AAC basketball preview: Everything you should know for the 2022-23 season

Houston is considered the overwhelming favorite in the American Athletic Conference.

Memphis (picked by the league’s coaches to finish second) and Cincinnati are perennial contenders. Temple and Tulane are on the come-up. But will the AAC have much more in the way of legitimate firepower in 2022-23? Tigers coach Penny Hardaway thinks so.

“That’s respect for even saying we’re finishing second,” he said during the conference’s media days earlier this month. “Tulane’s bringing their entire team back. Cincinnati got better with (former Memphis guard) Landers (Nolley II) going there. South Florida got better with (former Tigers guard) Tyler Harris going there. Other teams around our conference have a chip on their shoulder, like Wichita State.

“So, for us to be picked second, it’s big.”

Here are USA TODAY Sports’ predictions, projections and team-by-team storylines for the 2022-23 AAC basketball season.

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2022-23 projected order of finish

Projected conference champion

Houston

Don’t miss games 

Houston vs. Memphis 

The Cougars-Tigers matchup has seldom disappointed in recent years. With expectations again high for both teams, there could be a lot riding on both games, which fall in the final three weeks of the season.

Temple vs. Tulane

The Owls and Green Wave each took big steps forward in 2021-22 and neither team lost much this offseason.

Tulane vs. Houston

Jalen Cook, Kevin Cross and Co. will be heavy underdogs when they host the Cougars on Jan. 17. But there’s a real chance first place in the AAC standings could be on the line that day.

Memphis vs. Cincinnati 

If there’s one rivalry that defines the AAC, this might be it. Neither program has played an opponent more in their histories than one another.

Team-by-team breakdown

Central Florida 

What to watch: A middle-of-the-pack team last season, at first blush, the Knights figure to take a step backward. Johnny Dawkins lost his top three scorers and three of his top four rebounders. C.J. Walker (8.3 ppg, 5.7 rpg) and Darius Johnson (6.4 ppg, 3.3 rpg) were solid contributors, and they’re back. Dawkins also has assembled a solid collection of newcomers. A mix of transfers (former USF 7-footer Michael Durr, former East Carolina wing Brandon Suggs, former Pitt guard Ithiel Horton and others) along with a key high school recruit (4-star forward Taylor Hendricks) highlight UCF’s made-over roster. The biggest question mark here is whether or not Dawkins has done enough to account for losing many of those responsible for what offensive punch the Knights did have last season (fifth in the AAC in scoring offense).

Bottom line: Many thought the Knights had a chance to make some noise in the AAC last season. While they didn’t quite live up to that hype, they weren’t bad, either. That’s a reasonable expectation for them this season. 

Cincinnati 

What to watch: A quick glance at the Bearcats’ record might lead some to conclude they underachieved last season. But, considering Cincinnati lost eight games versus AAC opponents by seven points or less, second-year coach Wes Miller has something to build on. Especially since he returns several key contributors. Four of his top five scorers are back, including David DeJulius (14.5 ppg). Cincinnati’s top assist man (Mika Adams-Woods – 3.06 apg) and its top rebounder (Jeremiah Davenport – 5.5 rpg) are also still on the roster. The Bearcats also went out and picked up Landers Nolley II (9.8 ppg at Memphis last season) and Kalu Ezikpe (11.3 ppg, 7.1 rpg at Old Dominion) from the transfer portal. Cincinnati was a fine defensive team last season and it should be again. Can it take a step forward offensively?

Bottom line: The Bearcats will be dangerous. Dangerous enough to contend for a top-3 AAC finish. Now, they just have to show they can do it. 

ECU

What to watch: Former Tennessee assistant Michael Schwartz has inherited a team that struggled to a 5-11 finish in the AAC last season and returns very little: RJ Felton (5.1 ppg), second-leading rebounder Brandon Johnson (5.1 rpg) and Ludgy Debaut (the Pirates’ top shot-blocker) are pretty much it. Potentially making such a bleak outlook seem even worse is the fact that ECU’s incoming recruiting class ranked eighth in the league. The Pirates actually scored the ball at a decent clip in 2021-22 (seventh-best in the AAC). But it doesn’t seem likely they’ll improve there.

Bottom line: Schwartz won’t be judged completely by the results on the court. Which is a good thing, because there’s a chance that things get rather ugly in Greenville, North Carolina, this season.

Houston 

What to watch: The Cougars won the AAC regular-season championship and the league tournament last season, finishing 32-6 overall. And Kelvin Sampson’s squad did it almost entirely without two of his best players, Marcus Sasser and Tramon Mark, who played a combined 17 games. Sasser and Mark are healthy now and Sampson’s got a loaded roster worthy of the top-5 preseason rankings Houston has received. Ramon Walker Jr. and J’Wan Roberts figure to take a step forward, while incoming freshmen Jarace Walker (5-star forward) and Terrance Arceneaux (4-star guard) each have immediate-impact star potential.

Bottom line: The rich got a lot richer. Houston is the overwhelming favorite to repeat as AAC champion.

Memphis 

What to watch: Penny Hardaway got the Tigers back to the NCAA Tournament last season for the first time since 2014, then waved goodbye to 71.8% of his scoring. Rather than relying on reloading with top-flight high school recruits, Hardaway found reinforcements almost exclusively in the transfer portal. Kendric Davis (19.4 ppg, 3.4 rpg, 4.4 apg), one of the top transfers on the market, headlines a group that also includes Keonte Kennedy (14.1 ppg, 6.1 rpg) and Kao Akobundu-Ehiogu (4.7 ppg, 4.8 rpg, 2.6 bpg). Although, DeAndre Williams, Alex Lomax and Malcolm Dandridge are back.

Bottom line: How quickly the Tigers jell and whether they will have enough 3-point shooting will be big in determining how high their ceiling is.

SMU

What to watch: The Mustangs enjoyed a fine season in 2021-22, finishing 24-9 overall and 62^nd in KenPom’s rating system. But it wasn’t enough. SMU fell short of the NCAA Tournament again and it cost the program its coach (Tim Jankovich) and the AAC Player of the Year (Kendric Davis, now at Memphis). Guards Zach Nutall (6.8 ppg, 3.7 rpg) and Zhuric Phelps (3.8 ppg) represent the best of what SMU returns from last year’s team.

Bottom line: First-year coach Rob Lanier will need to cling to small victories this season, because actual victories will likely be few and far between.

South Florida 

What to watch: The Bulls come into this season in a weird position. They were not good last season, but they kept coach Brian Gregory and he didn’t do any major housecleaning in hopes of a fresh start. Sure, gone is top guard Caleb Murphy, who transferred to DePaul. But Jamir Chaplin (8.7 ppg, 4.4 rpg), Russel Tchewa (8.0 ppg, 5.7 rpg) and Corey Walker Jr. (5.5 ppg, 4.7 rpg) are back. On top of that, Gregory persuaded former Memphis guard Tyler Harris (8.8 ppg, 39.3% from three) and former South Carolina forward Keyshawn Bryant (14.4 ppg, 5.4 rpg) to link up with the Bulls.

Bottom line: On the surface, USF has all the makings of being an improved team. Even so, it won’t be enough to make any real noise. 

Temple 

What to watch: Despite dealing with injuries galore last season, the Owls clawed their way to a fourth-place finish after being picked to finish eighth in the preseason poll. Aaron McKie has the bulk of his producers back and healthy. Khalif Battle (who put up 21.4 ppg before going down with a season-ending injury seven games into the season) and Damian Dunn (14.9 ppg, 4.2 rpg) lead the way, giving Temple a backcourt that will rival both Houston and Memphis. The Owls were next-to-last in the AAC in average turnover margin (-0.9). That’s something that must be fixed if Temple is to make any major moves.

Bottom line: Battle and Dunn are a top-flight 1-2 punch, but Temple is much deeper than that. Between its talent, depth and experience, McKie’s team should get back to the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 2019.  

Tulane 

What to watch: The third-best offense in the AAC last season returns its top five scorers, a group that’s led by Jalen Cook (18.0 ppg) and Jaylen Forbes (16.5 ppg) who were third and fourth respectively in the league in points per game. The problem for Ron Hunter’s team last season, however, was defense. The Green Wave allowed an AAC-worst 71.3 points per game. Conventional wisdom says Tulane will be better on both sides of the ball. Rebounding – offensively and defensively – was a major problem and getting that corrected could make the Green Wave a contender.

Bottom line: It’s Year 4 of the Hunter era in New Orleans. The Green Wave were pesky in 2021-22. They could be a legitimate threat this season. 

Tulsa 

What to watch: The Golden Hurricane, the ninth-worst team in the AAC last season in scoring offense and scoring defense, have some nice pieces. Sam Griffin (14.6 ppg, 1.9 apg) figures to be the lynchpin, while Tim Dalger (4.7 ppg, 2.9 rpg) should enjoy a more prominent role. New coach Eric Konkol (who took over for Frank Haith, now an assistant at Memphis) did some good things at Louisiana Tech and the thought is he represents a solid fit at Tulsa.

Bottom line: Chances are, however, the Golden Hurricane will be facing an uphill battle all season. 

Wichita State 

What to watch: Things are going to look a lot different in Shocker country this season. Tulsa might be the only team in the AAC with more turnover than Wichita State. But what Isaac Brown’s team has coming back and what he has coming in is enough to inspire some confidence. Senior guard Craig Porter Jr. (7.3 ppg, 4.9 rpg) is back and it’s finally his show to run. Forward Kenny Pohto (5.4 ppg, 2.7 rpg) played well in spots as a freshman, so he provides the Shockers with some carryover in the frontcourt. Guard Xavier Bell (11.0 ppg) is originally from Wichita and is coming home after spending two seasons at Drexel, and former Southern Miss guard Jaron Pierre (10.0 ppg) adds even more depth in the backcourt.

Bottom line: Chances are the Shockers will be up and down, much like they were last season.

Preseason projections

Player of the year: Marcus Sasser, G, Houston

Rookie of the year: Jarace Walker, G, Houston

First Team

Marcus Sasser, G, Sr, Houston (6-2, 195)

Kendric Davis, G, Sr, Memphis (5-11, 180)

David DeJulius, G, Sr, Cincinnati (6-0, 200)

Jalen Cook, G, Soph, Tulane (6-0, 205)

Jarace Walker, F, Fr, Houston (6-8, 240)

Second Team 

DeAndre Williams, F, Sr, Memphis (6-9, 205)

Khalif Battle, G, Soph, Temple (6-5, 175)

Taylor Hendricks, F, Fr, UCF (6-9, 210)

Tramon Mark, G, Jr, Houston (6-5, 195)

Damian Dunn, C, Fr, Temple (6-5, 195)

Recruiting watch

Houston

The Cougars, who have become one of the top programs in the country by blending under-recruited prep players with transfers who fit their style, flexed their muscles by scoring 5-star Jarace Walker and 4-star Terrance Arceneaux.

Memphis 

After two No. 1 recruiting classes in a three-year span and three straight classes with at least one 5-star prospect, Penny Hardaway went in a much different direction. He landed the top-rated transfer on the market (Kendric Davis) and relied almost solely on the portal to revamp the Tigers’ roster.

Cincinnati

Wes Miller’s first full offseason as Bearcats coach was a fruitful one. He secured the league’s second-ranked recruiting class (No. 41 overall), headlined by 4-star guard Daniel Skillings.

UCF

The Knights vaulted into the mix by landing 4-star forward Taylor Hendricks, the second-highest ranked recruit (No. 64) is program history. They also picked up his 3-star brother, Tyler, along with a nice haul of transfers that includes 7-footer Michael Durr and veteran AAC wing Brandon Suggs.

Reach sports writer Jason Munz at jason.munz@commercialappeal.com or on Twitter @munzly.

This article originally appeared on Memphis Commercial Appeal: AAC basketball could be top-heavy again in 2022-23