AccuWeather forecasters monitor snow prospects for Midwest, Northeast
Heading into the second week of January, more wintry conditions will be settling in across the eastern two-thirds of the nation. Colder air will set the stage for a couple of rounds of snow for areas from the Ohio Valley to the mid-Atlantic, which could culminate in more substantial snow for some areas by late in the week, AccuWeather meteorologists say.
The first wave of snow will be more of a nuisance with generally light accumulations, but some major cities along the I-95 corridor may pick up measurable snow for the first time since early last March.
The culprit behind the first round of winter precipitation will be a fragment of what was once a powerful bomb cyclone over the Pacific Ocean that brought torrential rain, flooding and power outages to California from Wednesday to Thursday. A piece of the storm has sneaked eastward across the Plains to start the weekend, eventually reaching the Ohio Valley and East by Sunday and Monday.
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A narrow zone of snow and wintry mix will slide just along and north of the Interstate 70 corridor, reaching as far north as Interstate 80 through the beginning of this week. Any accumulation on the roads is likely to be light and may struggle to bring much more than just wet pavement to a small amount of slush.
As this weak storm moves along farther to the east, snow and a wintry mix will spread into the central Appalachians Sunday night, where similar conditions are likely with areas of slush and a light accumulation. Earlier in the day, some freezing drizzle is also possible in locations such as Roanoke, Virginia, and Boone, North Carolina, with some icy patches on roads.
There are a number of factors that will determine how much snow is able to accumulate as the system pushes east of the Appalachians late Sunday night to Monday, including the amount of moisture that will be available, air temperatures and the intensity of the storm since it may strengthen at the last minute. Should all the pieces fall into place, it is possible for areas within a heavily populated corridor, stretching from Washington, D.C. to Providence, Rhode Island, to receive a slushy coating to perhaps an inch of snow.
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In New York City, the last time 0.1 of an inch of snow or greater (measurable snow) fell was on March 9, when a mere 0.4 of an inch was recorded. For Philadelphia and Washington, D.C., measurable snow fell a few days later on March 12. Both cities picked up less than an inch of snow from that storm system.
"At the very least, the Monday morning commute will be messy for some locations, especially in some of the slightly colder, northern and western suburbs of the I-95 mid-Atlantic cities," AccuWeather Meteorologist Dean DeVore said.
Rain is likely to fall from much of central and southeastern Virginia to southern New Jersey, Long Island, New York and Cape Cod, Massachusetts, on Monday morning.
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Another opportunity may arise for a more impactful snow for some in the Northeast spanning late this week to next weekend, but that will be dependent on several factors.
"First, a storm around Jan. 11-12 now appears most likely to push straight eastward and out to sea," AccuWeather Lead Long-Range Meteorologist Paul Pastelok said. This particular storm is part of a couple of weaker systems that will bring moderate rain and mountain snow to California this weekend.
Following the weaker storm train, another more potent storm will trek eastward from the West Coast, forecasters say.
"A major storm that will swing onshore in California early in the week is the one to watch for trouble from snow and rain in the East by next weekend," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Joe Lundberg said.
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However, when storms try to strengthen along the Atlantic coast, they can begin to travel farther to the north.
The speed of the storm's strengthening will play a role in the northward extent of snow and will also make the difference in where rain versus snow falls from the Tennessee and Ohio valleys to the Appalachians, mid-Atlantic and New England.
Other weather systems will also influence the storm's track as it shifts eastward, and the track will determine where exactly wintry weather occurs, Pastelok explained.
"The most likely option is for mainly rain or a wintry mix from Washington, D.C., to New York City and Boston with snowover the interior, but that could change as the storm track shifts," Pastelok said, adding that the storm is still up to a week away.
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