Will abstainers sway France's presidential election?

STORY: Eighteen-year-old Capucine Blond is able to vote for the first time in France’s presidential election on Sunday (April 10).

But the part time worker says she feels so disillusioned with and disconnected from the choice of candidates, that she has decided not to cast a ballot.

"They are not living in the reality of everyday life, in fact. The reality of daily life, increased living costs, for example, grocery shopping. When you have salaries where you don't need to count every penny, it's easy and you don't see the difference, whereas when you have low salaries, you see the difference right away once the price of something increases."

And she is not alone.

Pollster Ipsos last month forecast a record number of voters would abstain from this month's election.

If confirmed, analysts say this would raise the likelihood of a surprise result.

History has shown that the higher the abstention rate in the first round of voting, the lower the hurdle candidates have to clear in order to qualify.

The presidential race appears to be a re-run of the 2017 duel between incumbent President Emmanuel Macron and far-right challenger Marine Le Pen.

This time, however, polls suggest a more close-fought contest - meaning every vote counts.

Le Pen’s presidential campaign has gained momentum in recent days.

On Monday (April 4) she captured 48.5% of voter intentions in an opinion poll of a likely runoff against Macron - the highest score she has ever notched.

The Harris Interactive poll for business magazine Challenges said a Macron victory - which pollsters had considered almost a foregone conclusion - was now within the margin of error.

Turnout rates in French elections have been decreasing since the 1980s. In 2017, more than a fifth of voters sat out at least one round, according to Interior Ministry data.

A disproportionate number of them were among the youth.

Like drama graduate Louis Labarthette.

The 25-year-old works part-time in a restaurant kitchen.

In 2017 he voted for Macron to keep Le Pen out of power. This time, he says he plans to abstain.

He says he feels let down by Macron’s results over his five-year term.

"Because I think the situation hasn't changed, the politicians are the same and are still there for the same thing, namely for the money, and they'll just try to get as much of it as possible, without giving a thought to what the people want, and they get elected to take money off our backs."

Ipsos forecast that nearly a third of voters may sit out this month's election.

That would be a record for a presidential vote in France.

Among 18- to 25-year-olds, 42% say they may not vote, according to a recent poll.