Alabama basketball vs. Auburn: Score prediction, scouting report
Auburn basketball has had a rough couple of weeks.
After losing only three of the first 19 games on the schedule, the Tigers have dropped four of their past five games.
Granted, three of those four losses have been to Texas A&M (twice) and No. 5 Tennessee, so those aren't bottom-dweller SEC teams. And only one loss over that stretch was by double digits. Nonetheless, Auburn (17-7, 7-4 SEC) is going to be fighting hard to avoid a third consecutive loss when No. 3 Alabama (21-3, 11-0) comes to town Saturday (1 p.m., ESPN).
Here's a look at the Tigers and how they stack up with the Crimson Tide.
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Projected starting lineup for Auburn
Guard Wendell Green Jr. (junior): 5-foot-11, 175 pounds. Averages: 13.9 points, 3.4 rebounds, 4.4 assists, 1.7 steals, 0 blocks, 3 turnovers.
Guard Zep Jasper (senior): 6-1, 190. Averages: 3.3 points, 1 rebound, 0.5 assists, 0.5 steals, 0 blocks, 0.2 turnovers.
Forward Allen Flanigan (senior): 6-6, 220. Averages: 9.5 points, 5 rebounds, 1.4 assists, 0.8 steals, 0.3 blocks, 2 turnovers.
Forward Jaylin Williams (senior): 6-8, 230. Averages: 10.5 points, 5.3 rebounds, 2.4 assists, 1.1 steals, 1 block, 1.1 turnovers.
Center Johni Broome (sophomore): 6-10, 235. Averages: 13.7 points, 9 rebounds, 1.2 assists, 1 steal, 2.6 blocks, 1.8 turnovers.
Broome will have to be a focal point for Alabama to contain. He is fourth in the SEC in field-goal percentage (52.9%), second in rebounds and third in blocks per game.
Green is third in the SEC in assists per game.
Auburn's rotation
Auburn has about 10 players who average 10 or more minutes per game. Outside of the starting five, which has been the lineup 34.2% of the time the past five games per KenPom, K.D. Johnson is used frequently. He averages 21.1 minutes and 8.1 points per game. Chris Moore (15.9 minutes per game) and Dylan Cardwell (14 minutes) could also see some time in the lineup.
How Auburn stacks up with Alabama in scoring, defense and tempo
KenPom tracks adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency, which are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions. Auburn is comparable to the Florida team the Crimson Tide just faced in these statistics in that both opponents have top 15 defenses but offenses that aren't necessarily elite.
As far as tempo goes, Alabama plays faster than Auburn, as the Crimson Tide does against just about every team it faces. Alabama remains No. 1 in the nation in tempo. KenPom measures the adjusted tempo statistic based on the number of possessions per 40 minutes.
Adjusted offensive efficiency:
Auburn: 111.6 (60th nationally)
Alabama: 117 (15th)
Adjusted defensive efficiency:
Auburn: 93.4 (15th nationally)
Alabama: 90 (6th)
Tempo
Auburn: 67.8 (144th nationally)
Alabama: 73.6 (1st)
Score prediction
Alabama 76, Auburn 68: Winning at a hostile Neville Arena won't be easy. It's going to be a battle, but if Alabama plays to its ability and limits turnovers, it will get out of Auburn with a 12th SEC victory.
This article originally appeared on The Tuscaloosa News: Alabama basketball vs. Auburn: Score prediction, scouting report
