(WHTM) — Data released this week by Franklin and Marshall College’s Center for Opinion Research shows that abortion rights likely gave Democrats an advantage in the Pennsylvania 2023 municipal election.

Following the election, the Center found most Southeastern and Southcentral counties, as well as the Lehigh Valley, had an increase in Democratic vote share. Data also showed that the five counties with the largest increase in voter turnout also leaned blue.

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These findings come after Democrats across the country, following the U.S. Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe v. Wade in 2022, hammered the issue of abortion rights in their recent campaigns.

Though the Center noted that a lack of exit poll data made it difficult to interpret the 2023 municipal election returns, they say an emphasis on abortion rights “probably helped drive” voter turnout and Democratic victories.

In 2023, the Democratic Party saw wins in many key elections including in the presidential battleground state of Pennsylvania.

One of these wins was Pennsylvania’s high-profile Supreme Court race, in which Democrat Dan McCaffery prevailed over Republican candidate Carolyn Carluccio.

During the campaign, McCaffery allies attacked Carluccio on the issue of abortion, arguing she could not be trusted to uphold state abortion protections. One ad called her “deceitful and dishonest” and claims that pro-life views were removed from her website.

In response, Carluccio claimed to be apolitical and denied the claims about her website. She also said she would uphold the state law that makes abortion legal through 24 weeks.

Leading up to the election, though, she was endorsed by multiple anti-abortion groups including the Pennsylvania Pro-Life Federation and Pro-Life Coalition of Pennsylvania.

Ultimately, McCaffery beat Carluccio by seven points, 53.5% to 46.5%, according to the Center and the total voter turnout was 39.2%, slightly higher than the turnout for the 2021 Supreme Court race, which was 31.7%. In that race, Republican Kevin Brobson beat Democrat Maria McLaughlin by less than one point, 50.4% to 49.6%.

A chart released by F&M comparing the county-level results for Democratic vote share in the 2021 and 2023 state supreme court elections, shows that McCaffery won a larger vote share than McLaughlin in 48 of the Pennsylvania’s 67 counties.

The chart also shows that three counties, Berks, Bucks, and Dauphin counties flipped from Republican to Democrat between 2021 and 2023. Only one county (Erie County) went from Democrat to Republican, the chart shows.

“What makes the abortion issue most perilous for Republicans right now, at least in Pennsylvania, is that even Republican-leaning voters think that Democrats’ views on abortion are more in line with majority opinion,” said Berwood Yost, Director of the Franklin & Marshall College Poll. “This is the only instance where partisan leaners think the other party better represents majority opinion.”

Center of Opinion Research Methodology

“A multiple regression analysis was run to predict the county-level vote share for the Democratic Supreme Court candidate from 2021 Democratic vote share and college attainment for each county. These variables predicted the 2023 democratic vote share (F(2, 64)=635.1, p. < .001, adj. R2=.95) and both added significantly to the prediction, p. < .05.”

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