Adam Schiff, Katie Porter poised for top-two finish in California Senate primary, new poll says

It’s looking more likely that the top two finishers in the March 5 California Senate primary will once again be Democrats, a new Public Policy Institute of California poll released Wednesday evening found.

Rep. Adam Schiff, D-Burbank, leads with 21%, followed by Rep. Katie Porter, D-Irvine, at 18% and Rep. Barbara Lee, D-Oakland at 9%. Republican attorney Eric Early is fourth at 6%.

The top two vote getters will compete in the November general election. They’re vying for the seat occupied for 31 years by the late Sen. Dianne Feinstein, D-California, who died in September.

Sen. Laphonza Butler, a Democrat appointed by Gov. Gavin Newsom last month, now has the job. She is not seeking a full term.

No Republicans come close to the frontrunners, the poll found. Former baseball star Steve Garvey, who is running as a Republican, entered the race while the poll was underway.

PPIC Statewide Survey Director Mark Baldassare said it’s likely that once again, as in California Senate contests dating back to 2016, the top two November contenders will be Democrats.

“Schiff and Porter are the top two choices among Democrats and independents, liberals and moderates, men and women, Latinos and whites, and in every major region except for the San Francisco Bay Area,” the survey found.

Lee, a veteran Bay Area congresswoman, had 17% among Bay Area voters. Porter had 18% and Schiff, 27%.

Trump and Republicans

Among Republicans, who will be choosing a presidential candidate, former President Donald Trump continues to hold a commanding lead.

Winning more than 50% of the vote will mean Trump collects all of California’s 169 Republican convention delegates – 1,234 are needed to nominate – and the poll found he has the support of 53% of state Republicans.

His closest rival is Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis at 12%, followed by former South Carolina governor Nikki Haley at 9%.

Baldassare found that “Trump’s support has been remarkably steady in PPIC surveys,” despite a spate of criminal indictments and court appearances. He would still lose big in the general election to President Joe Biden, who the poll found has a 60% to 29% advantage.

Overall, the poll found what it called a “generally gloomy” electorate, as a majority had negative perceptions of the state of the state.

Sixty percent saw bad economic times ahead over the next year, while 52% thought things are trending in the wrong direction in California.

Fifty-four percent said they approved of Newsom’s handling of the economy, while 49% feel that way about the state legislature.

The poll was based on a survey of 2,250 California adult residents. Figures in this story reflect the 1,395 likely voters included in that number. Margin of error for likely voters is 4%, and for all adults, 3.3%. Median time to complete the survey was 19 minutes. Interviews were conducted from October 3–19, 2023.