Is abortion access a winning issue for Biden in 2024? Democratic strategists weigh in

Dogged by record low approval ratings and diminished enthusiasm, President Joe Biden has turned to an issue that has fired up his base in the past: abortion.

At a campaign event in Virginia on Jan. 23, he sought to frame the coming election — which is likely to be a rematch of 2020 — as a referendum on the fate of women’s rights.

“It was Donald Trump and his Supreme Court who ripped away the rights and freedoms of women in America,” he said during the event. “And it will be Joe Biden and Kamala Harris and all of you who are going to restore those rights for the women of America.”

“Donald Trump is betting we won’t — you won’t vote on this issue,” he said. “Well, guess what? I’m betting he’s wrong.”

This battle-tested strategy, which proved successful in recent elections, is likely to pay off again, Democratic strategists and political analysts told McClatchy News, though it alone will not be enough to propel the president to victory.

‘One of the best issues that Democrats have’

“Abortion rights have historically been a deeply polarizing issue, capable of mobilizing voters on both sides of the aisle,” Matthew McDermott, a Democratic strategist, told McClatchy News.

But, the overturning of Roe v. Wade in 2022, which repealed the Constitutional right to an abortion, changed the game, galvanizing Democrats far more than Republicans, McDermott said.

The overwhelming majority of Democrats and left-leaning independents, 82%, disapproved of the court’s decision, according to a 2022 Pew Research Center poll, and 61% of Americans opposed it, according to a Gallup poll from July.

Since the high court’s landmark ruling, the issue of abortion has become a top concern for Democrats, driving them to the polls across the country — including in solidly conservative states.

During the 2022 midterm elections, when Biden faced similar low approval ratings and concerns about the economy, Republicans “underperformed expectations as voters in swing states around the country ranked abortion as the most important issue,” McDermott said.

In Michigan — a crucial swing state — Democratic Gov. Gretchen Whitmer romped to victory in 2022, partially because of the issue of abortion, Adrian Hemond, a state Democratic strategist, told McClatchy News.

“She was competitive in very conservative counties she had no business being competitive in…and that was because of the abortion issue,” Hemond said, noting there was a pro-abortion initiative on the ballot at the same time.

Even in Kansas, a solidly red state, voters turned out in large numbers to reject an anti-abortion amendment in 2022.

“Everybody knows that this is one of the best issues that Democrats have in the quiver,” Hemond said.

“It’s a way to frame the election around specific, stark policy differences — that make a real impact on everyday voters,” McDermott said.

Trump says he’s open to compromise

Trump, who is expected to win the GOP nomination, has recently toned down some of his sharper anti-abortion rhetoric.

During a Fox News town hall in Iowa, he told voters he favored certain exceptions — including in the case of rape and incest — and was open to finding common ground on the issue.

“We’re living in a time when there has to be a little bit of a concession in one way or another,” he said in the town hall.

This change in tone, however, is unlikely to neutralize the abortion issue in the election for Republicans, Jacob Neiheisel, a politics professor at the University at Buffalo, told McClatchy News.

“Party issue reputations are very ‘sticky,’” Neiheisel said. “As a result, I think that Republicans across the board will struggle to distance themselves from their party’s reputation as being anti-abortion.”

By appointing three conservative justices to the Supreme Court, Adrian said Trump was squarely responsible for Roe v. Wade being overturned.

“It’s not possible to unring that bell,” Adrian said.

Other issues

The issue of abortion alone, however, will not be enough to push Biden — who is losing to Trump in several recent nationwide polls — across the finish line, Leslie Marshall, a Democratic strategist and Fox News contributor, told McClatchy News.

“This is going to be a very tight race,” Marshall said. “He can’t ignore issues that are important to all voters, Republicans especially, and that’s the economy and immigration.”

On these issues, Biden has significant ground to cover, according to recent polling.

In a Morning Consult poll in October, 49% of likely voters in seven swing states trusted Trump to handle the economy, while 35% trusted Biden.

Similarly, just 38% of voters in a Harvard CAPS-Harris poll published in December said they approved of Biden’s handling of immigration.

Additionally, a growing number of Americans view foreign policy as a top issue in the 2024 election, according to a AP-NORC poll in January.

On this front, Biden has been hemorrhaging support among young voters. Nearly three-quarters of voters between the ages of 18 and 29 disapprove of Biden’s handling of Israel’s war in Gaza, according to a New York Times/Siena College poll from December.

Biden would be wise not to neglect these issues as well, Marshall said.

“You can’t just say ‘I’m not Trump, and Trump is bad,” Marshall said. “That’s not going to work.”

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