ABC13's Elita Loresca answers your weather questions

Get the latest forecast details on when and where we expect potentially flooding rain.

Video Transcript

ELITA LORESCA: Good Tuesday morning, friends. As you saw there, lots of clouds in place on this Tuesday. We've seen a few showers and thunderstorms pop up. Thank you for joining me during this Facebook Live. I'm ABC 13 meteorologist Elita Loresca. Want to show you the estimated rainfall totals over the last three days because this is going to play a part as to what type of flooding we see this afternoon and during the evening hours. You can see most areas picking up between 1 to 3 inches of rain, right around the Houston area little over 2 inches.

So no major issues there. Where we've seen the issues are those areas that picked up over 5, even 10 inches of rain. Southwestern parts of Wharton County, right near Ganado, between 8 to 9 inches there on Sunday. And then yesterday, the bigger issues between Winnie and Beaumont picking up over 13 inches of rain there in those areas shaded in gray, Dasetta over 9 inches.

So if these areas pick up more rain as we get into the afternoon and evening hours, we will continue to see some flash flooding issues. The bayous and creeks are actually doing just fine. I've been checking these areas over the last few hours. And the waters have pretty much crested, have not gone over banks. They've stayed below banks in and around the San Jac at the 59. That's the area near Humble and not too far from Cy-Fair, Little Cypress Creek I should say around Becker Road is still looking good.

The flood threats for us through Thursday remain high on the street flooding issues. River flooding also will remain on the high end, creek flooding moderate levels, and bayou flooding will remain slight. But we'll have to monitor the trend as we continue through the day today and into tomorrow as a couple lines of showers and thunderstorms begin to build.

Flash flood watch remains in effect through 7 o'clock Thursday morning. Our thinking is still for rainfall totals between 4 to 8 inches. We did pick up a quick 1 to 3 inches of rain with those cluster of storms along the upper Texas coastline right around Galveston. But there will be isolated amounts of over 12 inches between now and Thursday morning. Those cluster of storms that developed around Galveston a couple of hours ago have weakened. But that flood advisory remains in effect, at least until 10:00 this morning. Could pick up an inch or so of rain.

Here is a look at the future track. And I want to show you a future track and let you know that the computer models have shifted a little bit from what I was showing earlier this morning on the morning show. So I want to show you some of the changes. The computer models have a pretty good handle of what's on the radar right now. So those showers and storms that are moving away from Galveston will be shifting into Liberty County over the next couple of hours.

And we'll actually see a lull in the rain and thunderstorm activity until about 3:00, 4 o'clock this afternoon. There could be a few quick moving rain showers early part of the afternoon. But approaching the evening commute is when we'll start to see the redevelopment of some widely scattered showers and thunderstorms. And right now, the latest models are pointing to areas along I-45 and to the West, and certainly away from the coastline. But headed closer toward Sunset, there could be some widely scattered showers down along the coastline.

Now this is concerning to me as we continue to monitor the line of rain and thunderstorms moving toward the area. Late Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning is where a line of heavy rain and storms seem to form right along I-35. So along the hill country and then pushing toward the Houston area early Wednesday morning. So right now, it does look like if this trend continues, if this computer model holds, we could be dealing with a very messy commute on Wednesday, especially North of I-10 along the coastline could be dealing with a few spotty rain showers.

But I think we see more of a widespread event happening North of I-10 up toward Liberty County and into Beaumont. We eventually see these showers and storms shifting toward the East by the lunchtime hour. But look what's out to the West. We see another squall line developing by lunchtime on Wednesday. This is a change from what I saw earlier this morning. Same model, but now they're picking up on a line of very heavy rain and potentially some strong gusty winds with this. The potential for some severe weather could be dealing with not only some damaging winds, but also the potential for some hail.

And these are the type of storms that could throw down those very high rainfall rates. This one looks to move fairly quickly toward the East but still bringing a lot of rain across the area through the evening hours. And then it does look like it makes that shift toward the East into Liberty County and Beaumont as we get closer toward Thursday morning. Now I know there's already a lot of concern out there about street flooding. And I just went over the highest threat that we could see with our flooding potential will be in the way of street flooding, and also some river flooding across the area.

Now the flood risk for today remains relatively low for the Houston area and down toward Galveston. But the further North you go, that flood risk increases to about 20% to 50% of where flash flooding could occur. It could occur anywhere within that 25 mile radius of where you're seeing those areas highlighted in red.

I'm anticipating our flood risk going up on Wednesday for a number of reasons. The area of low pressure, the upper level low that we've been monitoring for the last week or so, draws closer to us. And so that's going to send these disturbances in our direction. These disturbances as I just showed you with future track will be capable of producing those higher rainfall rates, those one to three inches per hour as we get into Wednesday afternoon, Wednesday night. And we are not done with that flood risk on Thursday, as there could be another wave of moisture heading in our direction.

And I know some of you guys have changes, or some questions. So I want to bring in our digital producer, Brittany Wilmore. Good morning, Brittany. What kind of questions are folks asking? I know a lot of people have questions for their particular area. And I'm guessing you probably have some of those questions lined up.

BRITTANY WILMORE: Yeah, I'm just here--

ELITA LORESCA: She's kind of scrolling through. Yes. If you're watching on Facebook, please feel free to drop me some comments or some questions. And I've got my digital producer standing by. And she'll be reading me some of those questions as I move forward and talk about the forecast.

BRITTANY WILMORE: A couple people are just talking about the rain they've already had over [INAUDIBLE] in Cleveland already someone said.

ELITA LORESCA: Over six inches in Cleveland. Yes, I can confirm that. As I just showed you, that map right at the top of my Facebook Live, I'll go back to it. Because I can easily scroll past this. But over the last three days, there's clearly been some bull's eyes, those areas picking up 5 to 10 inches. We saw that in the Beaumont, the Winnie area. So as I draw in closer to Cleveland, let me just show you here. I mean, Liberty County definitely impacted by some of the higher rainfall totals, especially the further East you go right around the Dasetta area, Cleveland over the last three days or so, picking up our radar is estimating anywhere between 2 to 4 inches of rain there.

Brittany, any other questions?

BRITTANY WILMORE: Yeah. So another question, people want to know what the weekend will look like.

ELITA LORESCA: OK, the weekend. So I'm going to go ahead and talk about-- I know many of you want to know when is this all going to clear up. We've got a few more days of this. This is day three. So our upper air pattern does not change on Wednesday. We still have that upper level low. But that upper level low becomes this open wave or dissipates, becomes less defined. And what takes over is this ridge of high pressure nosing in from the East. What this ridge is going to do, it's going to push that moisture from the Gulf back in our direction Thursday into Friday.

That's why we don't completely dry out. So there's this battle between that deeper tropical moisture, that deeper level of moisture, and that ridge of high pressure that does have some drier air blowing in. Now as that high pressure system builds from East to West, it will start to bring in, filter in some drier air. Unfortunately, that may not be until Sunday. So Friday's still looking at a pretty good rain chance. Even Saturday afternoon, that rain chance at about 40%. And it's finally on Sunday when we start to see that rain chance dropping.

And as of this morning, I can tell you our global models are looking pretty dry. In fact, the American model is getting us a little bit drier on Saturday. But both the European and the GFS, the American model, are both drying us out on Sunday. There's some model agreement, which is always great news. Any time you can get some model agreement this far out, that's always a good sign. And Monday we're also looking at a drier period.

Now it does look like that ridge of high pressure wants to nose back in toward the East. And as it does so, we'll start to see those rain chances picking up a bit by next week. But again, the problem that we're going to face is going to be in that Wednesday, Thursday time frame. We'll see that threat for flash flooding peak on Wednesday, where we have to monitor not just our streets, but we'll have to monitor our watersheds. Again, right now, our bayous and creeks are doing fine.

The water levels are below any sort of threshold of reaching over banks. There's about a handful though where you've got a few feet before you reach the top of that level. So we'll be monitoring that through the afternoon where those heavier rains, where they start to set up. It does look like the storms today should be moving. They won't be slow moving or training storms. Unfortunately for Wednesday, we could be dealing with more of this lower movement of storms and even the potential for some training storms, meaning that some of these storms that develop could move over some of those same areas that have already seen the flooding, or have already picked up those 5 to 10 inch rainfall totals.

So those are the areas that we'll continue to monitor for any more issues. Britt, before I close out, is there any other questions?

BRITTANY WILMORE: There are. There's been a lot more as people join in. People want to know about tornadoes and if storms can produce those. And a lot of people are dropping their neighborhood. So [INAUDIBLE].

ELITA LORESCA: Sure. A lot of people, what Brittany is saying is a lot of people want to know about the severe weather threat. There is going to be a slight threat for severe thunderstorms, especially with these supercell storms that do have the potential for some rotation. But it's not going to be a widespread event. But the primary threats for today will be some damaging winds and even some hail. But going forward into Wednesday, if we take you back to future track, and I will show you this, you see these storms pushing through, showing that the upper level winds could be extremely strong.

And you can see that the storms here well define the intensity of it. Any time you see those shades of orange and reds, that's intense rain. But also want to show you that by Wednesday afternoon, you start to see this squall line developing coming in from the I-35 corridor. So here we could be dealing with some straight line winds, we could be dealing with the potential for some hail as that storm system blows through the area for that evening commute.

So I think all modes of severe weather will be with us on Thursday. We're talking strong damaging winds, the potential for some hail, and maybe even a brief isolated tornado. But the highest threat of course is going to be the potential for some heavy rain across our area.

Latest radar, not looking too bad. So if you need to get some supplies or you're concerned about not having something between now and let's say Thursday, now is a good time as the radar is looking relatively quiet. We're still dealing with some showers and storms. But most of those storms now have shifted off to the East and making its way toward Louisiana.

All right, friends. That concludes our Facebook Live, unless Brittany, do you have any other questions you want me to hit?

BRITTANY WILMORE: Yeah. Well, people really want to know about their neighborhoods. So I don't know if you're able to walk through [INAUDIBLE] different locations [INAUDIBLE].

ELITA LORESCA: I get it. I get it. Any time we have this opportunity to ask questions, everybody's asking, OK, what about Splendora? What about Bay City? What about-- so the bottom line, guys, is the trends. We show you everybody is in the flash flood watch. Everybody is in the threat zone for seeing widespread rains and the potential for some flooding will remain high. Now I do want to show you this flood risk map because at least for today, it looks like the highest threat of seeing flash flooding in your area is going to be placed North and West of Houston and also to the East out toward Liberty County.

So those of you watching us in Bay City, that doesn't mean you're not going to see showers and storms today. It just means that any showers and storms that may pop up in your area should not cause any sort of flash flooding issues, or even major street flooding issues. It's the areas that have already been waterlogged, areas from Winnie out toward Beaumont, those of you in Cleveland, Northern parts of Liberty County, Eastern parts of Liberty County that picked up those 5 to 8 inch rainfall totals yesterday.

Because your areas are already saturated, you may be in for an increasing chance today of seeing some street flooding or maybe even some rapid rises in your watersheds.

Now going into Wednesday, as I mentioned, this is going to be when our peak event will take place as we get several rounds of intense rain and thunderstorms moving through the area. We will eventually see that flood risk drop as we get into Thursday. I know it's really hard, especially when you want to focus on your particular area because you want to know, is my area going to get the 5 to 10 inches? There's really no way of hitting that, of forecasting that.

What we can do is just show you the trends. And the trends are showing that some of those higher rainfall totals indeed are going to be right here in Southeast Texas because our atmosphere is favorable. All the ingredients are there for seeing these higher rainfall rates, those 1, 2, 3 inches per hour, and also the potential for some street flooding and maybe leading into some of our watersheds overflowing.

But for now, it does look like that threat for flooding should come to an end by the end of the week and then into the weekend looking much better. All right, you guys. 9:49. Thank you so much for joining us. We will continue to have these conversations, these Facebook Live opportunities. So make sure you follow us on social media. Of course, joining me or joining you during the midday will be meteorologist Rachel Briers. And then we've chief forecaster David Tillman, chief meteorologist Travis Herzog who will be joining all of you later on tonight.

And they too will be having these conversations with you so you can have the opportunity of asking questions about your particular neighborhood. And if I didn't answer your question specifically, don't worry. You can always reach me on Facebook, also on Instagram, and on Twitter. And I'm happy to answer any of your questions. So long for now. Stay weather aware. And you be safe out there, friends.