AccuWeather forecasters warn of flood risk for Gulf Coast Labor Day weekend
Heavy, drenching thunderstorms could play spoiler for millions across the south-central United States over Labor Day weekend as well as hinder ongoing recovery efforts in flood-ravaged parts of Mississippi.
The soaking storms are forecast to impact areas from Texas and much of the Gulf Coast through the holiday weekend, and although rain is needed in some parts of Texas, other areas of the Gulf Coast have had more than enough recently. Even where the rain will be welcome, AccuWeather meteorologists say that too much may fall too quickly and result in flooding.
As a cold front sags toward the Gulf Coast and stalls, showers and thunderstorms should gradually become more widespread during the weekend. Before that happens, some locations in northern Texas that recently dealt with devastating flooding may get more rain.
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Forecasters say it has been quite a turnaround in Dallas and much of northern Texas over the past month. A streak of 67 consecutive days without measurable rain came to an end in Dallas on Aug. 9, the second-longest dry streak on record for the city. The city was then inundated by more than 9 inches of rain that fell in a 24-hour period between Aug. 21 and Aug. 22. With 10.68 inches, August 2022 is now the wettest August on record in Dallas.
According to the United States Drought Monitor, much of Texas is still in some level of drought despite the recent heavy rain. About 26% of the state is experiencing extreme drought conditions, while another 5% is experiencing exceptional drought conditions. Exceptional drought is rated as the most intense form of drought, while extreme drought is the second most intense classification.
"Parts of the Dallas metro area received nearly five times the normal amount of rainfall in August, so even isolated thunderstorms will not be welcome," said AccuWeather Meteorologist La Troy Thornton.
Even where flooding did not occur, recent rain has been enough that it is no longer the driest year on record in many Texas cities. That said, rain is still needed in cities farther south in the Lone Star State.
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"Despite the flooding risk, the upcoming rain will be beneficial in central Texas where many reservoirs are located," noted AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Alex Sosnowski.
Farther to the east, drought is not a concern along much of the Gulf Coast, but it is in this zone where thunderstorms may be most widespread by this weekend. Multiple showers and thunderstorms moving over the same locations will raise the flooding risk over the holiday weekend.
"The Gulf Coast has been a major focal point for flooding rainfall lately due to a typical summer pattern of stalled fronts hanging around the region," explained Thornton.
Mississippi has been one of the hardest-hit states by the recent flooding rainfall, and the flooding in the state has had disastrous effects. Earlier this week, Mississippi Gov. Tate Reeves declared a state of emergency due to a water crisis in the capital of Jackson.
A pump failure at the city's main water plant left more than 150,000 people without access to reliable running water. The pump failure was linked to ongoing flooding at the nearby Pearl River, according to city officials.
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The weather will remain mostly dry around Jackson into Friday before rain chances increase, according to AccuWeather Meteorologist Mary Gilbert.
"Friday should be largely dry, but it is not out of the question that a shower or thunderstorm arrives closer to the evening hours. The holiday weekend [in Jackson] can be rather stormy with scattered thunderstorms possible each day," she said.
As the front stalls along the coast, an area of low pressure is also expected to develop on the front by Friday or Saturday. This will enhance the intensity of the rainfall, forecasters say.
In addition to Jackson, the heaviest and most concentrated thunderstorms are expected in cities such as Brownsville and Houston, Texas and Lake Charles and New Orleans, Louisiana.
AccuWeather meteorologists say that this front is likely to remain parked near the Gulf Coast right into early next week, which would allow many locations to wind up with several inches of rain.
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