Analysis: Biden returns to NH today with a big win, big challenges

Nov. 16—Welcome back to New Hampshire, President Biden.

It's been a long 21 months since you were here last, and a lot has happened — some good, some not so much.

You're coming back on a high: Many thought you wouldn't be able to tamp down the tribal warfare in the U.S. House long enough to get members to focus on passing a $1.2 trillion infrastructure bill.

For the better part of five years — during his campaign and term — former President Donald Trump talked endlessly about the topic. Trump never got to first base on Capitol Hill, even after his own party was in complete control for two years.

"This bill is proof that when we come together, put aside our differences, and compromise, we can deliver results for the American people," said U.S. Sen. Maggie Hassan, who attended the signing ceremony Monday along with fellow Democrat Sen. Jeanne Shaheen.

Spending more money on roads, bridges, water, sewer systems, even broadband, used to be a layup in Washington. As you know, POTUS, everything is a chore now.

When you were here last, you rushed out of here hours before the first-in-the-nation primary votes came in and confirmed a deflating fifth-place finish.

New Hampshire residents have always been hospitable to you, and in the past you've returned the attention.

Remember when you were President Obama's second-in-command?

In the 2012-16 window, you came to New Hampshire more than a half-dozen times, spreading White House good cheer while helping elect plenty of state Democrats along the way.

Many observers thought those IOUs would be worth more than they ultimately were.

Three races without a win

The 2020 primary marked your third presidential campaign not being able to sniff a win in New Hampshire.

Of course, you ended up looking like the genius, making a South Carolina primary your last stand and pulling off one of the most stunning comebacks in modern American political history.

It must have been sweet to beat Trump here last November, and not by the tiny margin Hillary Clinton did in 2016, which invited Trump to first start chirping about "voter fraud."

Since then, it's been a bumpy ride.

Some conclude Trump became a casualty of the pandemic. Had COVID-19 never happened, Trump might have had a better shot at winning a second term in the midst of a continued economic recovery.

We'll never know, but the virus hasn't done you a lot of favors either.

You mobilized Congress to pass record amounts of federal relief and presided over an aggressive rollout of the vaccine created during the Trump administration. There were real hopes the worst of this pandemic was behind us.

But the delta variant had other ideas.

Now you return to a state that months ago had COVID under control, but lately has had the second-highest rate of new cases in the U.S.

Hotbed of resistance

New Hampshire's "Live Free or Die" culture helped make it Ground Zero for open resistance to forcing people to get the shot.

It was the first state in the country during this pandemic to reject federal immunization grants.

Last week, the Executive Council reversed itself, but only after offering a nonbinding resolution hostile to your vaccine mandates.

Economically, we're doing better than most — in the Top 10 for low unemployment and high per capita family income — yet families here have struggled.

Nobody wants to look at their receipt after shopping for groceries, thanks to the highest inflation rate in 30 years. Now they're blaming you for giving Americans the most expensive Thanksgiving dinner ever.

Everyone notices store shelves are looking more picked over. We're not back to the desperate run on toilet paper that we endured during the spring of 2020, but thanks to the supply chain delays, there seems to be a different item every week that consumers can't find.

What was already a chronic workforce shortage has become a full-blown crisis.

Some employees sent home during COVID have found it hard to return, first due to remote schooling for their children and then with difficulty getting or keeping child care.

New Hampshire ended the federally offered extra unemployment benefit checks early last June. After a small spurt, that proved to do little to get people back to work.

All this comes at a time of year when retailers are stressed out about how to staff up for the holidays.

This would explain why you are deeply underwater when it comes to the Right Direction/Wrong Track question in every independent poll.

New Hampshire voters are angry.

"Spending over $1 trillion (on infrastructure) will only make that worse," said Greg Moore, state director of the fiscally conservative Americans for Prosperity.

"This move was senseless and completely out of touch with reality, making it clear that these games in Washington must come to an end."

On the bright side

But there's some good news.

Politically, New Hampshire isn't Florida or Texas — or Virginia, for that matter.

While state Democratic parties have been playing defense in most locales, the New Hampshire Democratic Party has been in recovery mode, winning the first red-to-blue special election legislative seat in the country and following it up with two more victories.

Earlier this month, voters elected 11 Democrats to run the state's 13 cities. While those elections are nonpartisan, party politics play a big part.

Republicans had their gains as well, taking over Rochester City Hall and rolling up a few aldermanic wins in Nashua that for a while had been looking pretty blue.

Sen. Hassan got her early holiday gift when Gov. Chris Sununu passed on running against her in 2022. It's no slam dunk, but your chances of holding onto that Democratic Senate seat just got a lot better.

But with every splash of sunshine, a little rain may fall.

You'll be speaking in Woodstock, right on the edge of the Second Congressional District.

If GOP legislative leaders have their way, that will change, too.

Their proposed redistricting map would surround Woodstock with a few new 2nd CD towns. Along with dozens of other changes, the map would turn the First Congressional District into a more reliable Republican seat.

What role will the partisan redistricting maps here and in other GOP-led states play as your White House seeks to lock down the votes needed to pass a Build Back Better plan this fall?

We'll soon find out.

The midterm elections are only 51 weeks away.

klandrigan@unionleader.com