Alabama football vs. Kansas State in Sugar Bowl: Our score prediction, scouting report

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The team many Alabama football fans were rooting for in the Big 12 conference championship, Kansas State, is the Crimson Tide's next opponent.

For Alabama to have any sort of chance to make the College Football Playoff heading into Sunday, it needed TCU to lose. That happened in overtime, but still it wasn't enough to bump the one-loss Horned Frogs from the playoff.

Instead, No. 5 Alabama (10-2) will face No. 9 Kansas State (10-3) in New Orleans on Saturday, Dec. 31 (11 a.m., ESPN) in the Sugar Bowl.

The game is being played on New Year's Eve as to avoid NFL scheduling conflicts Sunday. Monday also was not an option because ESPN has "Monday Night Football" in the prime-time slot.

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Alabama is 9-7 all-time in the Sugar Bowl. The last two times the Crimson Tide has played in the game, the Sugar Bowl was part of the College Football Playoff in 2015 and 2018.

How many Alabama players participate will be the next question. It's possible players such as quarterback Bryce Young and linebacker Will Anderson Jr. could opt out, considering both are expected to be top-15 picks in the 2023 NFL Draft this spring. Others could join, too.

Here's a look at Kansas State, with a scouting report, ahead of the Sugar Bowl.

Overall body of work

This Kansas State team enters the Sugar Bowl with some momentum. Winning the Big 12 championship over the No. 3 team in the country Saturday is only part of that.

The Wildcats have won four in a row, over Baylor, West Virginia, Kansas and TCU. Kansas State's last loss came to Texas 34-27 at home on Nov. 5.

That's a common opponent with Alabama. The Crimson Tide beat the Longhorns 20-19, but starting quarterback Quinn Ewers left the game in the first half with an injury.

The Wildcats' other losses were to ranked teams: TCU 38-28 in the regular season and No. 12 Tulane 17-10 back in September.

Overall, Kansas State had the No. 9 strength of record and No. 16 strength of schedule, per ESPN's College Football Power Index. Alabama, by comparison is No. 5 in strength of record and No. 9 in strength of schedule.

Quarterback situation

Nebraska transfer Adrian Martinez helped the Wildcats get to this point from his efforts earlier in the season, but he's no longer the guy at quarterback.

Any injury has kept Martinez from the lineup as of late, and Will Howard has stepped in and passed for multiple touchdowns each game. Howard has started each of the past three games for the Wildcats, passing for two touchdowns against West Virginia, Kansas and TCU in the conference championship game.

This season, Howard has completed 101 of 164 passes for 1,423 yards, 15 touchdowns and two interceptions over six games. He has started in four of those.

With almost a month until the bowl game, that could allow Martinez the opportunity to get back on the field. Still, Howard probably will be the starter considering the momentum he has.

There's a chance Martinez still could see playing time, even if not as the starter. Before the Big 12 championship, Wildcats coach Chris Klieman was talking about the potential of both playing.

"If (Martinez) is (available for TCU game), Will will be the guy, but we've got to have a package or something for Adrian, just because of the unique skillset that he does have," KSU coach Chris Klieman said last week.

The efforts of Martinez and Howard have led the Wildcats to the No. 33 scoring offense in the country this season, averaging 33.2 points per game.

Running back Deuce Vaughn another threat

The Kansas State running back will need to be a focus for the Alabama defense.

He finished third in the Big 12 with 109.6 rushing yards per game. This season, Vaughn has rushed 271 times for 1,425 yards and eight touchdowns. He also has caught three touchdowns.

Against TCU, he ran for 130 yards and a touchdown.

TCU defense

The Wildcats gave up an average of 20.1 points per game this season, the best mark in the Big 12.

That ranked No. 17 in the country. By comparison, Alabama finished No. 9, giving up 18 points per game. The total defense for the Wildcats is ranked No. 53 in the country, surrendering 365.8 yards per game.

Score prediction

Alabama 30, Kansas State 17: There's a big asterisk next to this. We don't yet know which Alabama players will be participating. If most of the team plays, Alabama should win. If many opt out, Kansas State might have the advantage.

This article originally appeared on The Tuscaloosa News: Alabama football vs. Kansas State in Sugar Bowl: Prediction, scouting report