'Get their act together': How the division over House speaker could affect GOP in 2024

WASHINGTON − The historic ousting of former Speaker Kevin McCarthy this month has left Americans divided over the unprecedented move − and the Republican Party may pay the price in the 2024 election.

House Republicans have struggled to coalesce around one leader since McCarthy's historic 15 rounds of voting to become speaker in January. He made history again two weeks ago as the first speaker ousted from the House. Since then, the House Republican conference hasn't been able to unite around a single candidate and elect a new speaker, with deep divisions roiling between hard-line conservatives and centrists in the party.

With House lawmakers up for reelection in 2024, McCarthy's removal might factor into their odds of winning again, experts said.

“At the basic level, either one side needs to win this in-party fighting, a compromise must be reached, or the voters will attempt to fix it next year,” Kevin Wagner, a political science professor at Florida Atlantic University, told USA TODAY.

Problems in the House can influence voters at home. Several polls already show that voters are about evenly split over McCarthy's removal as speaker.

A Yahoo News/YouGov poll released Monday found 31% of registered voters approve of McCarthy being ousted, while 27% disapprove of the House's decision.

Likewise, a CNN/SSRS poll Oct. 4 to Oct. 9 found 50% approve the decision and 49% disapprove. Thirty-four percent of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents say his removal was bad for the GOP, while 30% think it was good.

And a poll released from The Associated Press-NORC on Oct. 11 found that 25% of voters strongly or somewhat approve of McCarthy's removal, while 25% strongly or somewhat disapprove.

The polls were conducted before two failed votes for a new House speaker, including a second in which Republican nominee Rep. Jim Jordan, of Ohio, earned less support than in the first election.

Ted Davis, 58, a retiree in Portland, Oregon, is one of the voters who disapproves of the House booting its speaker and failing to elect a replacement. He compared the situation to a “giant freaking circus.”

“They can't even figure out what they want to do as near as I can tell,” said Davis, an independent. "I'm like you're not leading, you're just running around like kids on a playground. So I've lost a lot of respect for the Republican Party these last couple of years.”

Republican presidential candidates have also spoken out against the move. In a USA TODAY town hall last week in New Hampshire, former Vice President Mike Pence said, “I have some tough words for what I call the 'chaos caucus' in my party on Capitol Hill.”

“It never would have occurred to me to partner with every Democrat on Capitol Hill to oust a Republican speaker of the House,” he said, adding that if lawmakers fail to elect a speaker, voters will hold them "accountable, individually and collectively."

What happened to Kevin McCarthy?

Former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif., had a rocky start to his reign as speaker. He went through 15 rounds of voting to get elected and had to make concessions with hard-line conservatives who opposed him.

But once elected, his detractors' frustrations only grew, particularly during debt ceiling negotiations between McCarthy and President Joe Biden

The boiling point of his speakership hit late last month when McCarthy worked with Democrats to pass a stopgap measure, also known as a continuing resolution, to avoid a government shutdown.

Rep. Matt Gaetz, R-Fla., who criticized McCarthy for the measure, introduced a motion to vacate and remove McCarthy as speaker.

Eight Republicans and 208 Democrats voted to oust him. The eight were Rep. Andy Biggs of Arizona, Rep. Ken Buck of Colorado, Rep. Tim Burchett of Tennessee, Rep. Eli Crane of Arizona, Gaetz of Florida, Rep. Bob Good of Virginia, Rep. Nancy Mace of South Carolina and Rep. Matt Rosendale of Montana.

'Get their act together': Voters express frustration, anxiety over House speaker chaos

At this point, Davis said, he just wants lawmakers to elect somebody in the speaker position and get the job of representing their constituents done.

“They need to get their act together. I mean, at this point, they've got the raw voting power. Why not just pick anybody at this point? They don't have to be popular. Just need to put somebody up there who can say, 'Hey, this is what we're voting on next.' And just get through it all. I don't care if they choose Jeffries from the Democrats or anybody else for that matter.”

For Kate Richards, 59, a semi-retired entrepreneur in Manchester, New Hampshire, Congress entering its third week without a speaker makes her feel angry.

“It’s dangerous for the country,” said Richards, an independent. “That is a very important job. He's third in line. Nothing's getting done. And again, this is foolishness, and it's making the country at risk whether they understand that or not. It’s a very vulnerable time for us.”

Leo Braham, 18, who attends Phillips Exeter Academy in New Hampshire, said it's disheartening to see the chaos unfolding in the House. He doesn’t care who the speaker is and said he just wants to see the GOP unified.

“I think what we're seeing in the House is a much deeper and more worrisome reflection of the fractures in the party. And I think as a Republican voter, I want to see much less of that because I care about particular issues actually being acted upon,” he said. “I think it's a lot harder to show unity. … I think it's not positive that there's that kind of open rebellion within the caucus.”

Alana Sweeny, 74, a retiree in Mahopac, New York, said she felt McCarthy’s removal was a reaction by a very small group that wanted to control the House and put a more conservative mark on House matters.

“I think it's extremely unfortunate. We have a lot of important things that need to be taken care of by Congress and right now, we're paralyzed. … It makes me frustrated,” said Sweeny, a Republican. “We have people there who are to do the business of the populace. And at the moment, they're not able to do it until they get a speaker. … It's a shame that it's such a small group that's doing that and it's a shame that none of the Democrats will just vote present and get it over with.”

Sweeny said she liked how the former speaker was able to work on both sides, understand issues and work with a broad spectrum of people.

Rafael Struve, 31, a communications director for the Texas Young Republican Federation based in Houston, called the decision to remove McCarthy “premature.”

“Especially as we head into the 2024 cycle − if we want to show that we're a party that is going to deliver a better or better policy platform than the Democratic Party, we need to show that we can actually get Step 1 taken care of, which is uniting behind whoever is elected ... to drive forward what we believe is the agenda that best serve the interests of our country and for us as voters," he said.

'He did not keep his word': Other voters say lawmakers made the right move

Robert Charlebois, 56, a truck driver in Danbury, New Hampshire, said McCarthy’s removal was justified.

“He was given the speakership with the understanding that there were certain goals he was going to pursue, and he didn't do that, and part of the reason he was given the speakership was because he wasn't going to bend to the Democrats to achieve other goals, and yet he did. So what it boils down to the way I'm looking at it, I tried to look at it from all possible angles, is he did not keep his word,” said Charlebois, a Republican.

“And so therefore, if you've got someone who promises you the moon and delivers you a marble, then are you going to keep them employed?”

Jared Johnson, 43, a mining industry worker and Republican voter in Tooele, Utah, also said McCarthy didn’t keep his word as speaker.

“I think we've got to get more Republicans on board to … be more conservative,” he said, applauding Jordan for leading the impeachment inquiry into President Joe Biden.

Kevin Fry, 63, a retired air traffic controller in Fort Wayne, Indiana, criticized McCarthy for not getting the appropriation bills finished or scheduling votes on term limits for lawmakers.

“Some things are out of his (McCarthy's) control. But ... one person should not have as much power as they physically do and then not use it," said Fry, a Republican.

House representatives on a tipping point with the 2024 election

Republicans already struggle to hold on to the majority after winning back control of the House from the Democrats in the 2020 midterms with a narrow margin.

The infighting between Republican lawmakers over the shutdown fight and now the speaker battle have only added pressure to the GOP. In the Yahoo News/YouGov poll, 42% of voters blame conservative and moderate Republicans for the gridlock in Congress, while 32% of voters blame progressive and moderate Democrats.

McCarthy’s removal is a reflection of the political problems the Republican Party faces as it “navigates between trying to be a center-right party who can appeal to moderate voters and a party dominated by the hard-right side of the party,” said Charles Stewart III, a professor of political science at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

The speaker of the House can become a campaign issue, he added. For instance, former Democratic House Speaker Tip O’Neill “was a major punching bag of Republicans back in the 1980 election, for instance, and that tactic was considered successful.”

“I can see Democrats having a field day going after House Republicans and perhaps a new speaker, especially if he or she is seen as being extreme,” Stewart said. “This is not good for Republicans, although they still have time to stanch the wounds.”

But Wagner said each district Republicans are competing in is different, so the speaker race might not have a huge effect.

“In some districts, there will be a well-funded incumbent, others may be open, making them very different even if they are both purple,” Wagner said. “ If the GOP lags in fundraising, messaging or candidate recruitment, it could help Democratic candidates, but it really depends largely on the district.”

On a national level, Wagner said, an effective presidential campaign at the top of the ticket may well hide some of the problems among House Republicans in Congress.

“However, if the perception of disarray from the House were to paint the entire party, even the presidential candidate may suffer some vote loss from voters who are frustrated with the entire party.”

'Get it together': 2024 candidates discuss McCarthy's removal

Some 2024 Republican candidates on the campaign trail have called out the divisions between GOP lawmakers in Congress.

Pence said in an interview with USA TODAY that he was concerned about how the chaos on Capitol Hill was affecting America and called on Republican leadership to elect a new speaker.

“We have war now raging in Eastern Europe, war in Israel,” Pence said. “Now more than ever, we need Republicans to come together and elect leadership that can begin to not only provide our allies with the support they need, but secure our border, get our economy moving again."

Former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson said in an interview with USA TODAY that if lawmakers elect a speaker soon and “show unity in that selection process,” then it's a bump in the road that will not have any influence on next year's election.

“If we struggle with getting the ballots to select a speaker, then it demonstrates that we're not ready to govern,” Hutchinson said. “So that would be worrisome."

As she filed for candidacy to participate in the New Hampshire Republican primary, former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley suggested lawmakers shouldn't get paid until they elect a speaker.

“What I will remind my fellow Republicans is, you don't fix Democrat chaos with Republican chaos. Get it together."

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: 'Get their act together': Voters frustrated by House without a speaker