Amid continued economic growth, Polk unemployment higher

The unemployment rate in Polk County was 3.1% in March, according to a release from Florida’s Department of Economic Opportunity.

That makes the region's March unemployment rate 0.4% higher than Florida’s unemployment rate of 2.7%, but still 2.8% lower than the region's year ago rate of 5.9%, the release said.

Previously: February job figures show Polk County still ahead of Florida in many job categories

'Hidden workforce': Amid labor shortage, many Polk companies reach out to disabled workers

The labor force, which also includes workers actively seeking jobs, contained 335,561 workers, rising by 10,773 (3.3%) workers over the year. There were 10,562 unemployed residents in Polk County.

Local economist James Farrell, and associate professor of finance and economics, said, “while jobs gains are always welcome, the wages are not likely to keep up with the pace of inflation and it seems unlikely that the Federal Reserve will be able to pull off a soft-landing to ease back inflation without causing at least a short-lived recession.”

The population growth in Polk County and most of Florida is a double-edged sword, he said.

“In the long-run our local economy will benefit from the additional demand for goods and services brought on by having more people, however, in the short-run, with the logistical strains causing shortages of some goods, we will continue to experience quickly rising prices and significant labor shortages in service sectors,” Farrell said.

Economic impact on jobs

The latest Consumer Price Index increased 1.2 percent in March on a seasonally adjusted basis after rising 0.8 percent in February, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported.

Over the last 12 months, the index of pricing for consumer goods 8.5% before seasonal adjustment, the BLS said. That was the largest 12-month increase since the period ending December 1981.

Of all the consumer items, the food and energy index rose 6.5%, the largest 12-month change since the period ending August 1982. The energy index rose 32% over the last year, and the food index increased 8.8%, the largest 12-month increase since the period ending May 1981.

Job cuts: Stryker says 88 jobs to be eliminated in May, part of previously announced layoff schedule

The price of a gallon of gas rose 18.3% in March and accounted for over half of the all items tracked by the agency. Food also rose 1% and the food at home index rose 1.5%.

By contrast, the consumer index for used cars and trucks fell 3.8% over the month.

At the University of Florida, economist Sean Snaith, director of the Institute of Economic Forecasting, cautioned that inflation could have a negative impact on the economy in the future.

“That is the current issue, and the Fed needs to get on the ball and that is going to be one of the biggest threats to the economy,” he said.

Commuters

According to Gary Ralston, a managing member and owner at SVN Saunders Ralston Dantzler Real Estate in Lakeland, another issue which impacts the local economy is called labor shed.

In the latest survey, there are 324,999 total workers who live in Polk County but many commute to jobs outside the county because there are fewer workers employed in the county at 264,800.

“This difference, 60,199, is an indication of a Labor Shed issue,” Ralston said. “The upside is that there is a meaningful available work force; people who live in Polk and already have a job could be good employees for Polk companies and reduce commuting and the resulting traffic issues.”

Further, the number of workers employed in March rose to 19,376 people compared to March of last year, an indication “the local economy continues to grow,” he said.

The situation elsewhere

Polk non-farm employment was 263,800 which is 4.7% higher than March 2021, but 1,400 below the December peak of 265,200.

Retail trade jobs which are about 12.6% of Polk jobs were up 2,500 year over year. And transportation, warehousing and utilities industries, which provide 12.8% of Polk jobs were up 2,000 year over year.

“It is interesting to note that both were slightly down from Feb 2022,” Ralston said.

Professional and business services at 37,400 workers and education and health services at 37,400, which are both about 14.1% of Polk jobs were mostly unchanged month over month but up 5.6% over last year.

Leisure and Hospitality, at 26,000, which includes accommodation and restaurants accounts for about 9.8% of Polk jobs and continue to improve - adding 3,100 jobs over the past year.

Meanwhile: Publix makes Fortune’s list of 100 Best Companies to Work For

Other job category data includes: information (+10.5%); trade, transportation, and utilities (+6.6%); other services (+6.1%); and education and health services industries (+5.6%) grew faster in the metro area than statewide over the year.

Regarding the double-digit growth in the information category, Snaith said, “This is a sector that has been besieged with job losses for a long time and primarily in traditional publishing, but it also includes software and higher tech sectors and I think that is where you’re seeing this growth now taking place.”

The sector saw the rollout of 5G technology and there is still media content being produced, he said.

“We’re at the point that the retractions have slowed, and the contractions have stopped (in publishing); the growth is coming from these higher tech growth elements,” Snaith said.

Jobs were lost since last year in mining, logging, and construction (-700 jobs) and government (-400 jobs) industries.

The City Manager in Lakeland said in February that baby boomers generation government workers were retiring at numbers higher than they could be replaced.

Snaith added the private sector typically can adjust to changes such as generational retirements faster than the public sector.

The industries gaining in jobs over the year were trade, transportation, and utilities (+4,900 jobs); leisure and hospitality (+3,100 jobs); professional and business services (+2,000 jobs); education and health services (+2,000 jobs); other services (+400 jobs); information (+200 jobs); financial activities (+200 jobs); and manufacturing (+100 jobs).

The Lakeland-Winter Haven MSA had the second fastest annual job growth rate compared to all the metro areas in the state in education and health services (+5.6%) last month, the DEO release said.

State employment figures

Florida’s March employment data included a decline of the unemployment rate and job growth in March, a DEO press release issued Friday said.

During March, Florida added 4,500 manufacturing jobs compared to February, representing the largest single month of growth for manufacturers since May 2020.

The data showed that Florida’s unemployment rate has remained below the national rate for 16 consecutive months while trending downward or holding steady for 20 consecutive months.

In March, the state’s unemployment rate decreased by 2.2% compared to a year ago to land at 3.2%, which is below the national rate. Florida’s private sector job growth has also exceeded the U.S. growth for 12 consecutive months since April 2021.

“Industries like manufacturing continue to see growth because Florida prioritizes workforce development and expanding opportunities for businesses and families in our state.” said Gov. Ron DeSantis.

Retirement: Lakeland to pay out $2 million in bonuses to retirees

The DEO Secretary Dane Eagle said, “DEO is committed to supporting the Governor’s efforts and the state’s growth by connecting communities, businesses, and families to the resources they need to thrive.”

The state’s total private sector employment increased by 496,600 (+6.5%) over the year this March, and that is 1.5% faster than the national growth rate of 5 percent.

In March 2022, Florida’s labor force grew by 3.2% (325,000) over the year and grew by 42,000 (+0.4%) over the month. As of March, Florida employers have added jobs for 23 consecutive months since May 2020.

The statewide tally estimated nearly 510,000 openings on online job postings.

U.S. Job data

Unemployment rates were lower in March in 37 states and stable in 13 states and

the District of Columbia, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics said on Friday.

All 50 states and the District had jobless rate decreases from a year earlier.

The national unemployment rate, 3.6 percent, declined by 0.2 percentage point

over the month and was 2.4 points lower than in March 2021, the BLS release said.

Non-farm payroll employment increased in 10 states and was essentially unchanged

in 40 states and the District of Columbia in March 2022. Over the year, nonfarm

payroll employment increased in 49 states and the District and was essentially

unchanged in one state.

Nebraska and Utah had the lowest jobless rates in March, 2.0 percent each.

The next lowest rates were in Indiana, 2.2 percent, and Montana, 2.3 percent.

The rates in these four states set new series lows, as did the rates in the

eight other states

The District of Columbia had the highest unemployment rate, 6.0 percent, followed by New Mexico, 5.3 percent. In total, 15 states had unemployment rates lower than the U.S. figure of 3.6 percent, 13 states and the District of Columbia had higher rates, and 22 states had rates that were not appreciably different from that of the nation.

Paul Nutcher covers business and industry for The Ledger. He can be reached at pnutcher@gannett.com

This article originally appeared on The Ledger: Polk County unemployment rate higher than rest of Florida