Is adding Boise State and other Mountain West teams the key to Pac-12’s survival? | Analysis

The Pac-12 may be on life support.

USC and UCLA announced last year that they plan to join the Big Ten by 2024. They likely will be joined by Oregon and Washington, according to media outlets around the country.

What may have been the Pac-12’s fatal blow landed Friday night. The presidents and chancellors of Big 12 schools voted unanimously to add Arizona State, Arizona and Utah, bringing the league to 16 teams. Colorado also announced last month that it’s joining the Big 12.

Rumors of the Pac-12’s demise have been swirling for a while now. Its leadership has struggled to put together a new media rights deal, while the Big Ten, Big 12 and SEC have grown through conference realignment. Texas and Oklahoma are scheduled to join the SEC in 2024. BYU, UCF, Houston and Cincinnati joined the Big 12 this year.

All that’s left of the Pac-12 is Oregon State, Washington State, Cal and Stanford. There’s no way it survives that without raiding another conference.

This is where Boise State fans’ ears should perk up.

Is this the moment Boise State has been waiting for since the 2007 Fiesta Bowl and a long list of Top 25 seasons helped put it on the map? Is this the Broncos’ chance to join a Power Five Conference — albeit one that isn’t quite as sexy as it used to be?

The Pac-12 certainly could scoop up the top teams from the Mountain West and American Athletic Conference in a desperate attempt to survive.

San Diego State thought its invite was in the mail a month ago, but it resigned itself to staying in the Mountain West. That may have just changed, and Boise State, Fresno State, UNLV and Colorado State may have suddenly become just as attractive as the Aztecs.

San Diego State and UNLV offer access to large TV markets. Fresno State would provide an additional foothold in California. Boise State has more sustained success and a stronger brand than just about any program in the Group of Five. Colorado State has a base of donors with deep pockets and the facilities to prove it.

The major hurdle the Pac-12 would have to clear before adding any teams from the Mountain West next season is the conference’s exit fees. Teams trying to join next year would owe $34 million. If they wait until 2025, the fee drops to about $17 million.

It’s common for conferences that add teams to then help schools pay exit fees, but that could add up pretty quick if the Pac-12 is going to add five or six teams.

The Pac-12 could also try to poach Memphis and SMU from the AAC, which added UTSA, Charlotte, Florida Atlantic, North Texas, Rice and UAB this year.

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Mountain West expansion?

What if the Pac-12 implodes instead of expands?

That would leave Oregon State, Washington State, Cal and Stanford without a home. Maybe the Mountain West should roll out the welcome mat for at least a couple of those programs.

Cal and Stanford don’t seem like the best fits from an academic or athletic perspective. It’s unclear if they would even be willing to join, given their lofty academic standards. They could end up as independents if the Pac-12 ceases to exit, unless the Big Ten decides their academic profiles are too tempting to ignore.

The Beavers and Cougars are a different story.

Both programs have been middling in the Pac-12, but they would likely come in and compete among the best teams in the Mountain West right away.

Corvallis, Oregon, and Pullman, Washington, are already easier trips for the Broncos to make than several of the cities hosting Mountain West members, and Boise State already has both teams on the schedule.

The Broncos opened last season against Oregon State, and they’re scheduled to host the Beavers in 2024. They’re also scheduled to face Washington State in 2032 and 2033.

Oregon State has also scheduled games against Fresno State (2025), San Diego State (2023 and 2026), New Mexico (2027 and 2028) and San Jose State (2029 and 2030).

The Cougars have scheduled games against Colorado State (2023), San Diego State (2024 and 2025), San Jose State (2024 and 2031) and Fresno State (2026 and 2027).

Neither Oregon State nor Washington State are in large TV markets, so they probably won’t come in and move the needle that much in terms of TV dollars.

What they would do is make the Mountain West a much more competitive football conference, which would carry a lot of weight when the College Football Playoff expands to 12 teams in 2024.

Oregon State was ranked No. 17 in the country in last season’s final AP Top 25 poll, and the Beavers will probably be ranked when this season begins. Washington State almost cracked the Top 25 last year.

The six highest-ranked conference champions get automatic bids. What’s the best way to improve the odds that a conference champion gets one of those bids? Make sure the conference schedule is competitive enough that teams don’t have to rely on upsetting a nonconference opponent to ensure they’re ranked high enough.

It’s doubtful that Oregon State or Washington State want to take the pay cut that comes with a move to the Mountain West. The Pac-12 distributed about $37 million to each of its members in fiscal year 2022. Mountain West payouts were closer to $6 million.

The problem for both programs is they may not have a choice.

The conferences could also merge, adding what’s left of the Pac-12 to the Mountain West, creating a 16-team league.

The conference realignment roller coaster has been chugging away at warp speed, and it probably isn’t going to slow down anytime soon. Whether the Pac-12 expands or implodes, the next few weeks should be anything but boring.