There Are Actually a Few Interesting Things to Watch for in the Second Republican Debate

When former President Donald Trump skipped the first GOP presidential primary debate on Aug. 23, commentators and challengers warned that he was taking a big risk that might backfire.

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis warned that GOP primary voters wouldn’t “look kindly on somebody that thinks they don’t have to earn it.” Chris Christie called Trump a “coward.” Less than an hour before the debate began, Fox News analyst Brit Hume said on the pregame show that “it can be consequential skipping debates,” earning himself an all-caps social media rebuke from Trump in real time.

To the extent it was a risk, the risk paid off. On the day of that debate, Trump’s lead in FiveThirtyEight’s national polling average was 37 points ahead of DeSantis. On Monday, it was nearly 42 points above DeSantis. Though state polling is slight, there’s no indication the skip—and turning over the limelight to his lesser-known competitors for a night—lost him any ground in Iowa, New Hampshire, or South Carolina.

The structure of the race is static, with Trump well outpacing his pack of rivals, who haven’t meaningfully distanced themselves from one another. And so, Trump will also be skipping the second presidential debate, which will be held Wednesday night at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library in California. (It airs at 9 p.m. ET on the Fox Business Network.)

While the quasi-incumbent tootles off to Detroit to host a counterprogramming rally amid the UAW strike, what should we expect to see from his distant rivals trying to propel themselves into contention?

The first thing we’ll see is one fewer debater. The Republican National Committee ramped up its qualifying criteria for the second bout, requiring improved polling and additional unique donors. So far, the candidates who’ll participate include DeSantis, Christie, Nikki Haley, Vivek Ramaswamy, Mike Pence, Tim Scott, and Doug “Achilles” Burgum, who qualified at the very last second. Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson, your friendly neighborhood anti-Trumper, will not make it.

And though we noted that the race had been structurally static since the previous debate—it’s Trump by a mile, and then everyone else—there’s been some notable movement within the second tier.

DeSantis’ position as the clear alternative to Trump has continued to ebb, especially in early state polling. It’s Haley, meanwhile, who benefited most from the first debate. While she’s only improved a couple of points in the national polling average since August, she’s consistently posted double-digit numbers in recent early-state polls. She’s comfortably in second place to Trump in the three polls of her home state, South Carolina, since the first debate. In Iowa, she’s moved from low single digits to consistent third-place showings. The most recent New Hampshire poll showed her in second. And an early September CNN poll, meanwhile, showed her as the strongest opponent to President Joe Biden in a general election.

Given these improved fortunes, and with donors beginning to turn her direction as a potential One True Alternative to Trump, she’ll likely be more of a target in the debate.

How does one successfully take it to Nikki Haley? Well, there’s a long history of finger-in-the-wind flip-flopping in her support for Trump in the past, suggesting—gasp!—that she might be an opportunist. But if you look at where the primary discussion has been as of late, the cudgel could be abortion.

In a Meet the Press interview last week, Trump, who recognizes that stringent abortion bans aren’t the best general-election politics for Republicans right now, described DeSantis’ signing of a six-week abortion ban in Florida as “a terrible thing and a terrible mistake.” His opponents let loose. DeSantis said that Trump had “claimed to be pro-life,” but was now attacking the post-Dobbs abortion policy of not just Florida, but South Carolina and Iowa as well. Pence accused him of “backing away from the cause.” Tim Scott, similarly, said that Trump was “wrong” and accused him of running “away from protecting life.”

But Scott didn’t just blast Trump. He also disapprovingly mentioned DeSantis, who’s defended Florida’s ban but been hesitant to endorse a federal abortion ban, and Haley, who argued vociferously in the first debate that there aren’t the votes to pass a federal abortion ban and that Republicans shouldn’t give voters false hope. Scott—who, after a relatively flat first debate, could use a jump in the second—released an ad Monday about how some Republicans “want to retreat on life.” Expect him to go big on that in Wednesday’s debate, either directly or indirectly at Haley. Pence, too, who already got into this with Haley in the first debate, will likely pursue it as well.

What can we expect of the other candidates?

Ramaswamy, who became the unlikely focal point of the August debate, will continue bouncing off the walls. Though he annoys the other candidates, he’s useful to them: Going after him gets candidates speaking time, and some practice against junior-varsity MAGA.

He needed a great debate last time to solidify his place as the top alternative to Trump. He had a so-so one. Now that he finds himself just another member of the second-tier pack, does he still try to remain above the fray, or does he tousle with Haley and Scott, his rivals for would-be donor cash? Christie will get mad at someone; he’ll probably want to focus on DeSantis but will end up fighting with Ramaswamy again. Doug Burgum could quite possibly be having a “tennis accident” as you read this and appear with an amputated arm.

Amid all this discussion about who’ll go after whom and on what subject, or who’s pilfering someone else’s potential donor pool, the Trump-less debates still pose the question: To what end? Someone might jump from 8 to 14 percent, another down from 9 to 6. OK. But could any of the wannabe chief Trump alternatives get a little exit velocity around here? It’s hard when Trump is denying them his presence, his audience, and the opportunity to challenge him to his face.