Alabama basketball vs. Mississippi State: Score prediction, scouting report
Alabama basketball and Mississippi State have taken much different paths since the two teams faced off at the end of December.
The Crimson Tide went the direction of winning every game since the matchup. Alabama remains the only team in the SEC undefeated in conference play. Meanwhile, the Bulldogs have won only one game since then.
Mississippi State has dropped seven of its past eight games. Alabama has won eight straight.
And now the Bulldogs will try to go to Coleman Coliseum and beat the No. 2 Crimson Tide (17-2, 7-0 SEC) on Wednesday (8 p.m., SEC Network).
Alabama won the previous matchup over Mississippi State in Starkville 78-67.
Ahead of the first rematch this season in conference play for Alabama, here's a look at the Bulldogs (12-7, 1-6) and how they stack up with the Crimson Tide.
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Projected starting lineup for Mississippi State
Guard Dashawn Davis (senior): 6-foot-2, 195 pounds. Averages: 8.2 points, 1.8 rebounds, 3.2 assists, 1.4 steals, 0.1 blocks, 1.8 turnovers.
Guard Eric Reed (senior): 6-2, 200 pounds. Averages: 5.3 points, 2.5 rebounds., 0.9 assists, 0.6 steals, 0.0 blocks, 0.3 turnovers.
Forward DJ Jeffries (senior): 6-7, 215 pounds. Averages: 9 points, 5.9 rebounds, 1.8 assists, 1.4 steals, 0.5 blocks, 1.2 turnovers.
Forward Cameron Matthews (junior): 6-7, 225 pounds. Averages: 6.5 points, 5.4 rebounds, 2.1 assists, 1.4 steals, 0.8 blocks, 1.4 turnovers.
Center Tolu Smith (senior): 6-foot-11, 245 pounds. Averages: 13.7 points, 8.1 rebounds, 1.5 assists, 0.5 steals, 0.6 blocks, 2.5 turnovers.
Smith is Mississippi State's best player. He's third in the conference in field-goal percentage (55.2%) and is fifth in rebounds per game (8.1). Still, he wasn't much trouble for Alabama in the first matchup. The Crimson Tide limited him to five points and six boards. He shot 1-for-7 from the field.
Mississippi State's rotation
The Bulldogs have had 11 players average 10 or more minutes this season. Shakeel Moore should see a good amount of time. He's fifth on the team in minutes with 22.1 per game. He is one of the best in the SEC in steals with 2.4 per game, which ranks second among all SEC players. Jeffries, Davis and Matthews are all averaging 1.4 steals per game as part of a Mississippi State defense that is third in the country in steal percentage, per KenPom.
How Mississippi State stacks up with Alabama in scoring, defense and tempo
KenPom tracks adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency, which are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions. Mississippi State is much better on defense than offense. The defensive success is fueled in part by an opportunistic group that can force turnovers. The Bulldogs' defense is No. 10 in the country in turnover percentage.
Alabama's defense could be in line for a big performance, though. It's one of the best in the country while Mississippi State does not have a strong offense.
Alabama plays significantly faster than Mississippi State. KenPom measures the adjusted tempo statistic based on the number of possessions per 40 minutes. The Bulldogs are among the slower teams while Alabama is among the fastest.
Adjusted offensive efficiency:
Mississippi State: 104.3 (168th nationally)
Alabama: 115.9 (13th)
Adjusted defensive efficiency:
Mississippi State: 91.1 (11th nationally)
Alabama: 88 (5th)
Tempo
Mississippi State: 64 (321st nationally)
Alabama: 73.7 (4th)
Score prediction
Alabama 72, Mississippi State 58: As long as Alabama doesn't turn the ball over much, it should win comfortably. Turnovers haven't been as much of a problem at home recently for the Crimson Tide anyway.
This article originally appeared on The Tuscaloosa News: Alabama basketball vs Mississippi State: Score prediction, scouting report
