AccuWeather forecasters study new areas for development in Atlantic in the wake of Karl
Karl, once a tropical storm in the Bay of Campeche, met its demise prior to reaching the coast of Mexico early Saturday morning. Despite the storm's limited impacts during its life cycle, AccuWeather meteorologists caution that the Atlantic hurricane season is far from over, and there remain areas to watch for development in the coming weeks.
AccuWeather meteorologists are honing in on a few areas in the Atlantic for potential tropical trouble.
"We have a little break in the Atlantic as far as tropical activity is concerned, but it may not last too long," AccuWeather Chief On-Air Meteorologist Bernie Rayno said.
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"The second half of October through November is a time when we see tropical disturbances (tropical waves) that originate from Africa become less in number and less robust," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Joe Lundberg said. "However, there are still areas that bear watching during the final weeks of the hurricane season, such as homegrown systems."
These homegrown systems tend to form relatively close to North and Central America in parts of the Atlantic Ocean, such as the Caribbean Sea, the southern Gulf of Mexico and just off the Atlantic coast of the United States.
There are no candidates for tropical systems over the next week or so at least, but that can change over time as other conditions and non-tropical weather systems organize and move along, Lundberg said.
As large southward dips in the jet stream become more prominent in the eastern U.S. during October and November, a spin-off weather system typically tends to develop farther south.
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That system is known as a gyre or broad area of slowly-spinning air and low pressure. Because of lower pressure and weak spin, it can sometimes help induce a tropical system.
"One spot where we will be watching for development in the next few weeks will be around the Caribbean," Rayno said.
Formation in this area can get a little boost as remaining tropical waves from Africa move into the region from the east.
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No organized tropical systems were in the Atlantic basin, nor were there any immediate candidates for a tropical system as of Saturday, Oct. 15, 2022. (AccuWeather Enhanced RealVue™ satellite) |
Even though Karl formed as a result of leftover energy from Hurricane Julia, rather than a result of direct impact from a gyre, it is an example of how quickly a tropical storm can brew under the right conditions with low wind shear and a pocket of moisture.
One area to watch toward the last week of October may be in Atlantic waters from Florida and the Bahamas to the Carolinas. In this zone, a southward dip in the jet stream could spark anything from a non-tropical storm to a full-blown tropical system.
If additional tropical storms form this season, the next three names on the list that forecasters use to identify storms are Lisa, Martin and Nicole.
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