9 things to watch on a huge primary day for Democrats

The left wing of the Democratic Party has been reeling since Sen. Bernie Sanders’ collapse in the presidential primary. On Tuesday, it could finally mount a comeback.

Primaries in Kentucky and New York offer liberals significant opportunities to grow their influence in the party and chip away at the establishment’s grip.

By all accounts, progressives have the momentum in Kentucky, where Charles Booker has seized the energy around the protests over racial injustice and police brutality to make a once-unthinkable charge at party favorite Amy McGrath in the race to face Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell in November. McGrath, a powerhouse fundraiser endorsed by the national party apparatus, has said she would work with President Donald Trump and doesn’t have meaningful relationships with Kentucky Democratic powerbrokers, leaving her vulnerable for a primary upset.

In New York, two years after Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez ousted the House’s third-ranking Democrat, a handful of incumbents are facing liberal primary challengers — most notably House Foreign Affairs Committee Chair Eliot Engel, who was first elected in 1988. Ousting Engel has become a top priority for the left: Sanders, Ocasio-Cortez and Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) have all endorsed her opponent, educator Jamaal Bowman, who is African American and nearly 30 years Engel’s junior.

Progressives are also targeting two solidly Democratic open House seats near New York City: one in the Bronx, and the other in the Lower Hudson Valley. And there is a smattering of other congressional primaries that will further define the battle for the House in November.

All of this is taking place in the continuing coronavirus pandemic — and potential test cases for the general election: delayed results, large numbers of votes being cast by mail and the closure of thousands of polling places due to lack of staff and social distancing guidelines.

Here are 9 things POLITICO’s campaign team is watching:

Can McGrath shake Booker in Kentucky?

McGrath, national Democrats’ preferred candidate, has raised an enormous sum of money backed by small-dollar donors eager to see her topple McConnell. But Booker, a state representative who entered the race in January, six months after McGrath, has fostered enthusiasm behind his bid in the past three weeks in the wake of protests over police brutality in Kentucky and nationwide. Most of the best-known politicians and largest organizations on the party’s left have come off the sidelines in support of his underdog candidacy down the stretch.

The race has increasingly come down to Booker’s momentum versus McGrath’s structural advantages. Her campaign has been on the airwaves for months funding biography spots and general election ads against McConnell, and her campaign’s cash has also allowed them to build the infrastructure to turn out her voters across the state, relying on Kentucky’s more conservative Democrats outside the population centers in Louisville and Lexington.

Booker, meanwhile, has galvanized the party’s base, and earned endorsements from many members of the state’s establishment class, and national figures including Sanders and Ocasio-Cortez.

McGrath remains the favorite in the race. But predictions are uncertain given the high volume of absentee voting because of the pandemic, and concerns about in-person turnout because there are fewer than 200 Election Day polling places statewide — including just one in Jefferson County, home to Louisville, the largest city and Booker’s home base.

A McGrath victory would represent another win for the party’s establishment, which hasn’t been seriously tested in primaries in recent cycles. But a Booker victory would give progressives their biggest win since Ocasio-Cortez upset Rep. Joe Crowley in 2018 and would also represent a serious test for liberals’ claims that candidates running on left-wing platforms can compete seriously on a statewide level, even in races in red territory.

Is it the end of the road for Eliot Engel?

Progressives are throwing all their energy into ousting Engel, and the 16-term congressman has never looked more vulnerable.

After a damning article in The Atlantic that revealed he was riding out the pandemic in the D.C. suburbs and an unflattering hot-mic moment upon his return to the Bronx, many Democratic operatives privately concede they would be more surprised if Engel survived. Middle school principal Jamaal Bowman is closing in, with endorsements from Sanders and Ocasio-Cortzez, plus hundreds of thousands of dollars in help from the Justice Democrats and the Working Families Party. A Bowman internal poll in mid-June showed Bowman with a 10-point lead.

Engel, 73, has rolled out establishment endorsements from Hillary Clinton and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, and has gotten a boost from some pro-Israel groups. He’s spent more than $1.4 million by early June — more than Bowman’s $630,000. But Bowman got a huge boost when one of his leading rivals dropped out earlier this month and endorsed him.

A loss by Engel would be a major boon to the progressive movement, which has amassed a somewhat spotty record this year. Conservative Democratic Rep. Dan Lipinski lost in March to the Justice Democrats-backed Marie Newman, but Reps. Henry Cuellar (D-Texas) and Joyce Beatty (D-Ohio) both survived progressive challengers.

Engel isn’t the only New York incumbent in danger

Besides Engel, nearly every Democratic House incumbent in New York City and its suburbs is facing a challenge from their left of varying degrees of competitiveness.

Perhaps the most endangered incumbent besides Engel is Rep. Yvette Clarke, who represents the Brooklyn-based 9th District. In 2018, Clarke only narrowly beat back Adem Bunkeddeko, a community organizer, by fewer than two thousand votes in a head-to-head matchup. Now, Clarke is facing Bunkeddeko again — but three other candidates are also on the ballot, including City Councilmember Chaim Deutsch, complicating the race. Bunkeddeko, like Bowman, picked up an endorsement from The New York Times’ editorial board.

Rep. Carolyn Maloney has a rematch against Suraj Patel in the East Side-focused 12th District, who got about 40 percent of the primary vote in his first bid to primary the longtime incumbent in the midterms, with two other candidates also on the ballot. And powerful Rep. Jerry Nadler also faces two primary challengers in his 10th District, which runs from the West Side to parts of Brooklyn: Lindsey Boylan and Jonathan Herzog, an Andrew Yang supporter. Unlike some of his compatriots in the New York delegation, Nadler was able to rein in some progressive support, picking up endorsements from Ocasio-Cortez and Warren.

Ocasio-Cortez is facing a primary challenge of her own: Former CNBC anchor Michelle Caruso-Cabrera, who is challenging the freshman from the center. Caruso-Cabrera has been a strong fundraiser — raising over $2 million with the help of groups like the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, which typically backs Republicans — but is still underfunded compared to the massive warchest for the progressive leader.

Still, Caruso-Cabrera kicked in an additional $1 million of her own money in the final days of the race — her first self-funding of the campaign. Ocasio-Cortez launched an attack ad slamming Caruso-Cabrera over the final weekend, a curious move for someone who espouses an inspirational, grassroots brand of politics.

Open seats present opportunities for progressive pickups

A pair of New York City-area open seats are golden opportunities for progressives to add to their ranks, in a delegation that is dominated by entrenched incumbents. But both races have fractured, crowded fields with no clear frontrunner.

Among the 12 candidates running for the Bronx-based 15th District to replace the retiring Rep. José Serrano is City Councilmember Rubén Díaz Sr. Díaz has a long history of making homophobic remarks and has repeatedly praised Trump, making him an awkward fit for the House Democratic caucus, let alone from the bluest district in the nation.

City Councilmember Ritchie Torres has emerged as the main anti-Díaz contender among a handful of national groups, but he is not the only other credible candidate in the race. The field also includes state Assemblymember Michael Blake, former City Council Speaker Melissa Mark-Viverito and community organizer Samelys López, who has the backing of some national progressive politicians.

There’s also an open-seat race in the 17th District, in Westchester and Rockland counties north of the city, to replace retiring Rep. Nita Lowey. Progressives have rallied around Mondaire Jones, an attorney who jumped into the race before Lowey announced she wouldn’t seek reelection. But the competitive field also includes state Assemblyman David Buchwald, self-funding attorney Adam Schleifer, Obama-era Defense Department official Evelyn Farkas, former NARAL Pro-Choice America chair Allison Fine and state Sen. David Carlucci.

The New York special election

Voters in Western New York will finally choose a replacement for disgraced former Rep. Chris Collins, who resigned last year and pleaded guilty to insider trading charges.

Eight GOP county chairs chose state Sen. Chris Jacobs last January as their nominee in Tuesday’s special election. He’ll face Democrat Nate McMurray, who came within 1,100 votes of ousting Collins in 2018. With Collins off the ballot, Jacobs is favored to win in a Buffalo-area district that Trump carried by 25 points in 2016, but there are still a lot of unknowns. The state isn’t used to voting by absentee ballots, and Jacobs is banking on a surge of Republicans voting in-person on Tuesday.

But Jacobs will also be competing in a crowded GOP primary to represent the district for a full term in 2021. A former Democrat, Jacobs has drawn two opponents from the right: Fox News contributor Beth Parlato and Erie County Comptroller Stefan Mychajliw. Jacobs has leaned into his Twitter endorsement from Trump and has a clear path to victory.

What we’ll learn about the battle for the House

New York was home to three of the 43 House seats Democrats flipped in the 2018 midterm elections, and Republicans on Tuesday will pick nominees to face those vulnerable freshmen.

In the 11th District, state Assemblymember Nicole Malliotakis is the heavy favorite to face Democratic Rep. Max Rose. Malliotakis is another highly touted woman recruit for the GOP — she was the party’s nominee for mayor in 2017 — but she would enter the general election at a significant cash disadvantage against Rose, who has cultivated a colorful-yet-politically-moderate reputation befitting his Staten Island-based district.

Republicans don’t have a strong candidate in the 19th District, where freshman Rep. Antonio Delgado is running for a second term in a Hudson Valley district Trump won by nearly 7 points in 2016. Their two candidates, Ola Hawatmeh and Kyle Van De Water had a combined $228,000 in the bank as of early June, far less than Delgado’s $2.7 million.

Farther west, former Rep. Claudia Tenney is hoping to dispatch challenger George Phillips and set up a rematch with the man who beat her two years ago, freshman Rep. Anthony Brindisi. Brindisi won a 2-point victory in a district Trump carried by more than 15 points, so another Brindisi-Tenney race is expected to be competitive.

Those aren’t the only competitive districts in the state. On Eastern Long Island, Democrats are picking a nominee to face GOP Rep. Lee Zeldin, choosing among four candidates, including 2018 nominee Perry Gershon. Farther west, along the South Shore, Republicans will pick either Andrew Garbarino or Mike LiPetri to be the nominee to replace Rep. Pete King, who is retiring after 14 terms in the House. (Democrats are likely to nominate retired Army Lt. Col. Jackie Gordon for the swing-ish seat.)

GOP Rep. John Katko is one of three Republicans representing districts that voted for Hillary Clinton to survive the 2018 midterm wave, and Democratic voters in the Syracuse area will pick his 2020 opponent on Tuesday. It will either be Syracuse University professor Dana Balter, who lost to Katko in 2018 by a sizable margin, or Navy veteran Francis Conole. Some national Democrats are hoping for a fresh face.

Will Mark Meadows’ choice succeed him in Congress?

A contentious primary for former Rep. Mark Meadows’ seat will come to a close Tuesday when western North Carolina voters choose between Lynda Bennett, his preferred successor, and Madison Cawthorn, a 24-year-old businessman.

Meadows’ last-minute retirement, revealed just 30 hours before the state’s December filing deadline, angered local Republicans in the state who openly suspected that he timed his announcement to benefit Bennett, a friend of his wife. (Bennett’s campaign website domain was registered by the congressman’s brother in October, nearly two months before Meadows’ declared his plans to retire.) The timing of Meadows’ announcement also boxed out sitting state legislators who had already filed to run for reelection.

A real-estate agent and local GOP activist, Bennett won the May primary with 23 percent but was shy of the 30 percent needed to avoid a runoff. Cawthorn took 20 percent of the vote.

Bennett has the backing of the Meadows and got a late Twitter endorsement from Trump. But Cawthorn, who was paralyzed in a car accident, has racked up a slew of local endorsements, including from several of his former rivals who failed to make the runoff.

A victory by Bennett would give the party its second safe-seat primary victory by a woman candidate, joining Mary Miller, who is all-but-guaranteed to succeed retiring Rep. John Shimkus (R-Ill.) in Congress.

A competitive primary for an emerging Virginia battleground

GOP Rep. Denver Riggleman’s loss earlier this month in a nominating convention boosted Democrats’ prospects in this rural central Virginia district. On Tuesday, they will pick their candidate to take on the new nominee, Bob Good, a staunch social conservative who opposes same-sex marriage, birthright citizenship and abortion for any reason.

There are three top contenders in the Democratic primary for the seat, which spans from the Washington exurbs to the North Carolina border. The front-runner is likely Cameron Webb, a physician at the University of Virginia and a former Obama White House fellow who has the backing of the science advocacy group 314 Action.

Meanwhile, EMILY’s List has run advertisements promoting Claire Russo, a Marine veteran who grabbed national attention after she revealed in a TV ad she had been sexually assaulted while in the military. And VoteVets is backing RD Huffstetler, another Marine vet, who ran for the seat in 2018.

Trump won this district by 11 points, but privately some GOP operatives admit they will have to spend to keep the seat. Good had only $34,000 in the bank as of late May and is not well known. He was only elected by about 2,500 delegates, many of whom were angered by Riggleman’s officiation of a gay wedding.

Down in a neighboring seat in Virginia Beach, former GOP Rep. Scott Taylor is vying for a rematch with Democratic Rep. Elaine Luria, who beat him by 2 points in 2018. He’s expected to best Navy veteran Ben Loyola in Tuesday’s primary.

Don’t expect many results Tuesday night

In the contested primaries in New York City and Kentucky, it is unlikely that a winner will be declared tonight, unless the races are an absolute blowout.

In Kentucky, the state’s two largest counties say they won’t release any results until a week later, after all absentee ballots are counted. (Some smaller counties have also made the same decision.) Kentucky officials have strongly encouraged absentee and early voting.

But some national voting rights groups have raised concerns about a limited number of polling places in the state. The state usually has roughly 3,700 polling places, but there will only be around 200 on Tuesday.

Calls in close New York races are also unlikely on Tuesday. In New York, absentee ballots aren’t counted until a week after Election Day, to ensure voters who cast a ballot in-person also did not mail one in. New York usually requires voters to have a valid excuse to vote absentee, and those ballots represent a very small percentage of the overall vote.

But because of the pandemic, voters were mailed absentee ballot applications and that number is expected to skyrocket. Like other states that have had to make a rapid switch to accommodate more mail-in voting, some voters in New York have complained they have not received their ballot, despite requesting one.