If 95% of people wear masks, tens of thousands of lives could be saved, model shows

Brooke Wolford
·2 min read

If nearly everyone wears masks in public, tens of thousands of lives could be saved during the coronavirus pandemic, an updated forecast from the University of Washington predicted.

The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation’s (IHME) model, which is often cited by the White House, predicted that more than 179,000 people in the U.S. will die from COVID-19 by Oct. 1, U.S. News reported. But the model also showed the number of deaths would fall to about 146,000 if 95% of the population wore masks in public, according to KIRO.

A model from the University of Washington predicted 33,000 fewer people would die of COVID-19 if 95% of the U.S. population wore masks in public spaces.
A model from the University of Washington predicted 33,000 fewer people would die of COVID-19 if 95% of the U.S. population wore masks in public spaces.

“People need to know that wearing masks can reduce transmission of the virus by as much as 50%, and those who refuse are putting their lives, their families, their friends and their communities at risk,” Dr. Christopher Murray, director of the IHME, said in a statement, according to KIRO.

The IHME model predicted more than 200,000 people would die from coronavirus by Oct. 1 in its last forecast on June 15, U.S. News reported. While many states, including California, have seen a rise in the number of cases in the past few weeks, deaths have not increased at the same rate, according to KIRO.

“States reporting the ages of confirmed cases suggest there are more cases being detected in younger people who are at substantially lower risk of death than older people,” Murray said, according to U.S. News. “It remains to be seen how this will unfold over the next few weeks, and if transmission continues to go up, we may see increasing infections in at-risk populations.”

‘You’re not immune.’ As states reopen, COVID-19 cases surge among the young, reports say

The model accounts for three different scenarios:

Current projection: assumes mandates would be reimposed for 6 weeks when the U.S. reaches 8 death per million

Mandates easing: assumes that states continue to lift social distancing restrictions and do not reimpose them

Universal masks: where 95% of the population uses masks in every public setting and mandates are reimposed for 6 weeks if the daily death rate reaches 8 per million, according to IHME.

“These factors are vital in our projections and highlight how many lives can be saved,” Murray said, according to KIRO.