AFC Championship Game Preview: Buffalo’s missed opportunities in Week 6

The AFC Championship Game is set. In the wake of the Kansas City Chiefs narrowly taking care of the Cleveland Browns on Sunday, Andy Reid and company will host the Buffalo Bills next weekend with a trip to Tampa Bay on the line.

Obviously a huge storyline will be the health of Patrick Mahomes, who left Sunday’s game with a concussion. But there are no shortage of other fascinating elements to this contest. This game is a rematch of a Week 6 meeting between the two teams in Buffalo. At that time the two organizations were already being billed as two of the best in the conference, with the teams holding matching 4-1 records entering the game. Both teams were also coming off of losses, with the Bills losing to the Tennessee Titans in a rescheduled game the previous week, while the Chiefs fell to the Las Vegas Raiders in a stunner.

The Chiefs emerged victorious on this evening 26-17, and in large part it was do to how they slowed down Josh Allen and the Bills offense. They held Allen to just 14 of 27 passing for 122 yards, a touchdown and an interception, and Allen was also Buffalo’s leading rusher on the evening with 42 yards on eight carries, a mark that might have provided some foreshadowing for Buffalo’s offense down the stretch.

For many, the takeaway from this game – coupled with the loss to Tennessee – was that defenses were starting to figure out how to defend Allen, and the answer was zone coverage. This game is part of a mid-season stretch where the third-year quarterback struggled against zone designs. In a four-game run against the Titans, the Chiefs, the New York Jets and the New England Patriots in the middle of the year Allen put up these numbers against zone coverages (defined as Cover-2, Cover-3, Cover-4, Cover-6 and Tampa-2) according to Sports Info Solutions:

50 completions on 78 attempts for 580 yards, one touchdown and four interceptions, and an NFL Passer Rating of 69.4.

That, by the way, includes a game against the New York Jets that the Bills won by eight, and in which Allen threw for over 300 yards. Stripping out that game leaves you with Allen completing 35 of 42 for 332 yards, 1 TD, 4 interceptions and an NFL Passer Rating of 67.96.

That stretch perhaps spurred growth from Allen, in terms of figuring out how to attack zone coverage schemes. During a later stretch of the season, starting with the San Francisco 49ers in Week 13 and concluding with the Patriots in Week 16, here is how Allen fared against zone coverage: 52 of 74 for 617 yards, 4 TDs 1 INT. An NFL passer rating of 107.77.

So, a quick and easy read of this game might be that Allen figured out zone coverage schemes, and the Chiefs might play more man coverage.

This is the point in the piece where I bring up the Al Pacino speech from “Any Given Sunday” about football being a game of inches, and how life imitates art, before diving into some clips. I would even link that locker room address, but it is 2021 dear reader and I’m pretty sure if you do not have that memorized, you know how to find it. But I digress.

Back in their earlier meeting, it is not as if Kansas City played zone coverage on every single snap. They played some man coverage as well. The difference on that night might have been this: When they played man and there were opportunities, the Bills did not capitalize.

But they were darn close.

Take for example this throw from midway trough the first quarter. The Bills face a 1st-and-10 on the Kansas City 33-yard line, and put Allen in the shotgun. They use presnap movement to try and give the quarterback a man/zone coverage indicator, but when the play begins the Chiefs drop into man coverage. Allen looks for Stefon Diggs on a deep crossing route working from right-to-left – a throw he has been deadly on this season – and there is an opportunity for a huge play early in a scoreless contest:

But the two cannot connect, and an opportunity against man coverage is missed.

Just two plays later, the Bills face a 3rd-and-7 at the Kansas City 30-yard line. Buffalo breaks the huddle in an empty formation, but prior to the snap running back Devin Singletary adjusts to align next to Allen in the backfield. When cornerback Bashaud Breeland trails the running back, Allen knows it is man coverage.

In fact, the Chiefs use a Cover-0 blitz on the play. Buffalo runs a mesh concept with crossing route underneath and Singletary releasing to the flat on the right side. There is a quick window for Allen to hit the running back with nothing but space, but the QB hesitates before sliding to his right a bit. Then when he makes the throw, the two cannot connect:

Again, inches. This play could have been at least a first down, extending the drive, if not more. Instead the Bills were forced to settle for a 48-yard field goal from rookie kicker Tyler Bass. As many have said before me, you do not beat the Chiefs by settling for field goals.

Later in the game, another missed opportunity to extend a drive. Facing a 3rd-and-6 on their own 30-yard line, the Bills align in empty with three receivers to the left. The Chiefs have a 4-1-6 defensive package in the game and run Cover-1, a man-free coverage scheme. Allen looks for Cole Beasley on a shallow working left-to-right as part of a Shallow Cross concept:

Again, inches. Looking at this play from the end zone angle gives you a better view of how close Buffalo is on this play:

If this pass is caught Beasley has space to room and picks up the first down, and probably a lot more. He has a step or two on cornerback Rashad Fenton, and has an angle to get past the next-closest defender, linebacker Ben Niemann.

Instead the Bills are forced to punt.

It is true that one of the lessons after this game, particularly in conjunction with the games around this one, is that Allen struggled a bit against zone coverage. But when given opportunities to throw against man coverage (something he was carving up in the weeks leading up to this game, and something he carved up all season long for the most part) Allen failed to deliver in those moments. Not by much, but by inches in most cases.

In football, the inches you need are all around you. For Allen and the Bills, those inches might add up to a trip to the Super Bowl.