AL East Preview: Breaking down the tight battle to be the Beast of the East
It used to be that when you were predicting the American League East, you could thoughtlessly pencil the Yankees and Red Sox into the top two spots.
That is no longer the case, as Tampa Bay got off the mat after eating punches for 10 years, becoming the annoying little brother who finally figured out how to beat their older siblings. Toronto had arguably the best offseason of any AL team, turning an already very good team into a potentially great one. We can count out the Orioles this year (and probably for a few more after this, too) but there are enough tanking blueprints for them to follow now, and if they can successfully mimic the plans that have been executed by the Cubs, Astros and Giants of recent years, they’ll be formidable in the near future.
By breaking down the division into baseball’s four main categories — offense, defense, starting rotation and bullpen — the four non-Baltimore teams predictably pull away from the field, creating a race that will likely be decided by injuries, flukish performances and other strokes of classically stupid baseball luck.
OFFENSE
5. Orioles
4. Rays
3. YANKEES
2. Red Sox
1. Blue Jays
The Blue Jays had the best non-Astros offense in the league last season, and while they lost Marcus Semien and his 45 home runs, it’s not out of the question for both Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette — neither of whom have celebrated their 25th birthday yet — to take another step forward. If that happens, Vlad Jr. is probably looking at an MVP award while Bichette challenges a 30-30 season. A full season of clean health from George Springer certainly won’t hurt either, and if Teoscar Hernandez and Lourdes Gurriel Jr. can match their production from 2021, the Jays have the best 1-5 hitters in the division. This is to say nothing of Matt Chapman, who hit 36 home runs with a double-digit walk rate as recently as 2019.
Boston has the bats to go toe-to-toe with Toronto, but the upside of the Blue Jays’ baby boppers gives them the edge here. Still, a lineup with Xander Bogaerts, Rafael Devers, J.D. Martinez and Trevor Story is going to do numbers. Like their biggest rival, the Red Sox’s lineup falls off pretty significantly around the seventh spot. The Yankees could very well win the exit velocity crown, but Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton can only take them so far. At least two people from the DJ LeMahieu, Joey Gallo and/or Gleyber Torres group need to bounce back in the worst way. Right now, the Yankees’ shortstop and catcher positions are total black holes at the plate too.
The Rays certainly do not have a bad offense, they just play in baseball’s historically hitter-friendly division. Every team would kill for a Wander Franco, and Brandon Lowe continues to be one of the most underrated players in the AL. Baltimore center fielder Cedric Mullins is a very good player who is worth your attention. His teammates are trying their best.
DEFENSE
5. Red Sox
4. YANKEES
3. Orioles
2. Blue Jays
1. Rays
Both the Yankees and Red Sox finished in the top five of total errors made last season, while the Yankees were dead last among AL teams in Defensive Runs Saved. Jettisoning Gleyber Torres off of shortstop and Gary Sanchez to a different team altogether will help, and their replacements are among the best leathermen in the game. That, plus a full year of Joey Gallo’s rangy athleticism in the outfield, moves the Yankees out of the bottom spot.
Watch a series against Tampa Bay and try to notice how many defensive mistakes they make. It won’t be very many. With Mike Zunino and Kevin Kiermaier, the Rays have the best defensive catcher and center fielder in the game, holding down two premiere positions with graceful ease and in Kiermaier’s case, sometimes reckless abandon. Right fielder Manuel Margot, who would play center for nearly every other team, led MLB outfielders in Outs Above Average last season. Trying to get a ball past the Rays’ fielders is harder than getting the team’s front office to give out a $100 million contract.
STARTING ROTATION
5. Orioles
4. Red Sox
3. YANKEES
2. Rays
1. Blue Jays
The Red Sox are relying on Michael Wacha (who has a 5.48 ERA over the last three years) and Rich Hill (who just turned 42) to be 40% of their rotation. The Yankees’ top three of Gerrit Cole, Luis Severino and Jordan Montgomery can be legitimately excellent, but Severino has already experienced general soreness in spring training and was scratched from a start, while Montgomery just threw the most innings of his career. Meanwhile, Toronto just extended Jose Berrios, signed Kevin Gausman, and after Statcast darling Alek Manoah and consummate veteran Hyun-Jin Ryu, they’ll have 2021 All-Star Yusei Kikuchi in the fifth spot.
The Rays’ rotation never looks that great on paper, but their pitching development team could turn you and I into quality starters. Don’t worry about the Rays. Orioles’ lefty John Means threw a no-hitter last year. That’s pretty cool.
BULLPEN
5. Orioles
4. Blue Jays
3. Red Sox
2. YANKEES
1. Rays
Relief pitching is the Blue Jays’ unquestioned Achilles’ heel. If they end up losing out on a playoff spot, the unraveling will come in the late innings. The Yankees can’t expect Jonathan Loaisiga, Chad Green and Lucas Luetge to be worth 5.4 combined Wins Above Replacement again (roughly the equivalent of one Gerrit Cole), but they stand to be very good again. Clay Holmes is no joke either, and Joely Rodriguez is a hellish experience for left-handed hitters.
This is where the Rays really separate themselves, though. Their famed “stable of guys that throw 98″ helped knock the Yankees out of the playoffs in 2020, and they returned last year to post the highest WAR of any bullpen unit. There’s no reason to expect anything will change.
PREDICTION
5. Orioles
4. Red Sox
3. YANKEES
2. Rays
1. Blue Jays
One through four could really go in any order, and while all of the top quartet could win 90 games, someone has to finish fourth. The Red Sox’s pitching looks disastrous enough to completely undo the hitters’ good work, the Yankees need too many things to break right, and it’s very unwise to bet against the Rays.
Toronto’s ranking is based more on hype than on-field production, but when you factor in the jolt that the Blue Jays will get from playing all 81 home games in front of their crazed Canadian crowd for the first time in three years — plus the possible advantage that would come with unvaccinated visiting players not being eligible for games in Toronto — and the Blue Jays emerge as the Beast of the East.