Analysis: Ehasz campaign finance suggests 1st District is likely to stay red with Fitzpatrick

In the race for campaign capital, 1st Congressional District candidate Democrat Ashley Ehasz continues to trail incumbent Republican U.S. Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick by a wide margin with 10 weeks to go until Election Day.

No surprise there. After all, incumbency has its benefits.

Fitzpatrick has represented Bucks County and a portion of Montgomery County in the U.S. House for three terms now. It was foreseeable that the candidates' July quarterly Federal Election Commission filings would show Fitzpatrick raising $400,000 to Ehasz's $166,000 and ending the term with more than $1 million in cash on hand to Ehasz's $147,000.

But here's the problem for Ehasz and the Democrats. Her fundraising is also well off the pace of the last three Democrats to lose to Fitzpatrick in a general election — Christina Finello, Scott Wallace and state Sen. Steve Santarsiero. The trio received 43%, 49% and 46% of the vote in their respective races against Fitzpatrick.

Santarsiero, who also chairs the Bucks County Democratic Committee, says the political landscape may be about to shift in Democrats' favor. But there are various reasons why Ehasz is seeing less money. And none of them bodes well for her.

Tale of two Democrats seeking to flip PA-01

The campaign finance reports for Ehasz and Finello yield the fairest comparison.

Santarsiero's fundraising was likely helped by the fact that he was vying for an open seat in 2016, and Wallace lent his campaign $12.7 million of his own money. There's also this: Ehasz and Finello were both suburban women and relative political newcomers, who ran for Congress the year after a U.S. House vote to impeach a sitting President.

Finello's fundraising may have benefitted from her running in a presidential election year. Still, she raised roughly twice as much money as Ehasz in the same quarter two years ago and had more than double the cash on hand heading into August.

In addition to individual contributions, Finello had by then received $5,000 or more from the Elect Democratic Women PAC, PAC to the Future, and the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. Elect Democratic Women is headed by seven sitting congresswomen. PAC to the Future is a Leadership PAC that lists House Speaker Nancy Pelosi's husband Paul as its treasurer. The DCCC, or D-Triple-C, is the official campaign arm of the Democrats in the House of Representatives.

Those three donations totaled just $17,500 but brought Finello something even more valuable — the credibility that comes with public support from friends in high places.

Thus far, the only Political Action Committee contribution Ehasz has received that's exceeded $5,000 is $10,000 from the VoteVets PAC, which has endorsed the U.S. Army veteran and Apache helicopter pilot.

What PAC money tells us in Fitzpatrick-Ehasz race

Ehasz is not listed among the 53 women whose races the Elect Democratic Women PAC is highlighting on its website this cycle. The list includes Pennsylvania incumbents Rep. Chrissy Houlahan, whose 6th District includes Chester County and southeastern Berks County; and Rep. Susan Wild, whose 7th District covers Lehigh County, Northampton County and part of Monroe County.

Similarly, Ehasz isn't one of the DCCC's "Frontline" Pennsylvania candidates. They are Houlahan, Wild and Rep. Matt Cartwright, whose 8th District includes Wayne, Pike and Lackawanna counties as well as portions of Luzerne and Monroe counties. The DCCC is also supporting non-incumbent Chris Deluzio, who is running for the open seat in the 17th District, covering Beaver County and parts of Butler and Allegheny counties. Democrat Conor Lamb holds the seat but isn't seeking reelection.

Where that PAC money is going says more about Democrats' strategy than it does about Ehasz's qualifications or candidacy.

The home page of the DCCC website makes no bones about its plan. It uses the phrase "Protect Our Democratic House Majority" three times at or near the top of the page. Given that midterm elections have traditionally been difficult for the party with the presidency, it makes sense that the DCCC would use its finite resources to play defense in the competitive 6th, 7th and 8th districts, rather than use them to try to flip the 1st District from red to blue.

Red trend in Pennsylvania's 1st District

Fitzpatrick has been in the DCCC's sights for several cycles now. As recently as late January, it still listed the 1st District among its "2021-2022 Districts In Play." In May, committee Chair Sean Patrick Maloney congratulated Ehasz for earning the Democratic nomination while regional press secretary James Singer penned a lengthy essay making "The Case Against Brian Fitzpatrick" that briefly voiced support for Ehasz.

Since then the website has made no mention of Ehasz. Meanwhile recent polling and prognostications show Fitzpatrick has the momentum.

The Cook Political Report, which is the industry standard in election and campaign analysis, last week did not consider the race to be competitive, characterizing it as a "Solid Republican" seat. For the record, Houlahan's district was listed as a "Solid Democrat" seat, Wild's was a "Lean Republican" race, while Cartwright and Diluzio were in "Toss Up" contests.

At FiveThirtyEight.com, which analyzes polls, politics, economics and sports as part of ABC News, rated the 1st District as "Solid Republican" last week, noting that "Fitzpatrick is clearly favored to win." Houlahan was listed as "Solid Democrat", Wild was in a "Toss Up" race, Cartwright and Diluzio were in "Lean Democrat" status.

When asked a series of questions about the race and the DCCC not naming Ehasz one of its "Frontline" candidates, Singer provided this short statement:

"Brian Fitzpatrick remains a target for the DCCC because of his continued capitulation to the MAGA GOP and his votes against lowering prescription drug costs, helping small businesses, and protecting a woman's right to an abortion. We continue to monitor this race as we would any other targeted race."

It's worth remembering that the DCCC left some pundits scratching their heads in January and February 2021 when it rolled out two campaign ads targeting Fitzpatrick just months into his third term.

A spokeswoman called it a "historic early investment" in the seat but observers saw it as a clear signal that the DCCC was all-in on taking down Fitzpatrick in 2022. Either way, the smart money says Ehasz would appreciate those ads running in Bucks County today. That they aren't shows a marked shift in priorities on the part of the DCCC.

Our reporting from 2021:Fitzpatrick faces early attacks by DCCC. Will they impact an election still 2 years out?

Pennsylvania primary:Fitzpatrick beats GOP challenger Alex Entin in 1st district race

The fundamentals in the district haven't over the last two years, said Samuel Chen, an Allentown-based political strategist who founded policy and communications firm The Liddell Group.

"The 1st District went to (Joe) Biden, but in this area of Pennsylvania there are a lot of ticket splitters, so you had a lot of Biden-Fitzpatrick voters," Chen said.

Chen, a veteran of Republican campaigns, said one of the keys to Fitzpatrick's success has been his ability to own the middle, leaving the Democrats in something of a no-win bind.

They can either nominate a progressive in the John Fetterman mold, which Chen said isn't likely to play well in the purple county, or run the sort of moderate who appeals to Fitzpatrick voters, but likely doesn't have his experience, name recognition or fundraising apparatus.

Fitzpatrick seems likely to retain the seat, Chen said, as long has he hasn't made Trump voters so angry that they stay home on Election Day.

Ehasz a bolt out of the blue?

In addition to Ehasz's hard work and tireless campaigning, Santarsiero pointed to Tuesday night's special election win by Democrat Patrick Ryan in New York's 19th Congressional District as reason not to count her out. Ryan beat favored Republican Marcus Molinaro by making abortion access the center of his campaign in the Hudson Valley/Catskills region.

It has been two months since the U.S. Supreme Court's Dobbs v. Jackson Women's Health Organization overturned Roe v. Wade, which struck down a Texas law that criminalized abortion in 1973, and gave states the job of determining the legality and availability of abortions.

"The result in the 19th District in New York shows the landscape has shifted and it gives her a good chance," Santarsiero said Wednesday morning. "This is an issue of personal freedom and that really resonates."

Ehasz:Reproductive freedom is not just a woman’s issue, it’s a family issue

More:Democrat Ashley Ehasz announces bid for PA's 1st Congressional District seat

More:Fitzpatrick is proud of his bipartisan record, but does it leave him vulnerable in 2022?

Ehasz has been endorsed by NARAL Pro-Choice America and the political action committee has donated $1,000 to her campaign. She's frequently taken to Twitter to hammer Fitzpatrick's record on women's reproductive rights and it's clear the significance of Ryan's victory in New York isn't lost on her.

"The victory in NY-19 proves that choice is on the ballot this year, especially in swing districts," she tweeted on Wednesday.

Santarsiero said 10 weeks is plenty of time for a "bombshell" like the Dobbs decision to move the needle toward Ehasz and her fellow Democrats.

"It can upend the approach (nationally)," he said. "If the incumbents (supported by the DCCC) start to poll well, that could free up resources for other races."

Time will tell. So will the next quarterly campaign finance report. It's due to the Federal Election Commission in mid-October.

This article originally appeared on Bucks County Courier Times: Analysis: Campaign finance reports suggest PA's 1st District may stay red