Abortion decision a ‘watershed moment for both parties,’ political analyst says

Pangaea Policy Founder Terry Haines joins Yahoo Finance Live to discuss the ripple effects of the Supreme Court's vote to overturn 'Roe v. Wade', as well as the outlook for the midterm elections.

Video Transcript

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JULIE HYMAN: Well, the Supreme Court ruling to overturn Roe v. Wade being felt across the nation, as Americans grasp the implications of this historic decision. Joining us now for more on the political impact of it all is Pangaea Policy founder Terry Haines. Terry, it's a pleasure to see you. And, you know, you have a lot of insight into these matters. So I'm curious, as we look ahead to the midterms, which will, before we know it, be upon us, how you're sort of handicapping how this will affect everything.

TERRY HAINES: Hi, Julie. It's a pleasure to be with you, as always. My handicapping of this basically is that, you know, I think-- let's put it this way. Republicans now have an intensity advantage because of concern about the economy. The general view that, you know, the first two years of a presidency tend to raise unpopularity ratings and controversies across the board, that's certainly been the case with President Biden.

And then you get a situation where you have a major decision like this. I tend to think it's a wash. And I don't mean that it fades or goes away. I just think it's a wash. I think certainly, the intensity ramps up on the pro-abortion side, which is largely Democratic. But I think that the intensity level continues to ramp up on the Republican side as well, as that a lot of these pro-life folks begin to think that they might have more trouble in states.

You know, nobody really got everything they wanted here. Even the ostensible winning side, you know, would have liked a lot more out of the court than just saying, look, you know, we made a mistake 49 years ago. We shouldn't be involved in this as a constitutional matter. So we're returning it to the states, which is actually what happened. You know, they'd like much more than that.

And now they're-- you know, their battlegrounds will be in the states. And so there's going to be a lot of intensity on both sides. But I think net, net, you still have more intensity, by and large, on the Republican side, kind of the anti-incumbent side, just because of the economy, frankly. I still think this is an election about the economy.

BRAD SMITH: Terry, just pulling this back here, you know, even away from the economy for a second. This is still a population that a majority of people have said they are for women's rights. They are for the access to abortion as well. And there has been economic data that's been submitted to the Supreme Court and to the committees who were reviewing this case. There has also been data that has shown, it has literally saved lives of Black American women, who have seen the maternity mortality rates drop by 28% to 40%. So in the face of all of this data, this decision was still made. What does that say to you, going into this midterm?

TERRY HAINES: Well, the decision was made. You know, the threshold question-- and I'm not pleading for the court, here by the way, but I am stating what I think is a fact that, you know, the court's view was that it was a threshold matter. Should they, as a matter of constitutional law, which is the principle function of the court, you know, be involved in the question at all? And to them, the answer was no, and that the remedy is that it ought to be sent back to the states, where it was for the vast majority of the country's history. Again, not pleading, just saying.

You know, and net, net, though, I think what you have now is, you've got a majority of people, certainly, that want continued access to abortion rights. There's an awful lot of people in this country as well that want restrictions on that access. And this is going to get thrashed out in the states, as you know.

So, you know, and there is a mosaic, which I know is on the screen right now, or was, that shows where the states are. And there's going to be a number of battlegrounds between here and the election. And as far as-- the midterm elections. And as far as this goes, I think there's more likely to be some bigger changes, in an electoral sense, in states, rather than the federal government, because state governments is where all these issues are going to get decided.

JULIE HYMAN: And I guess, to go back to the question of sort of activation, as you put it, of the two sides of this debate, and, indeed, the two sides of the aisle, more broadly, it's not just about, you know, I'm a lone voter out there, getting fired up about these issues. It's also about the party being able to tap into that passion. And as we have seen over the past three decades, the Republican Party has been more effective at that, I think it's safe to say. The question is, is anything changing inside the Democratic Party that would allow it to be more effective at tapping into that?

TERRY HAINES: You know, the Democratic Party, I think, has to make a decision on that. You know, I think over the last 50 years, there have been varying degrees of effectiveness on both sides. But the Democratic Party is going to have to tap into that and, frankly, I think, figure out whether it wants to posture or be serious. This is a threshold question for a political party on pretty much every issue.

But when-- you know, when the-- what became the Alito decision first leaked a month or two ago, the immediate response of the Democratic Party in Washington was to come up with a bill that pretty much, regardless of what you thought of it, was guaranteed not to capture 60 votes in the Senate, that would allow debate on the bill to proceed, and not capture pro-choice Republicans, like Senator Collins, Senator Murkowski, and others. So, you know, they knew in advance that, you know, as a tactic, that what they wanted to do was have something that didn't succeed.

The question for the party now, both nationally and in states, is, do they want to make something that's workable? Do they want to-- you know, let's assume for the purposes of our discussion here that, you know, most Americans support abortion access and most Americans support restrictions somehow. You know, will they take that more common sense tack, or will they not?

And you saw an example of how the more reasonable common sense course in bipartisan course could happen. It's much harder here. But you saw this with the gun debate, where, after 10 years or so, the parties came around common sense solutions on background checks and on red flag laws and on mental health, you know, those sorts of things.

You know, it's a watershed moment for both parties because both parties get to decide whether or not they want to continue to be serious or whether they want to continue to posture. They've had the luxury for the past-- you know, most of the past half century largely of posturing because of where the Supreme Court was. Now they don't get to do that anymore.

BRIAN SOZZI: Terry, you wrote to us that President Biden doesn't have much political capital to push back on this decision. So then stepping back, what does that mean for him getting anything major done reform wise in the remaining years of his presidency?

TERRY HAINES: Anything on this or on any issue?

BRIAN SOZZI: In general.

TERRY HAINES: OK. Well, you know, I think I wrote that President Biden has no political capital. And I say that not in a partisan sense. I think that's been demonstrated. You know, the president and the White House have been unsuccessful in getting anything called Build Back Better done for the last year.

When the gun negotiations started, the president had made a statement, you know, wanted to try to be involved, and was told by the bipartisan group of senators, look, it's going to be a whole lot better if you're not involved in this. And that was public. I'm not saying anything out of school here. So, and, you know, they ended up succeeding. Biden ends up signing the bill, you know, gets some credit for that.

But, you know, by and large, what you've seen in the first two years of the Biden presidency is that he has-- does not have the ability to convince Democratic centrists to move on things, from the vast majority of things. He doesn't have the ability to get the progressives, for whom he tries to do a lot, to come together around particular solutions.

And that discord makes it difficult to impossible for him to reach across the aisle and try to work with Republicans. So, you know, so whatever happens in Washington-- and as I say, the gun business is the best recent example of this-- it's going to happen in spite of the president, not because of it.

BRAD SMITH: Pangaea Policy founder Terry Haines, thanks for the time today.