American leaders must understand Russia's war with Ukraine is a threat to our security

It was supposed to take three days.

Western intelligence agencies, warily watching a massive Russian military buildup on the borders of Ukraine for the second winter in as many years, were virtually unanimous in their 2022 assessments. The Russian military would control Ukraine in three days.

As the war passes its 430^th day, Ukraine remains. Bolstered by the most significant Western strategic unification since World War II, Ukraine has managed not only to remain, but to inflict what one British intelligence officer described as “World War One levels of attrition” on invading Russian forces.

Ukraine can win this war: Putin's war is driven by his fears of Russia's decline. That gives Ukraine a path to victory.

To say that this invasion has been the most significant geopolitical event since the end of the Cold War may be an understatement. Policy makers across Europe understand this all too well, almost universally echoing the importance of this moment in time. Francois Delattre, the French ambassador to Germany, perhaps sums it up best with a recent comment to The New York Times in which he says, “The war has sent Europeans back to basics, to questions of war and peace and our values.”

The world is watching what's happening in Ukraine

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz has commented with similar gravity, using the word “zeitenwende,” meaning epochal turning point, to describe his country’s strategic reassessment of the importance of military hard power in light of the Ukraine war.

Europe is not the only party watching closely. China studies the Russian successes and failures with rapt attention, understanding that this is a tectonic geopolitical moment. As reported recently by Reuters, more than 100 articles so far, published in 20 journals throughout the Chinese military intelligence apparatus, discuss lessons learned and applications to China’s own military and strategic goals. They know that, as goes Russia’s invasion, so too may go any designs China has on Taiwan.

Florida governor and presidential hopeful Ron DeSantis, meanwhile, does not appear to share the world’s concern. His recent comments have described Russia’s invasion as a “territorial dispute,” saying recently that, “We cannot prioritize intervention in an escalating foreign war over the defense of our own homeland.”

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Such a viewpoint, which polls say many Americans support, reflects an alarming lack of complete understanding about the stakes at play.

Finland and Sweden understand the stakes. Prior to the invasion, 20% of Finland’s population was interested in joining NATO. Weeks after Russian tanks rolled into Ukraine, support jumped to 70%. Both countries understand that, for Putin, this is not a territorial dispute. This is, in Putin’s own words, an existential fight for Russia’s future.

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Finland recently joined NATO and Sweden is applying for membership. They understand what many analysts have concluded, which is that if Russia succeeds in Ukraine, that it may only be a matter of time before Putin tries to plug one of the four geographic “Achilles heels” remaining in Russian territorial defense. One is the Sulwaki gap in Lithuania, the other is the Bessarabian gap in Moldova. An invasion of Lithuania would trigger an Article 5 NATO response, costing the United States far more than it currently sends to Ukraine.

Putin knows Russia is running out of time

Lithuianian aid to Ukraine is a stark reflection of this reality. In terms of GDP percentage, their 0.65% of GDP donated outpaces the 0.37% provided by the U.S. and comes in third behind Latvia’s 0.98% and Estonia’s 1.07%. All three top donors share a border with either Russia or Belarus.

For the Russians, these geographic gaps represent the only way to guarantee their physical safety from an invading land force. Ukraine is seen as a valuable stepping-stone on the way to this strategic goal, and Russia is running out of time to make it happen.

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Putin knows this, which is why despite being in the midst of a demographic crisis that finds his country’s birth rate at 1.5% and his population lower than it was when the Soviet Union fell in 1991, he doubled down on his invasion and ordered the mobilization of 300,000 men. This decision, postponed until it was past due from a military perspective and full of domestic political costs, underscores the importance Putin places on success in Ukraine. It is why, despite 200,000 casualties and the loss of roughly half his main battle tank fleet, Putin continues his invasion. For Putin, this is not a territorial dispute. It is a zero-sum game.

Understanding this is crucial in the approach the United States takes to both its own security and the security of the world order it has been the backbone of since 1945. To misunderstand it, or to take half measures to address it, could cost more than the United States is already giving. America tried to be isolationist before 1917. Two World Wars was the cost to learn the lesson that, if you don’t support your friends, eventually you’ll have to go rescue them. Ron DeSantis, and all Americans, ignore this lesson to our possible detriment.

AJ Morris, a Jackson, Tennessee native, is a captain in the United States Army. This is strictly his opinion and does not represent the views of the U.S. Department of Defense.

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This article originally appeared on Nashville Tennessean: Russia's Ukraine war threatens US security: Don't forget the stakes