Americans for Prosperity's Nikki Haley endorsement could be ‘game changer,’ strategist says

The recent endorsement of Nikki Haley by a national conservative grassroots network could give a significant boost to Haley's ability to lock in support and turn out voters in the final weeks before the Iowa Caucuses, Republican strategists say.

Americans for Prosperity Action, the political arm of the national organization founded by conservative billionaire Charles Koch, announced its endorsement of Haley on Nov. 28. The group has made clear that it wants Republicans to "turn the page" from former President Donald Trump.

Americans for Prosperity Action has been active in Iowa for more than a decade. The conservative group has nine fulltime paid staffers in the state and employs a network of dozens of door-knockers.

Jimmy Centers, an Iowa-based Republican strategist who has not endorsed a candidate, called the group's endorsement "a game changer" for Haley.

"I think the Americans for Prosperity endorsement of Nikki Haley represents the cavalry coming for her in Iowa and other early states," Centers said.

The endorsement comes as polls show Haley, a former United Nations ambassador and South Carolina governor, has risen to challenge Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis for second place in Iowa, although both trail former President Donald Trump.

More: Nikki Haley is attracting growing support from independent voters. Can she make them stick?

In an October Des Moines Register/NBC News/Mediacom Iowa Poll, Haley and DeSantis were tied at 16%, while Trump led with 43%.

In a statement, Haley said she was honored to have the group's endorsement.

"AFP Action’s members know that there is too much at stake in this election to sit on the sidelines," Haley said. "This is a choice between freedom and socialism, individual liberty and big government, fiscal responsibility and spiraling debt. We have a country to save, and I’m grateful to have AFP Action by our side."

Centers said Haley has momentum from noteworthy moments on the campaign trail and the national debate stage but didn't have the organization to take advantage of that interest and translate it into concrete support in the caucuses.

"The biggest disadvantage she had was a lack of ground game organizationally," Centers said. "The Never Back Down team for Gov. DeSantis has been out with door-knockers for months. President Trump’s team is very well organized. She just didn’t have that."

More: Where are DeSantis, Trump, Haley? Follow them on our 2024 Iowa Caucuses Candidate Tracker

With 300,000 doors knocked, Americans for Prosperity brings wealth of data in support of Nikki Haley

Drew Klein, state director for Americans for Prosperity and a senior adviser to Americans for Prosperity Action, said many of the organization's nine Iowa-based staffers have worked in the state for years.

The organization has already knocked on 300,000 doors in Iowa this year, Klein said.

"In a given week we’ve got probably 100 people around the state that are out knocking on doors talking to folks," Klein said. "And that’s not something we’re flipping the switch on now. Quite frankly, that’s something that we’ve been doing all year to help us get to this point."

Klein said Americans for Prosperity Action, which operates in states around the country, is already doing the same organizing in other early-voting states, including New Hampshire and South Carolina, and several Super Tuesday states.

More: Nikki Haley unveils dozens of Iowa endorsers after another post-presidential debate boost

That work has involved asking Iowans questions such as what issues are important to them as they prepare to caucus, who they like in the race and how they feel about Trump.

Now the group will shift its efforts to encouraging Iowans to caucus for Haley and demystifying the caucus process for first-time caucusgoers.

Klein said the organization finds face-to-face conversations more effective at persuading undecided voters than TV ads or direct mail, although the group's endorsement will include advertising for Haley as well.

"We always have viewed door knocking and canvassing, talking directly to voters, as our comparative advantage when it comes to whatever political contest it is that we’re focused on at the time," he said.

AFP endorsement is 'a missing puzzle piece' for Haley, whose operation lags DeSantis, Trump

Haley has been slower in building out her campaign infrastructure in Iowa than Trump and DeSantis. She began her campaign with a lean budget that gradually grew as the year went on.

DeSantis has dozens of staffers on the ground in Iowa, between his campaign and Never Back Down, a super PAC supporting his candidacy. Trump has also improved his organization in Iowa since his first run in 2016.

Never Back Down said it has knocked on 718,000 doors in Iowa and has 30 paid staffers in the state, as well as thousands of volunteers.

More: Organizing is key to the Iowa Caucuses. Who has the ground game to take on Trump?

David Kochel, a Republican operative who has worked on multiple Iowa campaigns, said Americans for Prosperity can have a "meaningful" impact in making up the difference for Haley.

"The thing that I think she’s been playing catchup on is organization and ground game where DeSantis has invested heavily through his super PAC," said Kochel, who opposes Trump but is not supporting another candidate. "And I think AFP has years of experience in Iowa with a very effective grassroots operation."

DeSantis had been in the running for the group's endorsement. He has focused his campaign on Iowa, securing endorsements from Gov. Kim Reynolds, dozens of state lawmakers and evangelical leader Bob Vander Plaats, and wrapping up a 99-county tour of Iowa.

Klein acknowledged the group might look like "an outlier" in Iowa by endorsing Haley over DeSantis, but he said the goal of the national organization was to choose a candidate they felt could go on to win the nomination. Haley has polled better than DeSantis in New Hampshire and South Carolina.

Not everyone associated with Americans for Prosperity agrees Haley is the right choice.

NBC News reported that Chris Maidment, a director of grassroots operations for the group in New Hampshire, shared on social media that he opposed the endorsement before he said he was fired. Mark Lucas, a former Iowa director for Americans for Prosperity, endorsed Trump on Saturday, NBC News reported.

Two of Americans for Prosperity's Iowa staffers have resigned since the endorsement, Klein said, although they left on good terms.

"Certainly, there are people on my team that would have preferred we had gone a different direction," Klein said. "The vast majority of them understood pretty quickly how we landed where we did."

More: Iowa political leaders are endorsing DeSantis. Trump still thinks the caucuses are a lock

Never Back Down says it has since hired those two staffers.

"Never Back Down is happy to welcome these newest members of our growing team, and we look forward to welcoming others who see Nikki Haley as the establishment rubber stamp she is and want to support a real conservative leader — Gov. Ron DeSantis," said Noah Jennings, Never Back Down's Iowa political director.

Klein said it wasn't as clear how Americans for Prosperity Action could help DeSantis increase his poll numbers, given his already extensive Iowa organization.

"One of the questions that we had to answer is, with parallel grassroots operations already supporting Gov. DeSantis, where were we going to make a marginal difference that could have changed his kind of stagnant stance in the race and compelled him to a strong finish in Iowa?"

The organization can have more of an impact in boosting Haley, he said.

"Our grassroots infrastructure fills a need I think in that operation and to put it candidly I think is a missing puzzle piece that’s going to continue to help drive the momentum that she’s already experiencing, again, not just in Iowa but across the country and throughout those early presidential states."

Since losing out on AFP Action's endorsement, DeSantis' team has attacked the group as an "establishment" organization lining up behind a candidate who can't beat Trump.

"Every dollar spent on Nikki Haley's candidacy should be reported as an in-kind to the Trump campaign," Andrew Romeo, DeSantis' communications director, wrote on social media. "No one has a stronger record of beating the establishment than Ron DeSantis, and this time will be no different."

Haley needs to keep 'doing what she's doing' to be successful, strategist says

Kochel praised the way Haley has run her campaign, saying she was smart to hold back resources early in the race, when fewer voters were paying attention.

"The reason most people drop out of campaigns is because they run out of money, and they did a very good job of husbanding their resources," he said. "And I assume that comes from the candidate and how she wanted to approach the campaign."

More recently, Haley's campaign announced a $10 million ad campaign in Iowa and New Hampshire.

The campaign released its first ad Friday, focused on Haley's foreign policy credentials as U.N. ambassador.

“Today, China, Russia, and Iran are advancing. There’s chaos in our streets and college campuses. Our security is threatened at home and abroad. It’s time for a new generation of conservative leadership,” Haley says in the ad, which is running in Iowa and New Hampshire.

Centers said the key for Haley is to continue her campaign's momentum in the final weeks until the caucuses as she seeks to overtake DeSantis and become the clear alternative to Trump.

"If she continues doing what she’s doing right now — being accessible at town halls, sharing her core convictions, taking questions and then having great debate performances — that coupled with an activation of the grassroots and organizationally from AFP, that could be enough to put her over the top in terms of taking the second-place mantle here in Iowa," he said.

Editor's note: This story has been updated to reflect current data on the Iowa operations of Americans for Prosperity and Never Back Down.

Stephen Gruber-Miller covers the Iowa Statehouse and politics for the Register. He can be reached by email at sgrubermil@registermedia.com or by phone at 515-284-8169. Follow him on Twitter at @sgrubermiller.

This article originally appeared on Des Moines Register: How Americans for Prosperity's endorsement could boost Nikki Haley