Be ready for some surprises when lawmakers return to Richmond for General Assembly session

There’s a rule of thumb Alex Keena follows when it comes to politics: Expect the unexpected.

“At the end of the day, we just don’t know what’s going to happen,” said Keena, assistant professor of political science at Virginia Commonwealth University.

“Who knows what sort of crisis could pop up suddenly that could completely change legislative priorities?”

The Virginia General Assembly will convene for its legislative session later this week in Richmond. No one has a crystal ball when it comes to politics, but Keena and a handful of legislators say it’s likely that abortion, tax cuts and mental health will be among the issues that take center stage. But with a divided General Assembly, questions remain about how much can get done.

Republicans control the House of Delegates and the governor’s mansion while Democrats hold a slim majority in the Senate.

Keena believes legislators will find common ground on mental health this year, as recent mass shootings in Virginia have spotlighted the need for more mental health resources.

But he suspects tax cuts will be a point of contention, with Republicans backing Gov. Glenn Youngkin’s recent proposal for extensive cuts and Democrats arguing the General Assembly has other priorities.

“I can imagine an impasse over taxes and then a special session needing to be called,” he said.

Keena said measures to restrict reproductive rights would face an uphill battle in the Senate, but he said at least one Democratic senator, Joe Morrissey of Richmond, is a known “wild card” when it comes to abortion.

“I will be interested in seeing what happens,” Keena said.

Here’s a breakdown:

Mental health

Amid recent mass shootings and a pandemic that strained social services, Republicans and Democrats appear to be on the same page when it comes to the need for more mental health support.

“I think there will be a lot of opportunity there to work in a bipartisan manner,” said House Majority Leader Terry Kilgore, a Scott County Republican. “Both sides have been pushing for more funding.”

Youngkin’s recently unveiled budget proposal included a plan that would provide $230 million for sweeping mental and behavioral health reforms.

The Right Help, Right Now initiative would allow for the creation of 30 mobile crisis teams and expand school-based mental health programs, among other provisions. It would also increase the number of crisis centers in southwest Virginia and Hampton Roads.

House Minority Leader Don Scott, of Portsmouth, said Democrats might advocate for additional investments but are supportive of the governor’s proposal.

“We think this is a good start,” he said.

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Abortion

The debate over abortion in Virginia heated up this year after the U.S. Supreme Court overturned the landmark Roe v. Wade ruling in June.

“It’s going to be a big issue (this session),” Kilgore said.

Under state law, abortions are allowed during the first and second trimester. They’re also allowed in the final three months of pregnancy if three physicians agree the pregnancy will lead to a woman’s death or substantially impair her mental or physical health.

Youngkin has said he will push to ban abortions after 15 weeks, with exceptions for rape, incest and to protect the life of the mother.

“The governor has staked out a good compromise,” Kilgore said. “It’s going to be a tough row with the Democratic Senate, but it’s always possible.”

Scott said Democrats will fight any measure to restrict abortion access.

“We are going to make sure that we protect women and their right to bodily autonomy and to make their own reproductive decisions,” he said.

Democrats were alarmed by a provision in Youngkin’s budget proposal allocating $50,000 toward the potential 15-week ban, Scott said, and think it indicates the governor intends for those who violate the ban to serve time in jail. Scott believes it’s intended to offset the additional costs to the state’s correctional facilities.

Youngkin spokesperson Macaulay Porter did not respond to a request for comment.

While there has been much recent debate about abortion, at least one legislator isn’t anticipating a large-scale showdown.

Del. Glenn Davis, R-Virginia Beach, said he doubts most Republicans will focus on abortion during a year when Democrats hold the Senate.

“I don’t actually think you’re going to see a lot of time spent on that because the outcome is a foregone conclusion,” said Davis, adding he believes a Senate committee would kill any bill restricting abortion. “I think the time could be better spent on issues that could really move the needle.”

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Tax cuts

Youngkin, who made lowering taxes a cornerstone of his gubernatorial campaign, recently laid out a proposal with $1 billion in tax cuts for residents and businesses.

Among the governor’s recommendations: reducing the corporate income tax rate from 6% to 5%, increasing the standard income tax deductions for individuals and joint filers, and expanding tax exemptions on veterans’ pensions by eliminating age requirements.

Kilgore said the proposed cuts will be a top priority for Republican legislators.

“With hard economic times right now for our citizens, I think putting more money in their pockets is always a good move,” he said.

Scott said Republicans can expect pushback, especially on efforts to reduce the corporate tax rate. Virginia’s corporate taxes rank in the middle nationally and don’t need to be lower, he said.

“If we can create a business-friendly environment for small businesses to benefit, that is fine, but giveaways to large corporations that don’t need them, that makes no sense,” he said.

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Other measures: Firearms, renter protections, same-sex marriage

In the wake of two recent mass shootings, Scott said Democrats will put forth a bill to implement a waiting period on firearm purchases.

The gunman who fatally shot six people at a Chesapeake Walmart on Nov. 22 had legally purchased the firearm that day, Scott said. He believes a waiting period could help prevent impulsive acts of violence.

“We had already been discussing it before, but when the Walmart shooting happened, it definitely moved it to the front of the line,” he said, adding he hopes some Republicans might support the measure.

Others said it’s unlikely to gain momentum. Keena believes it would take support from the governor to get any GOP backing in the General Assembly.

“I just don’t see it happening,” he said.

Scott said constituents can also expect to see some familiar legislation returning.

During last year’s session, Youngkin unexpectedly vetoed 26 bills from Democrats that had received strong bipartisan support.

One was a measure from Portsmouth Democrat Nadarius Clark that would have set a three-year statute of limitations on suing to recover medical debt.

Another was a housing bill from Price that would have given localities the authority to sue negligent landlords over matters that endanger tenants’ health.

“Those two bills are coming back,” Scott said. “These are bipartisan ideas.”

Price said she worked on her bill after hearing from tenants across the commonwealth who couldn’t get landlords to fix a range of serious problems, such as mold, broken heat and rodent infestations.

“I do remain hopeful that the bill will pass,” she said. “Nothing has changed about the need.”

Another well-publicized measure from Democrats will return after being shot down by House Republicans last year — but this time, it’s coming from a Republican.

Del. Tim Anderson, of Virginia Beach, has submitted legislation that would remove language banning same-sex marriage from the state’s constitution. Davis is a co-patron.

Virginia’s constitution defines marriage as being between one man and one woman, meaning same-sex marriages wouldn’t be protected by state law if the Supreme Court overturned the ruling that legalized it nationwide.

In an email to The Pilot, Anderson described his measure as a simplified version of the Democrats’ previous bill and said it would not insert a new definition of marriage.

“This is a conservative principle. Less government, more freedom,” he said. “Removing language like this promotes fundamental fairness in that the state must sell a marriage license to a same-sex couple just like it sells drivers licenses to straight and gay drivers.”

Constitutional amendments must pass the General Assembly for two years in a row, and then pass a public vote, before taking effect.

Katie King, katie.king@virginiamedia.com