Abortion ruling may throw a 'lifeline' to vulnerable Democrats in midterms | Stile

While fielding questions at his "Women's Health Town Hall,'' U.S. Rep. Tom Malinowski, D-Hunterdon, sounded at times like a grief counselor as supporters vented fear, frustration and confusion about the recent U.S. Supreme Court's rollback of Roe v. Wade, the 50-year-old ruling that established a constitutional right to abortion.

But Malinowski, who is facing an uphill battle this fall as he seeks his third term in the sprawling — and much redder — 7th Congressional District, also made it clear that he intends to harness that town hall anger into a political weapon against his Republican challenger, former state Sen. Thomas H. Kean Jr., of Westfield.

Twice during the event, Malinowski took pains to remind attendees that Kean voted against a state law that would formally enshrine a woman's right to an abortion in New Jersey, before leaving the Legislature in January. That law, signed by Gov. Phil Murphy in January, was enacted as a kind of insurance policy in the likely event of the Supreme Court's striking down Roe.

"It's a particularly easy issue to message on, because most people in this district, I can assure you, supported Roe v. Wade and did not think it should be torn to shreds and believe that it should be codified,'' Malinowski said. "Tom Kean Jr. is on the wrong side of all those questions."

The Dobbs v. Jackson Women's Health Organization decision, which revoked the right to an abortion and handed the power to regulate the procedure back to the states and Congress, is forcing a dramatic re-scrambling of the midterm contests for Congress this fall.

For Democrats, staring at a gloomy midterm forecast this fall as President JoeBiden's popularity sags under the weight of rising inflation and interest rates, the Supreme Court's ruling is a political blessing in disguise, an issue that could electrify a demoralized Democratic base into action.

Kyle Kondik, who tracks congressional races for Sabato's Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia Center for Politics, says this Roe reversal could serve as a "lifeline" for Malinowski, whose Democratic voter advantage shrank substantially after the redistricting last November.

Kondik's prognosis could also apply to virtually any swing-district Democrat, like Malinowski, staring at the headwinds this fall. Typically, the party of the president loses ground in the midterm election.

"It gives [Malinowski] something to talk about ... to basically try to make the election about something other than it being a effectively a referendum on Biden, and inflation, which is not where any Democrat wants to be,'' Kondik said.

For Republicans seeking to challenge Democrats in competitive districts, the development complicates their almost cruise-control campaign of bashing Biden over rising gasoline prices, baby formula shortages and inflation. Abortion has now upended the easy narrative.

It's an issue New Jersey Republicans would rather let lie dormant and settled, and with good reason. A recent New York Times survey found that 63% of New Jersey residents believe abortion should be legal in all cases, compared with 33% who believed it should be illegal.

The ruling now threatens to rouse that longtime support into a front-burner issue. An NPR-Marist poll taken after the ruling hinted at signs of a backlash. It found that 56% of all adults and 53% of independents opposed the decision.

It also raised a red flag for Republicans running insuburban swing districts. It found that 66% of suburban women said they opposed it, including 70% of white women who graduated from college.

All of this puts Republicans on a tight wire. No longer catering to hard-core conservatives for the primary, GOP House candidates are now campaigning in a broader-based general electorate and in a state where abortion rights are strongly supported.

But they now must try campaigning in a way that doesn't alienate their base voters while not scaring away more moderate voters, particularly educated, suburban women angered at the court's ruling.

The new environment has prompted the GOP to shift to a strategy that swerves around trouble — and then goes on the attack. In the wake of the ruling, some Republicans generally stated their overall position on abortion rights, while avoiding condemning or endorsing the ruling. They then quickly pivoted to attack mode, slamming the Democrats as "extremists" for backing the state law or federal legislation that certified a woman's right to an abortion past the time of fetal viability, which is roughly 22 to 24 weeks.

Kean's campaign offered a clear example.

In a statement, Kean stressed that he is pro-choice "with reasonable restrictions" but added that "the only candidate in this race with an extreme position on this issue is Tom Malinowski who has continued to vote to legalize abortions right up until the moment of birth,'' a reference to Malinowski's vote in May to codify abortion rights into federal law. The measure, which failed in the Senate, called for eliminating governmental restrictions on abortions and would have prohibited states from banning late-term abortions if the provider deemed the patient's life or health at risk.

Bob Healey, a Republican candidate seeking to oust Democratic incumbent Andy Kim in the 3rd Congressional District, followed the same playbook.

"Today's decision was expected and, despite the scare tactics my opponent will promote, it changes nothing regarding New Jersey law,'' he said in a statement. Healey said he opposes abortion except in cases of rape or incest or when the mother's life is in danger.

Healey asserted that this position is"mainstream" while Kim holds "extreme views" and sides with "Governor Murphy and other radicals in his party who believe in expanded access to late-term abortions."

Frank Pallotta, a Republican nominee for the 5th Congressional District in North Jersey, is also a staunch foe of abortion except in cases where the mother's health or life is in danger. He saluted the Supreme Court ruling, but also noted that it won't have any bearing on New Jersey's abortion protections.

Pallotta then quickly went after his opponent, Rep. Josh Gottheimer, D-Wyckoff, as — not surprisingly — an extremist. And Gottheimer — not surprisingly — countered by branding Pallotta as an extremist.

"His radical position is a horrific breach of privacy and freedom that will roll back the clock in New Jersey and the nation, putting millions of women's lives and health at risk,'' Gottheimer said through a statement.

Paul DeGroot, the Republican challenger trying to unseat Rep. Mikie Sherrill, D-Montclair, in the 11th Congressional District, which spans parts of Morris, Passaic and Essex counties, gave the clearest illustration of a New Jersey Republican tiptoeing through the minefield of abortion policy.

In a statement, DeGroot declined to condemn or endorse the ruling, saying only that abortion laws should be left to the states. He did not declare his position on abortion.

But DeGroot accused Sherill of trying to "distract from her record and support of the Biden/Pelosi policies that are causing record inflation, sky-high gasoline prices, and baby formula and other basic essentials to be missing from the shelves."

Despite New Jersey's pro-choice support, the public has shown some willingness to accept more nuanced views of its officials. In 1999, a Republican Legislature and pro-choice Gov. Christie Whitman approved a parental notification requirement for minors, but it was struck down a year later by the state Supreme Court as unconstitutional.

Republican Gov. Chris Christie slashed funding for Planned Parenthood clinics and vetoed attempts to restore the funds, without facing much of a political outcry. And Jack Ciattarelli, the Republican candidate for governor last year, nearly pulled off an upset despite opposing the Reproductive Freedom Act, the measure that enshrined abortion rights and moreinto New Jersey law.

But some Democratic activists say the alarm extends beyond the issue of reproductive rights. In a concurring opinion in the Dobbs ruling that discarded Roe last week, Associate Justice Clarence Thomas asserted that other court precedents that codified protections for same-sex marriage, same-sex relationships and contraception access could also be rescinded.

One participant in Malinowski's town hall named Patricia raised fears that the ruling could be the start of a broad dismantling of individual rights that had long been settled in past rulings.

"I know some Republicans are now floating re-criminalizing same-sex romantic activity and having those laws spring back into effect,'' she said. "So there is no bottom to what they'll do."

This article originally appeared on NorthJersey.com: Stile: Overturning Roe may have handed Democrats an election lifeline