Democrats should think twice before torpedoing a GOP proposal to raise teacher pay

Republican legislators on Monday unveiled a proposal to give Arizona’s public school teachers a 7% pay raise — one that likely would boost teacher pay to near the national average.

Already the knives are out.

Save Our Schools Arizona promptly pronounced the proposal “unacceptable,” even before the bill has been written and the details analyzed.

“The ‘teacher pay fund’ proposed today by legislative Republicans is a shell game that in real dollars represents deep cuts to K-12 schools,” the group huffed, in a statement released shortly after Republicans announced their pay plan.

Meanwhile, the Arizona Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee on Tuesday called the proposal “half baked” and harrumphed that Republicans are just trying to “rewrite their history on supporting public schools.”

Which might be true. But it’s also code for, “Drat those Republicans. We’ve been outflanked.”

Don't torpedo Republicans' plan yet

I understand the Democrats’ skepticism — as should anyone given two decades of Republican tax cuts that left the state unable to adequately provide for the education of our children.

But opponents to this plan should take a breath.

Sure, there are politics afoot. The Republicans’ teacher-pay proposal would be on the November 2024 ballot just as Democrats hope to wrest control of the Legislature from the GOP, which has a bare one-vote majority in each chamber.

But why would anyone so quickly dismiss a plan that just might give the state’s woefully underpaid teachers some relief?

The plan comes courtesy of Senate President Warren Petersen, with an assist from Rep. Matt Gress, R-Phoenix, who earlier this year proposed boosting teacher pay by $10,000 over the next two years — a plan that the Democrats immediately blasted as unacceptable.

The new plan calls for asking voters next year to renew the soon-to-expire Proposition 123, which provides about $300 million a year for schools from the state land trust.

The money then would be earmarked for teacher pay raises rather than general school expenses.

How likely are cuts in an election year?

Gress says the state would replace the $300 million currently supplied with state general fund revenues so the schools don’t lose any money. That backfill agreement already exists in the state’s current three-year budget plan — though, of course, the Legislature isn’t obligated until the time comes to spend that money.

Though the state is facing a projected $850 million shortfall this year and next — courtesy of a state income tax cut, a runaway school voucher program and this year’s $2.5 billion shopping spree that exhausted the state surplus — Gress predicts we’ll be back in the black by fiscal 2026, when the backfill funding would kick in.

Opponents, meanwhile, say the plan would lead to deep school funding cuts given triggers that allow for reduced spending in the event the K-12 budget accounts for more than 49% of the general fund. That’s something legislative budget analysts have said could happen in fiscal 2026.

Gress, who previously was Gov. Doug Ducey’s budget director, dismisses that as “highly unlikely.”

“Even if the trigger could be pulled in fiscal year 2026, the majority of the Legislature and the governor would have to sign off on that,” he told me.

That doesn’t seem likely when they’re all up for reelection that year.

Arizona has a real teacher shortage

What does seem likely is that if Arizona doesn’t do something, we’re soon going to be sending little Mateo and Emma into empty classrooms. (Or more likely, overloaded classrooms devoid of experienced teachers.)

Right now, we spend tens of millions every year to support aspiring teachers, only to see 40% of them walk out the door during their first four years, according to state Department of Education.

By year nine, 63% are gone.

The Republicans’ plan would provide an extra $4,000 a year to teachers, increasing average pay to roughly $60,000 a year.

I’m guessing teachers would be OK with that.

Some education groups already hate it

Yet here is the Arizona Education Association, the union that represents them, giving the proposal the stink eye.

“Just like classroom teachers, our education support professionals are seriously underpaid, leading to shortages that impact our students every day,” said the group, which has not yet taken a position on the bill. “The people who open our schools in the morning, and who close our schools each night, deserve to be included in any proposed raise.”

They do deserve it. They just won’t get it. Republicans are still furious that a previous 20% pay hike intended for teachers amounted to only 16% once school boards got done divvying up the funds.

Ski passes? Ninja lessons? What do school vouchers pay for?

And here is Save Our Schools Arizona, opposing the proposal even before the bill is written, calling it “the same old smoke and mirrors.”

And here is the committee to elect Democratic lawmakers, gnashing their teeth over the fact that those wily Republicans want to raise teacher pay in an election year ... oh, the unfairness of it all.

“Arizona Republicans have held control of the state for decades — and as a result — the teacher retention crisis has spiraled out of control,” Elsa O’Callaghan, executive director of the Democrats’ campaign committee, said in a statement issued on Tuesday. “Now, one year before control of the legislature slips through their fingers — they are deciding to act.”

What's the (realistic) alternative?

You almost get the feeling Democrats are against raising teacher pay on Republicans’ watch.

Meanwhile, Democratic Gov. Katie Hobbs — who likely had her own ideas for how to spend future Proposition 123 funds — is silent. Then again, her thoughts don’t much matter because the Republicans can bypass her and send their proposal directly to the ballot.

Republicans have made a smart move here. They propose raising teacher pay while marketing themselves as pro-public education, just in time for a crucial election that will determine who controls the Legislature come 2025.

Never mind that it is their policies and priorities that have led to the dismal pay and prompted the teacher exodus.

The Republicans’ plan isn’t perfect — or enough, really, to make up for decades of neglect.

But it just might be doable, and that is something, given a Legislature that has hardly been a friend to public education over the years.

For those who oppose this proposal out of hand, even as teachers are fleeing our classrooms, I’d ask this:

What is the (realistic) alternative?

Reach Roberts at laurie.roberts@arizonarepublic.com. Follow her on X, formerly Twitter, at @LaurieRoberts or on Threads at @laurierobertsaz.

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This article originally appeared on Arizona Republic: Arizona teacher pay plan has Democrats gnashing their teeth