AccuWeather forecasters monitoring 2 areas of interest in tropical Atlantic
The peak of hurricane season came and went over the weekend with little actual cyclonic activity over the Atlantic basin, which has been notably dormant this year after two years of nearly constant activity, particularly in the middle parts of the seasons.
On Sept. 10, the aforementioned statistical peak of the Atlantic season, the only hurricane to speak of was Earl, which, after reaching Category 2 force earlier in the week, was speeding over the North Atlantic and posed virtually no direct threat to land. Earl was just the fifth named storm of the 2002 Atlantic hurricane season and, at one point about 800 miles away from Cape Hatteras, was the closest any hurricane this season came to the United States mainland.
Nearly two-and-a-half months through the 2022 hurricane season, not a single hurricane has come within striking distance of the East Coast or Gulf Coast. For AccuWeather forecasters, that relative calm has been an ominous sign as they monitored the basin this week for new signs of activity.
Even in a slow season, all it takes is one haymaker of a hurricane to unleash disaster.
Two areas of concern were being monitored for potential tropical development in the central and eastern Atlantic.
The first of two waves was located just to the west of Cabo Verde Islands, an island chain located off the northwestern tip of Africa and thousands of miles to the east of any land in North America, and this wave is neither expected to develop nor impact land in the coming days. On the other hand, AccuWeather meteorologists were growing more concerned with a second tropical wave, which was moving across the central Atlantic.
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"A tropical wave currently tracking across the central Atlantic will move into a region that could support gradual tropical development through the rest of the week and into the weekend," said AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Adam Douty.
As of Tuesday evening, the National Weather Service National Hurricane Center puts the central Atlantic wave at a 30 percent chance of cyclone development over the next 48 hours.
This area of favorable conditions is situated just east of the Windward and Leeward Islands of the Caribbean and in the waters surrounding the northeastern Caribbean islands.
As it travels through the region, the tropical wave is likely to bring enhanced rainfall and heavy downpours to the Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico and even parts of Hispaniola. Should the wave strengthen into a tropical depression or storm, gusty winds could also be a concern for the islands. The next name on the 2022 Atlantic storm list is Fiona.
This tropical system will have a short window during which it could develop, as less favorable conditions lurk nearby.
"Much of the Gulf of Mexico and southwest Atlantic will have moderate or strong wind shear. This environment could limit the strengthening of any tropical wave or even make any developed tropical system less organized," Douty explained.
Even without an organized storm forecast to impact the eastern U.S. in the coming week, tropical moisture is still expected to play a role in weather conditions taking shape across parts of the country this week.
"A front will stall along the Gulf Coast, helping to produce thunderstorms across the Florida Peninsula. A flow of tropical moisture from the Caribbean and Gulf toward this front will further enhance thunderstorms with heavy rain," Douty said.
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Drenching thunderstorms for the second half of the week could quickly bring as much as 1-2 inches of rain in a short amount of time. While the soil across much of Florida is equipped to handle heavier-than-normal downpours, in more developed or paved locations, like cities, water could start ponding, especially in low-lying areas.
AccuWeather forecasters say that motorists should be particularly alert for heavy downpours that could bring reduced visibility and associated travel delays.
It is not out of the question that the tropical moisture lingering over the warm waters surrounding Florida and the Southeast could produce a quickly developing tropical depression based on climatology. However, AccuWeather meteorologists think this is an unlikely scenario at this time.
Based on the below-average number of storms so far this season, long-range forecasts and the advancing stage of the current season, AccuWeather forecasters revised their overall forecast for named storms to 12 on Tuesday. This means forecasters expect seven additional storms to form before the end of the season. In addition, they revised the number of expected hurricanes to 4-6, which means of those seven storms, as many as two to four could become hurricanes this year.
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The initial forecast released back in late March called for 16-20 named storms and six to eight hurricanes. As the season went on, and August went without a named storm for the first time in 25 years, AccuWeather's team of long-range forecasters then revised their prediction to 12-16 named storms and five to seven hurricanes at the start of September.
Tropical activity immediately picked up once the calendar hit September, as Danielle and eventually Earl formed over the open waters.
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Two tropical waves can be seen on satellite on Sept. 13, 2022. One is located closer to Africa, while the other is over the central Atlantic. |
Despite the revised forecast, AccuWeather meteorologists say that residents living in hurricane-prone regions of the U.S. should not let their guard down. There are still about two and a half months left until the season officially concludes on Nov. 30, and water temperatures in traditional tropical development areas remain sufficiently warm enough for tropical storms or hurricanes to develop.
AccuWeather Chief Meteorologist Jonathan Porter said Tuesday that the company's latest forecast update is the result of constant monitoring, refinement and data integration into its predictions.
"Dry, stable air and unfavorable atmospheric winds have been present over much of the tropical Atlantic thus far this season, capping development of tropical storms. Even [Tuesday], these unfavorable conditions generally persist and tropical waves coming off the coast of Africa as they normally do at this time of the year, are struggling to further develop due to these conditions," Porter said.
Porter noted that a strengthening La Niña pattern into the fall and plentiful warm water in the Atlantic Ocean continues to suggest the risk for a more active end of the season which may last longer than normal and possibly right up until the official end of hurricane season on Nov. 30.
"The lack of tropical storms and hurricanes in the Atlantic has been particularly noticeable considering recent hyperactive hurricane seasons with many impacts to the U.S. and Caribbean. Even though the season overall may end up near average or even slightly below average, it only takes one storm to threaten lives and create a major disaster."
The East Pacific has been the more active of the two U.S.-bordering tropical basins this hurricane season, and AccuWeather meteorologists warn that more tropical storms could be on the way this month.
The East Pacific hurricane season officially began on May 15, and its first tropical system came at the end of the month when Hurricane Agatha strengthened into a Category 2 storm on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, packing maximum sustained winds of 110 mph -- just 1 mph below major hurricane status, and made a record-setting landfall in Mexico. Agatha was the first of 12 named storms that have already blossomed across the basin, including Hurricane Kay which unloaded a year's worth of rain in parts of Southern California.
Less than a week after Kay's impacts were felt in the southwestern U.S., conditions remain favorable for tropical development farther to the south along the southwestern coast of Mexico, near where Kay initially strengthened. AccuWeather forecasters say that a tropical depression or storm could develop by the end of the week.
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Outer rain bands of any potential storm that develops are likely to reach southwestern Mexico, including the towns of Colima, which lies near the central Pacific coast in a valley, and Puerto Vallarta, a popular resort destination that sits to the north. Both of these areas are among those that received torrential rain from Kay. Portions of the southern Baja Peninsula, like Cabo San Lucas, could also be impacted as the storm shifts northward into early next week.
"As the potential storm tracks to the northwest, moisture can be pulled even farther to the north and into the southwestern United States next week," Douty said.
Douty explained that there are many factors still in play and that the exact weather pattern across the western U.S. will determine exactly where the heaviest rain could develop, adding that it's possible for some of the areas that were soaked by Kay's torrential rains just last week to be drenched again.
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