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Alabama basketball vs. Kentucky: Score prediction, scouting report

nick kelly, the tuscaloosa news
·3 min read
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Alabama basketball's post defense has been tested plenty this season. Gonzaga's Drew Timme, North Carolina's Armando Bacot, Mississippi State's Tolu Smith are a few of the names. Yet the toughest matchup on the schedule could be this week.

Kentucky's Oscar Tshiebwe is coming to Tuscaloosa, and Alabama best be ready. He's the reigning national player of the year, as selected by the Sporting News, Associated Press, the United States Basketball Writers Association and more. Once again, he's averaging a double-double.

Charles Bediako and Alabama's other bigs will need to fare well for the Crimson Tide to win. But overall, this Kentucky team has shown it is vulnerable. The Wildcats have lost four games already: Michigan State, Gonzaga, UCLA and Missouri.

No. 7 Alabama (12-2, 2-0 SEC) aims to join that list Saturday (noon CT, ESPN) when it faces the Wildcats (10-4, 1-1) at Coleman Coliseum.

Here's our scouting report of the Wildcats and a score prediction.

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Projected starting lineup for Kentucky

Guard Sahvir Wheeler (senior): 5-foot-9, 180 pounds. Averages: 9.1 points, 2.6 rebounds, 6.8 assists, 0.9 steals, 0.2 blocks, 2.3 turnovers

Guard Cason Wallace (freshman): 6-foot-4, 193 pounds. Averages: 12.9 points, 3.6 rebounds, 3.9 assists, 2.3 steals, 0.3 blocks, 1.7 turnovers

Forward Chris Livingston (freshman): 6-foot-6, 220 pounds. Averages: 5.7 points, 2.9 rebounds, 0.5 assists, 0.4 steals, 0.1 blocks, 0.8 turnovers

Forward Jacob Toppin (senior): 6-foot-9, 205 pounds. Averages: 11.5 points, 6.1 rebounds, 1.8 assists, 0.5 steals, 0.4 blocks, 1.3 turnovers

Center Oscar Tshiebwe (senior): 6-foot-9, 260 pounds. Averages: 16.8 points, 13.8 rebounds, 1.5 assists, 1.7 steals, 1.3 blocks, 2.0 turnovers

Wheeler, Wallace, Toppin and Tshiebwe have been the four main regulars in the starting lineup. Antonio Reeves could see some time instead of Livingston. The duo has split minutes at the small forward spot.

Kentucky's rotation

Up to 13 players are included in the Wildcats' rotation. That many players probably won't see that much time, but Kentucky has used that many this season. Behind the six already mentioned, forward Lance Ware is another who has seen a fair amount of time. Behind him in time on the court are guards CJ Frederick and Cason Wallace. Ware and Frederick were out against LSU this week with injuries, though. They are considered day-to-day, per the team.

Who sees the court off the bench will be determined by availability but also matchups.

How Kentucky stacks up with Alabama in scoring, defense and tempo

KenPom tracks adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency, which are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions. The Wildcats have a slight edge on offense but Alabama has a better defense.

As far as tempo goes, Alabama is going to try to play much faster than Kentucky will on offense. That's the case for most teams the Crimson Tide will face. The number listed for tempo via KenPom is based on number of possessions per 40 minutes.

Adjusted offensive efficiency:

Kentucky: 113.8 (15th nationally)

Alabama: 113.1 (16th)

Adjusted defensive efficiency:

Kentucky: 93.9 (46th)

Alabama: 89.4 (13th)

Tempo

Kentucky: 66.5 (260th nationally)

Alabama: 74.7 (3rd)

Score prediction

Alabama 82, Kentucky 73: This Wildcats team still has Tshiebwe, and he could give Alabama problems. But if the Crimson Tide can contain him, Alabama should leave Coleman Coliseum with the victory.

This article originally appeared on The Tuscaloosa News: Alabama basketball vs. Kentucky: Score prediction, scouting report