Here we go again: 2nd tornado outbreak in 5 days looms for Midwest
Many of the same areas in the central United States that were hit by violent thunderstorms on Friday will face a similar threat starting late Tuesday as another powerful system takes aim at the region with many modes of severe weather ranging from damaging winds to large hail and destructive tornadoes, AccuWeather meteorologists warn.
Like this past Friday, at least 16 states in the middle of the United States are at risk for severe weather and tornadoes through Tuesday night. The risk includes all of Missouri and Illinois, much of Arkansas and Iowa, and portions of Indiana, Texas, Oklahoma, Louisiana, Mississippi, Tennessee, Kentucky, Kansas, Nebraska, Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Michigan.
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"Tuesday's setup will be similar to last Friday's outbreak with a potent area of low pressure tracking over the Upper Midwest, as well as surging warm, moist air coming up from the south," AccuWeather Meteorologist Andrew Johnson-Levine said. "The combination of warm, moist air and strong winds from the ground on up through the jet stream level of the atmosphere will allow for numerous severe thunderstorms, as well as tornadoes."
More than two dozen people lost their lives and dozens of others were injured due to severe weather on Friday, according to NBC news. On Friday alone, there were more than 600 filtered reports of severe weather, including 116 reports of tornadoes in the central U.S. An additional 250-plus severe weather incidents occurred on Saturday as storms pushed into the Eastern states.
As of Monday morning, 80 of the over 100 reported tornadoes from Friday have already been confirmed by National Weather Service (NWS) officials, including one EF4 tornado in southeastern Iowa with winds estimated to be between 166 and 200 mph. There were at least nine EF3 tornadoes with winds between 136 and 165 mph.
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AccuWeather meteorologists increased the area of concern for Tuesday to a high risk, three days in advance of the severe weather and sooner than the NWS. The team of forecasters, many based in State College, Pennsylvania, and Wichita, Kansas, sounded the alert for this event more than a week in advance. As of Monday morning, the threat level for Tuesday was increased to an extreme risk by AccuWeather meteorologists, which is saved for rare, extremely dangerous events. Last Friday's severe risk also received extreme status.
Nearly 70 million people are already at risk for severe weather on Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday night alone, according to the Storm Prediction Center. However, factoring in severe weather that is likely to continue on Wednesday farther to the east, the number may grow to 100 million or more.
The threat of powerful thunderstorms, including tornadoes, will extend past dark and could peak during the first half of the night before continuing into the pre-dawn hours in the Midwest. The nocturnal tornado threat will add to the danger from the fast-moving severe weather, Johnson-Levine warned.
Several tornadoes were confirmed during the late afternoon hours Tuesday, including in western Illinois and in Pleasantville, Iowa, just outside of Des Moines.
There may be a natural barrier in the atmosphere that the thunderstorms have to overcome during much of the day on Tuesday. But, once that barrier is breached, the lid may come off and a swarm of severe thunderstorms, some with tornadoes, could be released late in the day and at night.
The greatest risk to lives and property will stem from the likelihood of multiple tornadoes, some of which may be strong and long-lasting. Similar to the setup from last Friday, some of the tornadoes that form may rip along at 40 mph or faster, which will give only a few moments for people to seek shelter. AccuWeather meteorologists urge people to take the severe weather threat seriously, have a plan of action in place before the storms arrive, and closely monitor weather alerts as they are issued.
The impacts from straight-line high winds produced by thunderstorms and the strong nature of the advancing cold front are expected to be widespread. Wind gusts ranging between 60 and 80 mph with an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 100 mph are anticipated with the upcoming severe weather through Tuesday night.
The risk of damaging straight-line winds, hail and at least a few tornadoes will continue on Wednesday, but farther to the east in the Midwest, when compared to Tuesday. Wednesday's threat zone will most likely include the eastern portion of the Ohio Valley to the eastern Great Lakes region and part of the central Appalachians.
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There are dozens of major cities and thousands of small towns and rural communities in the potential path of severe weather in the Heartland on Tuesday and Wednesday.
Farther south, gusty and locally severe thunderstorms are also anticipated from Mississippi to the upper Texas coast and southern Louisiana on Wednesday. The greatest threat from these storms from the southern Tennessee Valley to the Gulf coast will be from large hail, isolated straight-line wind gusts and torrential downpours although isolated tornadoes cannot be ruled out either.
Some of the major cities with airport hubs that could experience ground stops as severe weather threatens on Tuesday or Tuesday night include Chicago; Milwaukee; St. Louis; Kansas City, Missouri; Memphis, Tennessee; Des Moines, Iowa; and Little Rock, Arkansas. The severe weather outbreak could affect airline passengers with flights originating from, connecting through, or as a final destination in these hubs and others. A ripple effect on some other flights throughout the nation is possible late Tuesday as well.
Major cities that AccuWeather has already deemed to be at a moderate risk of severe weather for Wednesday include Detroit, Cleveland and London, Ontario, while Pittsburgh, Toronto and Buffalo, New York, are at some risk of severe storms.
On Thursday, the potential for severe weather will exist east of the Appalachians.
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While some of the storms may not reach intense levels, a number of incidents with high winds, hail and torrential downpours are possible from southern New Jersey to eastern Georgia.
Rain will reach farther to the north with Tuesday's storm when compared to the storm from last Friday.
Just southeast of the snow area, and north of the massive zone of severe weather, heavy rain will fall on parts of southern Minnesota and central Wisconsin.
Much of this area received snowfall that was well above the historical average this winter, and until recently, there were a few feet of snow on the ground. It is possible that the heavy rain and melting snow will initiate stream and river flooding in the region.
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This storm may bring the first significant surge of water through the northern part of the Mississippi River, above St. Louis, this spring. Portions of the lower Mississippi, below St. Louis, have begun to experience surges in water levels since the early part of the winter. More recently, minor flooding has occurred along portions of the Ohio River, with incidents of moderate flooding along some of its tributaries.
AccuWeather's long-range team of meteorologists is expecting major flooding along the Red River of the North later this spring with the potential for at least moderate flooding along the northern portion of the Mississippi River in the coming weeks.
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