Adam Schiff has a ton of cash for California Senate race. Why that doesn’t guarantee he’ll win

Adam Schiff’s Senate campaign had $32.1 million on hand at the end of last month, nearly three times as much as his closest rival, Katie Porter.

But is his big advantage going to help Schiff — or make him a fat target for opponents and critics who say he’s too tied to monied interests?

Money is usually a big advantage in politics, not always.

Former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg spent about $1 billion of his own money in his 2020 bid to win the Democratic presidential nomination, more than the other contenders combined that spring. He left the race after three months after winning little support.

Members of Congress are occasionally vulnerable to grassroots uprisings. House Majority Leader Eric Cantor, R-Va., was “the envy of congressional colleagues” for his fundraising prowess, said OpenSecrets, which tracks campaign spending. Cantor raised $5.4 million for his 2014 primary campaign against little known Dave Brat. Brat raised $222,000, and won.

In the California Senate race, money is a big campaign talking point. Porter says Schiff’s campaign is top-heavy with cash from corporate interests (Schiff does not accept donations from corporate PACs). Rep. Barbara Lee, another contender, stresses how she’s running a campaign based on grassroots support, not big dollar contributions.

History says more money usually matters. “Money can help keep Schiff’s name in the media spotlight,” said Kambiz Akhavan, Executive Director, University of South California Dornsife Center for the Political Future.

““For better or worse, let’s face it, for worse, money is often what separates candidates who win from those who don’t,” he said.

But the focus on money also overlooks a range of other factors — the quality of a campaign organization, the passion of grassroots supporters, positions on key issues and regional or national economic trends.

Rep. John Garamendi, D-Davis, who has run statewide, said having the biggest campaign treasury “is not always positive.”

To win, said the former lieutenant governor and insurance commissioner, “there are a whole set of factors to win statewide in California. Money is one but it’s not the only factor.” Garamendi has outraised and outspent his opponents in his congressional races since at least 2010, OpenSecrets says.

California’s primary election day is March 5. The top two finishers, regardless of political party, move on to November’s general election.

The money chase

Schiff, D-Burbank, and Porter, D-Irvine, started their Senate races with money left over from their House campaigns, according to Open Secrets, a nonpartisan campaign finance research group.

Schiff’s 2022 campaign had $20.9 million — reflecting his easy time winning re-election — while Porter, in a tougher race, ended with $7.4 million. Lee, D-Oakland, had $52,000.

Porter was the second highest House fundraiser during the 2022 cycle, said OpenSecrets, Schiff was fourth. Topping the national list was former Speaker Kevin McCarthy, R-Bakersfield, and third was Speaker Emerita Nancy Pelosi, D-San Francisco.

In the latest spending and contribution reports, Porter had $11.1 million on hand through Sept. 30. Lee had $1.3 million and Lexi Reese, a Democratic entrepreneur, had $682,478 available.

Lee’s campaign said it’s undaunted by their opponents’ fundraising. “We know when we bring our message directly to the voters, they overwhelmingly support Barbara Lee. We’re confident we’ll have the resources necessary to do just that,” said David Graham-Caso, the Lee campaign communications director..

Among Republicans, Attorney Eric Early had $86,846 on hand at the end of September while former health care executive James Bradley had $344.

The candidates are vying for the seat now held by Sen. Laphonza Butler, a Democrat appointed by Gov. Gavin Newsom after Sen. Dianne Feinstein, D-Calif., died Sept. 29. Butler, a veteran political insider, said she will not the full term.

Is money a big deal?

Opinions were split on the role of money in the Senate campaign. Here’s why political professionals thought having a big money advantage helps:

▪ Quick reactions. “It allows him (Schiff) to counter any attacks that come his way,” said Rep. Jim Costa, D-Fresno, a Schiff supporter. Schiff can quickly blanket television or social media with a response to an attack.

▪ Ground game. While California’s size makes going door-to-door a challenge, lots of money can pay for qualified organizers and workers. “It allows him to put together a very impressive get out the vote effort,” Costa said.

▪ Advertising. The top Democratic candidates’ congressional voting records are not all that different, and “Schiff’s money can go towards showing how his legislative achievements, leadership style, personal character, and vision for California are different from his opponents,” said Akhavan.

▪ General election. If Schiff and Porter maintain their financial advantage and finish the March primary in the top two, they’ll have the funds to re-introduce themselves to voters who didn’t support them, such as Republicans and independents.

But having all that money has its drawbacks:

▪ Ties to the establishment. Lee says “people power will win this campaign.” She’s well known and respected among progressives for defying Democratic orthodoxy — she was the only member of Congress to vote against U.S. military involvement in Afghanistan in 2001. With her views and her record, money is less important than the support she’s built among like-minded voters over the years.

▪ Rejecting big money. Porter refuses to take donations from Big Oil, Big Pharma, Wall Street, payday lenders, defense contractors, and other corporate political action committees. And, she said, she’s never taken corporate PAC money and “refuses donations from federal lobbyists.”

▪ Playing the underdog. “We have a Congress made up of rich people, of privileged people,” Porter told a candidate forum last week. “I have never taken a dime of corporate PAC money and I refuse lobbyist money. My entire career has been about holding big corporations and cheaters accountable.” Lee and Schiff also are not accepting corporate PAC money in their campaigns.

▪ The multi-candidate field. Chances are that the two candidates who survive the primary will not get more than 29%, said Graham-Caso. That means Lee, who’s relying on strong support from progressives and grassroots supporters, “does not need as much money as her opponents, she just needs enough money to talk to the voters that she needs to get into the top two.”

All in all, having a lot of money at least allows a candidate to claim prominence, most experts found, at least at this early stage.

“Money is the gas in the campaign tank. Without money, campaigns can’t move forward,” said Akhavan.