and 2020.

2. Rochester is the state's third fastest-growing city.

The greatest growth in Minnesota has traditionally been seen in the metro area.

"The most people are going to go where the most people already are," Dayton said, pointing out other growth exists throughout the state.

Rochester added 14,626 people to its population between 2010 and 2020, which is less than a third of the growth seen in Minneapolis.

"Most of Olmsted County's growth was in the city of Rochester," Dayton added.

3. Diversity will continue to grow, even if migration is reduced.

Dayton said younger populations are more diverse than older generations, which means a portion of statewide and local diversity will continue, regardless of future government policies.

"We will continue to get more and more diverse based on the people who are already here," she said.

4. The state saw unprecedented growth in 65 and older population

The number of potential retirees in Minnesota saw tremendous growth during the past two decades.

"This is truly unprecedented and a shift to an older Minnesota," Dayton said, pointing out the growth is related to aging residents, rather than migration.

"These are not retirees flocking to Minnesota," she said

While the shift from workforce to retirees among the Baby Boomer generation is slowing, Dayton said the older Minnesotans continue to age, leading to a variety of changing local needs.

"We have a long way to go," she said.

5. State's working-age projected to remain remaining flat

As older workers retire, the number of younger residents entering the workforce isn't quite keeping pace, due to smaller generations being born.

"Minnesota has been before replacement-level fertility for 30 years," Dayton said, pointing out the number of children born hasn't been replacing population declines.

Projections point to a potential 200,000 dip in the working-age population in 2030 under current trends, before again increasing by 2040.

"That has never happened before," Dayton said.

6. Workforce is not shrinking as rapidly as it could.

Dayton said a larger number of potential retirees are opting to stay in the workforce longer than they would have 10 to 15 years ago.

As a result, she said the number of workers who are 65 years old or older tends to compensate for the decrease in the number of potential workers younger than 55 years old.

7. Approximately a quarter of job vacancies are in health care.

The shifting population has led to challenges for employers.

"Right now, there are about two jobs available for everyone who wants one," Dayton said, adding that the number of job vacancies in the state are at an all-time high.

The number of job opportunities means some jobs are harder to fill, based on work requirements and pay.

"We have a mismatch between what people want to do and what we need them to do," Dayton said, pointing to challenges in finding workers for health care, daycare and other social needs.

8. Diversity helps maintain the labor force.

Dayton said she often counters the claim that "people don't want to work" by pointing to the lack of younger residents.

"Those people haven't been born yet," she said.

While the number of job openings has increased faster than the number of available workers, Dayton said statewide data shows the overall labor force has continued to grow since 1990.

While the number of white residents in the state's labor force has stayed relatively static at 2.5 million workers since 2000, the number of non-white workers have continued to grow in each decade, leading to more than 3 million overall workers in 2019.