Which actors will win an Oscar in 2023?

The race to the 2023 Oscars is well underway. Could this season culminate with a major acting comeback, a historic Best Actress win, and more? Let's take a look at the field as it currently stands: 

The latest

We may be living in the universe where an Everything Everywhere All at Once star sweeps awards season … just not the person we originally thought.

With less than two months until the Oscar nominations are announced, all four acting categories remain competitive. But in recent weeks, one particular contender has been surging: Everything Everywhere All at Once's Ke Huy Quan, who has become our predicted winner of the Best Supporting Actor race, for reasons we'll get into below. On the other hand, it seems increasingly like the Everything Everywhere star whom voters latch onto for Best Supporting Actress may not be Stephanie Hsu, as we first thought, but rather Jamie Lee Curtis. So we've swapped in the latter for the former in that category.

Best Actress remains a nail-biter. But although we originally had Michelle Yeoh predicted to win, we've reluctantly switched to Cate Blanchett for now, largely because the Academy has often liked to spread the love around in recent years, and it may be tough for both Yeoh and Quan to win.

Meanwhile, we've removed Brad Pitt from Best Supporting Actor for Babylon, partially because reactions to that film were more mixed than we expected, and partially because another contender, Judd Hirsch, has gained momentum.

Finally, we've dropped Glass Onion's Janelle Monáe in Best Supporting Actress to make room for Hong Chau from The Whale, but make no mistake: A surprise Monáe nomination is definitely still in play.

Best Actor

• Austin Butler (Elvis)

• Colin Farrell (The Banshees of Inisherin)

• Brendan Fraser (The Whale)

• Hugh Jackman (The Son)

• Bill Nighy (Living)

Predicted winner: Austin Butler (Elvis)

The Best Actor race looks like a fierce showdown between Austin Butler and Brendan Fraser.

If there's a single frontrunner, it's arguably Fraser for The Whale, the Darren Aronofsky movie in which he plays a 600-pound man. He has drawn universal acclaim, even among people who otherwise didn't care for the film, and the Academy loves the kind of transformation that Fraser is doing here.

Plus, Fraser's campaign comes with a compelling comeback narrative, as the actor has been largely out of the spotlight in the past decade. In 2018, he told GQ he felt "reclusive" after he was allegedly sexually assaulted by a former president of the group behind the Golden Globes. He recently made headlines — and earned widespread praise — after announcing he'll refuse to attend the Golden Globes even if he's nominated. And virtually every time the film has screened, a clip has gone viral showing Fraser tearing up as he receives a standing ovation. Who wouldn't want to root for the guy?

Fraser also received a boost when he was honored with a tribute award at the Toronto International Film Festival, which in recent years has gone to performers who went on to win an Oscar like Jessica Chastain, Anthony Hopkins, and Joaquin Phoenix.

Yet early reviews for The Whale have made it sound like a brutally emotional movie that could prove divisive in the Academy. Slant described it as "cinematic misery porn," and there has been debate about whether the film, which features Fraser wearing a "fat suit," is fatphobic. At Polygon, Katie Rife criticized The Whale for failing to show "empathy and curiosity about people" of its protagonist's size, writing that it "proceeds from the assumption that a 600-pound man is inherently unlovable" and could be "actively harmful to some audiences." Though the Independent Spirit Awards don't always have a ton of overlap with the Oscars, it was also a bit of a red flag when Fraser was unexpectedly snubbed there.

So we're betting Best Actor will go to the lead of a film that seems like more of a crowd-pleaser: Austin Butler for Elvis. For one, the Academy has historically gravitated toward actors playing real people, from Will Smith as Richard Williams and Jessica Chastain as Tammy Faye to Rami Malek as Freddie Mercury, Renée Zellweger as Judy Garland, Gary Oldman as Winston Churchill, and many more. No one who's seen Elvis can deny that Butler accurately channels Presley to a spooky degree, so much so that when the movie switches to real Elvis footage, it's not immediately clear we aren't still watching Butler.

The big drawback with Butler is that it has been difficult for younger actors like him to win Oscars in the past. He's only 31, which would make him one of the youngest Best Actor winners ever. But we still think the race could end up being a repeat of the 2009 Oscars, when the lead of a bleak Darren Aronofsky movie, Mickey Rourke in The Wrestler, lost to an actor playing a real person, Sean Penn in Milk. Plus, the fact that Butler is hosting Saturday Night Live just a few weeks before Oscar voting begins can't hurt, right? We can already hear the cries of Film Twitter screaming, "Brendan was robbed!"

The third-in-line contender appears to be Colin Farrell for The Banshees of Inisherin, which features what Next Best Picture's Matt Neglia called the "most deeply layered work" of his career. The movie, which comes from the director of Best Picture nominee Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri, also received some of the best reviews out of this year's Venice Film Festival, and Farrell won the Volpi Cup for Best Actor, an award some pundits thought Fraser would take. It's perhaps less of a "showy" performance than either Fraser or Butler — there's nothing in Banshees as big as the show-stopping finale of Elvis — but if the Academy also considers the fact that Farrell has somehow never even been nominated for an Oscar, he could be a real threat.

Another possibility is Hugh Jackman for The Son, the follow-up to The Father from director Florian Zeller. Reviews have heaped praise on Jackman, but The Son has otherwise received mixed reviews, and it currently holds a Rotten Tomatoes score of just 40 percent. So at this point, we only have Jackman in the running because the Best Actor field is quite light. The last spot is somewhat open, but for now, we're going with Bill Nighy for Living. At age 72, it would be Nighy's first Oscar nomination ever, and Time Out described it as a "career-best performance."

As crazy as it might sound, though, the Best Actor field seems thin enough that there's a small chance Tom Cruise could get in for Top Gun: Maverick, which appears guaranteed to be a Best Picture nomination. It's a long shot, but we've learned not to underestimate Cruise or that film.

Best Actress

• Cate Blanchett (Tár)

• Danielle Deadwyler (Till)

• Margot Robbie (Babylon)

• Michelle Williams (The Fabelmans)

• Michelle Yeoh (Everything Everywhere All At Once)

Predicted winner: Cate Blanchett (Tár)

Best Actress, meanwhile, looks like a three-way race that's likely to come down to Cate Blanchett and the two Michelles: Yeoh and Williams.

Yeoh has received rapturous reviews for Everything Everywhere All At Once, and her campaign already received a boost when she was honored with a TIFF tribute award, the same key Oscar precursor Fraser received. Since 2019, there has never been a year when at least one of the TIFF tribute winners didn't also win an acting Oscar. She's an actress who has decades of great work under her belt but has never been nominated for an Oscar, so the idea that she should finally be recognized is one everyone can get behind. Plus, would you believe Yeoh would become the first Asian woman to ever win Best Actress?

In fact, we initially had Yeoh predicted to win, but one problem has emerged: It's now looking like her co-star Ke Huy Quan is gaining more momentum than her for a win in Best Supporting Actor category, and is Everything Everywhere really such a strong contender that it could win two acting awards? For this to happen, you'd have to assume the Academy as a whole loves Everything Everywhere, and that's not a sure thing at this point. The movie has legions of passionate fans, but it's also so chaotic and wacky that there's a risk some voters won't know what to make of it. It also seemed like a slight red flag when Yeoh failed to win Outstanding Lead Performance at the Gotham Awards — Danielle Deadwyler instead won for Till — despite Everything Everywhere itself winning Best Feature, though we probably shouldn't read into that too much since those winners are selected by a small jury.

That brings us to the movie that looks set to win Best Picture: Steven Spielberg's The Fabelmans. Michelle Williams, who essentially plays Spielberg's mom in the semi-autobiographical film, was once considered the clear frontrunner to win Best Supporting Actress … until it was revealed that she'll be campaigned as a lead. That was a somewhat controversial decision, but it's unlikely to cost Williams a nomination based on the strength of the movie, and it's not impossible to imagine her winning. Critics have mostly been impressed by her work, with The Wrap saying she delivers one of her "most powerful and moving performances" ever — though it's certainly heightened, given she's playing a woman whom Spielberg has described as a free-spirited "Peter Pan."

Most importantly, Williams has been nominated four times going back to Brokeback Mountain but has never won. So of all of the major contenders, she may have the strongest narrative that she's overdue for a win, and that combined with starring in the likely Best Picture winner makes for a powerful combination. It probably didn't hurt when Williams delivered a well-received speech at the Gotham Awards as she was honored with a performer tribute, during which she reflected on a career of great performances.

But then there's Cate Blanchett, who most pundits consider the early frontrunner. She has a whopping seven Oscar nominations and two wins under her belt, and she plays a classical music conductor in Tár, which was perhaps the single most buzzed-about movie at this year's Venice International Film Festival. The Hollywood Reporter described her performance as "astonishing," and some critics have declared it the best of her entire career. Blanchett won an Oscar most recently for Blue Jasmine in 2014, but she hasn't been nominated since Carol in 2016. That's probably just a long enough cooling-off period for voters to be okay with rewarding her again, and besides, the Academy clearly has no problem crowning a three-time winner. After all, Frances McDormand just won her third Oscar in 2021.

The problem with Blanchett's candidacy is that Tár itself is arguably emotionally cold and could be seen as cryptic at times, making it the kind of film that it's easy to imagine certain Oscar voters not quite "getting." But the entire movie is built around Blanchett's undeniably great performance, so voters could embrace her even if they don't rally behind the film in other categories. We've seen numerous recent examples of films that only win Best Actress, including Room, The Favourite, and Judy.

But while it might seem like a three-way race at this point, there's another candidate who isn't far behind: Danielle Deadwyler, who plays the mother of Emmett Till in Till. It sounds like the kind of powerhouse performance that makes the entire movie, and Deadwyler has been getting across-the-board raves, with Clayton Davis of Variety saying she delivers "one of the year's single best performances, by any person, bar none." The only question is whether the movie will be as widely seen as it needs to be.

But Deadwyler earned a boost when she scored a surprise Outstanding Lead Performance win at the Gotham Awards. Keep in mind, the Gothams' acting awards aren't gendered, so she beat not only Cate Blanchett and Michelle Yeoh, but also Brendan Fraser and Colin Farrell. The Gotham Awards specifically honor independent films and select winners using a small jury, so they're not always the greatest predictor of the Oscars. But if nothing else, Deadwyler's win could lead more Oscar voters to check out a film and performer they otherwise might have overlooked. On the flip side, it was somewhat concerning that Deadwyler wasn't even nominated at the Independent Spirit Awards.

This leaves one slot open, which could go a number of ways. But we're betting the Academy will want to once again recognize Margot Robbie, who stars in Damien Chazelle's Babylon. She's been nominated twice before for I, Tonya and Bombshell, although her candidacy this year isn't quite as strong considering Babylon has been divisive.

Other contenders worth keeping an eye on are Naomi Ackie, who plays Whitney Houston in I Wanna Dance with Somebody and could get in for the same reason as Austin Butler, assuming the film gets good reviews. Viola Davis, another Academy favorite, also has a chance of making it in for The Woman King, and we're not completely ruling out a nod for Olivia Colman for Empire of Light, though that will be an uphill battle considering the film has been receiving mixed reviews.

Best Supporting Actor

• Paul Dano (The Fabelmans)

• Brendan Gleeson (The Banshees of Inisherin)

• Judd Hirsch (The Fabelmans)

• Ke Huy Quan (Everything Everywhere All At Once)

• Ben Whishaw (Women Talking)

Predicted winner: Ke Huy Quan (Everything Everywhere All At Once)

If any of the acting races have a clear early frontrunner, it's Best Supporting Actor, and that frontrunner is Ke Huy Quan.

The actor plays the husband of Michelle Yeoh's character in Everything Everywhere All at Once, and much like Brendan Fraser, his win would come with a compelling narrative. Quan was a child actor known for his roles in films like The Goonies and Indiana Jones and the Temple of Doom. But he quit acting for 20 years after struggling to find roles, only to return in a big way with Everything Everywhere. He's arguably the heart of the film and gets to deliver an emotional monologue near the end about the importance of kindness.

Quan recently cemented his status as a frontrunner at the Gotham Awards, the first major ceremony of the season, where he won Outstanding Supporting Performance. This was the same award won last year by CODA star Troy Kotsur, who went on to win the Oscar. But it wasn't the win that mattered so much as Quan's charming, emotional speech, which Oscar voters were surely watching. "This time last year, all I was hoping for was just a job," he said.

This came after Quan went viral earlier in the season by melting hearts with a photo of his reunion with former Temple of Doom co-star Harrison Ford. All in all, it may be hard for the Academy, and especially actors who can relate to his struggle looking for work, to resist such a powerful comeback story. It certainly helps that many voters will also feel nostalgia remembering his roles as a child actor.

But given The Fabelmans is the dominant Best Picture frontrunner, it's looking strong enough to actually secure two supporting actor nominations. The first would be Paul Dano, who plays the analog to Steven Spielberg's father. It's a somewhat restrained performance, but given Dano has never even been nominated for an Oscar, this seems like the perfect time to recognize him.

There is, though, another Fabelmans star pundits think might have a better shot: Judd Hirsch, despite the fact that he's only in the movie for about 10 minutes. Hirsch plays the main character's great uncle and completely takes over the film when he shows up, delivering a barnburner of a monologue about the life of an artist. It might seem like a long shot that someone could be nominated, or even win, an Oscar for such a small role. But it helps that that someone is Hirsch, an industry legend who the Academy may be eager to reward. Vanity Fair even released a clip of Hirsch's scene, declaring he "may win an Oscar" for it.

Meanwhile, Brendan Gleeson has been earning high marks for his role opposite Colin Farrell in The Banshees of Inisherin, with Deadline saying he "entirely dominates when he's on screen." With Farrell likely to be nominated for Best Actor, Gleeson should get in alongside him. A possible win, though, may be held back by the fact that the movie could be a bit strange for the Academy, and Gleeson's character — a man who threatens to cut off his fingers if Farrell's character won't stop bothering him, despite being an aspiring musician — doesn't really have one single "big" scene to latch onto like Hirsch. Finally, reviews for Women Talking suggest it will be a significant Best Picture contender, and Ben Whishaw is reportedly the standout of the male performers. His character, an ally of the female protagonists, is "exceptionally moving," according to The Hollywood Reporter.

One other contender worth watching is Brad Pitt for Babylon. We originally had him on the list but took him out based on the early reactions to the film being more mixed than anticipated. It's also possible voters could be reluctant to nominate him after recent headlines about Angelina Jolie's abuse allegations.

Best Supporting Actress

• Jessie Buckley (Women Talking)

• Hong Chau (The Whale)

• Jamie Lee Curtis (Everything Everywhere All At Once)

• Claire Foy (Women Talking)

• Carey Mulligan (She Said)

Predicted winner: Claire Foy (Women Talking)

Best Supporting Actress is, by far, this year's most unpredictable acting race.

Given Everything Everywhere All at Once looks set to be a strong Best Picture player, it should have at least one nominee here, and initially, we thought it would be Stephanie Hsu. The film, after all, is fundamentally a mother-daughter story that requires equally strong performances from Hsu and Michelle Yeoh.

But in recent weeks, there's been growing buzz about another Everything Everywhere star being nominated: Jamie Lee Curtis. The Halloween actress has openly admitted she wants the nomination, so we know she'll be campaigning her tail off. Similar to Judd Hirsch, she's an industry icon whom the Academy may want to recognize for her decades of fine work beyond just this film, especially since she's never been nominated. It might not hurt that Curtis just completed a massive press tour saying goodbye to Halloween's Laurie Strode, her most iconic role.

Yes, Hsu has the larger part, so Everything Everywhere fans may take umbrage at the idea of her being snubbed while Curtis is nominated. But Hsu is also younger and far less well-known in Hollywood. Curtis recently received a boost when she was nominated for Best Supporting Performance at the Independent Spirit Awards. (Hsu was also nominated, but in a different category, Best Breakthrough Performance). And for what it's worth, in his Gotham Awards speech, Ke Huy Quan gave a shout-out to Curtis "for helping me find my confidence" while failing to mention Hsu.

It's possible both Curtis and Hsu are nominated. But that might be challenging considering we think another film is poised for double nominations: Women Talking. The movie, which sees a group of women in a Mennonite colony debate what to do about a series of sexual assaults, is packed with some of our greatest working actresses, but it sounds like the stand-outs are Jessie Buckley and Claire Foy. Given Women Talking doesn't appear like a frontrunner for many other Oscar wins (except, perhaps, for Best Adapted Screenplay), Academy voters could see this as the best category to show it some love.  Between Buckley and Foy, it's a bit of a toss-up who could win. But we're going with Foy, as IndieWire notes she has "the most animated role, and therefore also the most show-stopping moments."

Meanwhile, Brendan Fraser is a Best Actor frontrunner for The Whale, so one of his co-stars could get a nomination alongside him. If that happens, it would probably be Hong Chau who makes it in for her role as the nurse and best friend of Fraser's character. The Hollywood Reporter identified her as the "standout, alongside Fraser," noting she delivers a "nuanced turn" that "breaks your heart."

Finally, Carey Mulligan should be in the mix for She Said, the Spotlight-esque drama about the reporters who uncovered Harvey Weinstein's sexual abuse. She's been nominated twice for An Education and Promising Young Woman and seemed to come close to winning Best Actress for the latter. So a narrative could be emerging that she's overdue for a win, similar to Michelle Williams. It's not clear if this role is meaty enough to take her over the finish line, but some emotional early moments that show her character dealing with postpartum depression should help her secure the nomination.

While we're no longer officially predicting her, it's also possible Janelle Monáe could pull off a big surprise by sneaking in for Glass Onion, Rian Johnson's Knives Out follow-up. Sure, Knives Out didn't get any acting nominations, but it also didn't have Netflix's mighty Oscar campaign machine behind it. Another contender who shouldn't be counted out is Kerry Condon for The Banshees of Inisherin, who could get in if that film overperforms, especially if voters aren't enthusiastic enough about Women Talking for double nominations.

Pundits are also still scratching their heads over Universal's decision to campaign Michelle Williams as a lead actress for The Fabelmans, though early predictions were that she would be nominated as a supporting actress and actually win. It's always possible the studio could change its mind or that Oscar voters could go rogue and nominate her as a supporting actress anyway. If that happens, Williams would have no problem cruising to a victory.

But otherwise, there's no clear consensus on the Supporting Actress frontrunner, so it truly is anyone's game.

For more of The Week's Oscar coverage, check out our 2023 Best Picture predictions.

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