Alabama basketball vs. LSU: Score prediction, scouting report

Nick Kelly, The Tuscaloosa News
·4 min read
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Alabama basketball will face a team this weekend at Coleman Coliseum in LSU that inches closer and closer to the wall. The Tigers don't have their backs against it quite yet, but they're not far away from that spot.

Under the direction of first-year coach Matt McMahon, the Tigers enter the matchup with the Crimson Tide on a three-game losing streak. LSU (12-4, 1-3 SEC) has won only one game in SEC play: a matchup with Arkansas at the end of December.

Since then, the Tigers have dropped games to Kentucky (74-71), Texas A&M (69-56) and Florida (67-56).

Next up, is No. 4 Alabama (14-2, 4-0). The two teams will face each other Saturday (3 p.m., ESPN) at Coleman Coliseum in Tuscaloosa in the first of two matchups this season. Alabama travels to LSU on Feb. 4.

Crimson Tide coach Nate Oats said he considers this game a maturity test after the big win over No. 16 Arkansas.

"Can you still prepare for LSU losing three in a row like you just prepared for Arkansas?' Oats said. "To me, that's a sign of maturity. You've got to do what you've got to do if you're going to compete for an SEC championship. You can't lose home games to teams you're supposed to beat because you didn't prepare for them."

Oats commended Alabama's energy in practice Friday, though, and called it a good practice.

Ahead of the matchup, here's a look at LSU and how it matches up with the Crimson Tide.

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Projected starting lineup for LSU

Guard Justice Hill (senior): 6-foot, 175 pounds. Averages: 7.2 points, 2 rebounds, 3.7 assists, 1.3 steals, 0.1 blocks, 1.6 turnovers

Guard Adam Miller (sophomore): 6-3, 190 pounds. Averages: 13 points, 2.1 rebounds, 1.4 assists, 0.6 steals, 0.2 blocks, 1.9 turnovers

Guard Trae Hannibal (senior): 6-2, 185 pounds. Averages: 6.1 points, 4.6 rebounds, 2.9 assists, 0.9 steals, 0.1 blocks, 2.2 turnovers

Forward Derek Fountain (junior): 6-10, 225 pounds. Averages: 7.4 points, 5.7 rebounds, 0.9 assists, 1.5 steals, 0.4 blocks, 1.4 turnovers

Center KJ Williams (senior): 6-10, 250 pounds. Averages: 18.5 points, 7.6 rebounds, 1.1 assists, 1.5 steals. 0.9 blocks, 1.6 turnovers

Williams is the player to watch. His scoring average is second only to Alabama's Brandon Miller in the SEC; Miller's averaging 18.8. Williams is also third in the SEC in shooting percentage (53.5%).

LSU's rotation

The Tigers have 10 players who average about 20% or more of the team's minutes, per KenPom. Williams, Miller, Hill, Hannibal, Fountain and Cam Hayes all average 45.3% or more. If there's a difference in the starting lineup from the one projected above, it's likely that Hayes would be the second guard with Hill, and Miller would be the shooting forward. That is the lineup LSU has used 16.4% of the time the past five games.

How LSU stacks up with Alabama in scoring, defense and tempo

KenPom tracks adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency, which are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions. Alabama has a considerable edge in both over LSU, but for offense in particular, the Crimson Tide has a significant advantage. Alabama ranks more than 100 spots higher than LSU.

Once again, Alabama has a big lead on its opponent in tempo. KenPom measures that statistic based on number of possessions per 40 minutes. LSU is in the bottom half among college basketball teams in this metric while Alabama is in the top three.

Adjusted offensive efficiency:

LSU: 105.8 (119th nationally)

Alabama: 115.2 (16th)

Adjusted defensive efficiency:

LSU: 97.7 (75th)

Alabama: 89.4 (9th)

Tempo

LSU: 66.9 (227th)

Alabama: 73.9 (3rd)

Score prediction

Alabama 82, LSU 67: It's going to take the Crimson Tide having an off night for this game to be close. Alabama on paper has a sizable advantage. As long as the Crimson Tide avoids a letdown after the Arkansas win, Alabama should win comfortably.

This article originally appeared on The Tuscaloosa News: Alabama basketball vs. LSU: Score prediction, scouting report