American military analyst predicts Russia’s defeat and Ukraine’s victory in 2024
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If the war is concluded under conditions similar to the current situation, it will not be peace but a period of rearmament before further conflict, said Michael Kofman from the U.S. Center for Naval Analyses.
Achieving the Kremlin's initial goals, especially capturing Donbas, is now unattainable for Russia. If Ukraine and the West utilize the coming year to address supply and reserve issues, it will provide the Ukrainian Armed Forces with a military advantage.
"Russia's defeat is intertwined with Ukraine's victory,” said Kofman.
“Russia can be defeated because its minimal political goals are the seizure of Donbas. It's hard to imagine how, with the current state of its forces, it can achieve this. It won't be able to attain the goals it had at the beginning of the war.”
If the war concludes under conditions similar to the current situation, where a portion of Ukrainian territory is occupied, it will lead to a period of rearmament, resulting in the prolonged continuation of the war. This period would predominantly favor Russia rather than Ukraine because Ukraine depends on Western support, which has been delayed throughout. In the event of a conditional ceasefire, the West would likely consider the matter frozen.
Ukraine can rebuild its strength and, together with the West, resolve existing issues to achieve military success in 2024.
"If this year is dedicated to restoring military potential, mobilizing society, establishing mass production of weaponry in Ukraine, solving reserve and training issues, then Ukraine has the opportunity to gain military superiority for success on the battlefield.”
The key challenge for Ukraine lies in changing its strategy and finding a new approach to military actions in the coming year and 2025, preferably in collaboration with the West. Support and resources need to be ensured from the West.
"I see certain problems in unity of effort that also need to be addressed," concluded the analyst.
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Read the original article on The New Voice of Ukraine
