From abortion rights to Democratic upsets: These are the races to watch ahead of 2024

A year out from the 2024 presidential election, voters will decide on some important statewide races and referendums that will clue the country in about their mood next year.

Republicans scored the first blow by easily flipping Louisiana's gubernatorial seat, where Attorney General Jeff Landry coasted to victory earlier this month.

The win shocked many political observers, who thought at the very least there would be a runoff election. It signals a hard right turn for the state.

But Democrats and their progressive allies remain optimistic the Pelican State won't be the closing narrative before the nation's eyes turn to the White House contest.

There are four separate fields where voters can have an impact, including an abortion amendment in Ohio and a surprising nail-biter for governor in Mississippi.

Other elections that might have national ramifications are the Virginia legislative races, where Gov. Glenn Youngkin (still mentioned as a possible presidential contender) is looking to consolidate power on his conservative agenda.

There is also Kentucky, where Democratic Gov. Andy Beshear is looking to fend off a Republican foe in a state the GOP has dominated. Here's what you need to know about these crucial races ahead of Election Day.

Ohio could mark another abortion win for progressives

Since the U.S. Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade, the landmark 1973 decision that guaranteed abortion rights, activists looking to protect access to the procedure have scored six straight wins in statewide referendums.

The winning streak is longer if you count the state Supreme Court race in Wisconsin as a proxy battle.

Progressive activists are bullish that the trend will continue when voters answer their position on Ohio's Issue 1, a ballot initiative that seeks to fortify abortion rights in the state Constitution.

"We have not yet lost when the vote has gotten in front of the people," said Rachel O'Leary Carmona, executive director of Women's March.

"The post-Dobbs decision has demonstrated that public opinion has moved on abortion for the first time in many decades, and it has moved away from these types of bans and restrictions and toward reproductive freedom," she said, referencing the Supreme Court's decision last year.

A USA TODAY Network/Suffolk University poll in July found roughly 58% of Buckeye State voters supported the statewide proposal, which would effectively eliminate many of the GOP-sponsored bans and restrictions on abortion.

Frank Pavone, national director of Priests for Life, a leading anti-abortion group, told USA TODAY that there is a still a chance the conservative side could win the referendum in Ohio but that anti-abortion activists have emphasized different strategies, including lobbying state legislators on restrictions.

He described ballot initiatives as "soundbite voting" that gives people a shallow idea of what they're voting about and what abortion really entails, for instance.

"The real focus, and the real progress, has been on the legislative level rather than these direct ballot initiatives," Pavone said. "And the reason that I say that's the legislative process more important, is because that's where people can really wrestle with what abortion is what abortion does, and enable under what conditions it should be legal."

Youngkin eyes Virginia wins over White House bid

Virginia's Youngkin remains a darling of the national Republican Party as donors continue to tug at him to run for president in 2024.

But just as many conservative-leaning Virginia voters are urging the 56-year-old incumbent to stay put and focus on the GOP winning control of the state Legislature, where all 140 seat are up for grabs this fall.

New legislative maps in Virginia have stirred the political pot by creating new, open seats that have stuffed multiple incumbent lawmakers in the same districts, either forcing retirements or sparking bitter battles.

But if Virginia voters send a message to the rest of the nation ahead of 2024, it won't be solely about local leaders. At stake is Youngkin’s conservative agenda, including a 15-week abortion ban Democratic legislators have blocked.

J. Miles Coleman, associate editor of Sabato's Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia, said it would be a blow to Youngkin's potential national ambitions with base voters if his party comes up short in November.

"Because unlike say (Georgia) Gov. Brian Kemp or (Florida) Gov. Ron DeSantis, he really hasn't been able to pass a whole slate of conservative legislation that he can point to and say to Republicans, 'This is why you should nominate me,'" Coleman said.

On the flip side, he said, if Democrats keep control, Youngkin could keep his relatively high approval ratings and be recast as a more moderate leader who can work with opponents.

All of this matters because Virginia more than most states is looked at as one of the nation’s best political fortune-tellers.

Democrats still hopeful for Mississippi upset

Republicans at the start of the year told USA TODAY that Democrats were selling the country a "mirage" to think the Mississippi governor's seat could be flipped.

The deeply conservative state hasn't had Democratic chief executive in roughly two decades, but incumbent Tate Reeves' low approval rating and Democratic challenger Brandon Presley's record fundraising and disciplined messaging has kept national eyes on the contest.

Now, in the final weeks of the fall election, there are signs this could be a nail-biter.

For much of the race Reeves has struggled to get at 50% or more in most polls, which have consistently shown Presley, a state utility regulator and second cousin to Elvis Presley, within reach.

At the beginning of October, for instance, a survey had Reeves up by as much as 8 percentage points at 51%. The most recent yardstick of the race, conducted by Public Policy Polling on behalf of the Democratic Governors Association, had Presley down by just 1% with neither candidate above 50%.

Some Mississippi Republicans are sounding an alarm, especially after election forecasters with The Cook Political Report moved the Magnolia State contest from "likely Republican" to the "lean Republican" column.

Jessica Taylor, an editor with Cook, said Reeves still holds the edge, but Mississippi has "morphed into a competitive fight."

Is Beshear unbeatable in Kentucky? Republicans look to take back the state

Democratic Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear continues to vex Republicans, who, led by challenger Daniel Cameron, the state's attorney general, have thrown every kitchen-sink attack ad to bring the popular incumbent's poll numbers down.

The Bluegrass State is controlled by GOP officials in almost every other corner, from supermajorities in the Legislature to other statewide offices, save its urban center of Louisville.

But Beshear, son of former Gov. Steve Beshear, has been immune, despite Cameron's heavy reliance on crime, COVID-19 shutdowns and culture war issues that typical spell doom for Democrats.

"Beshear has run circles around Cameron in terms of fundraising and getting his message out," Coleman said. "Think he's done a good job of painting, you know, making his own brand that kind of separates him from the national party."

One area where that advantage has played out is on abortion, which the Beshear campaign has leaned into with hard-hitting TV spots.

In one such ad, a young woman who says she was raped as a 12-year-old child looks at the camera and slams Cameron for supporting a state law that prohibits victims of rape and incest from obtaining abortions.

What could change the race dramatically in the attorney general's favor, some observers suggest, is a last-minute appearance by former President Donald Trump, who has endorsed Cameron.

Trump is immensely popular in Kentucky, but that didn't work out for the Republican incumbent Beshear defeated in 2019.

Sabato's Crystal Ball rates Kentucky as "leans Democratic," and, at the moment, Cameron winning would be considered an upset by most prognosticators.

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: 2023 races to watch: Ohio's abortion vote, Virginia's GOP leaders