Analysis: All feels lost for Ohio State football, but a playoff berth remains plausible

If you awoke Sunday in a haze, thinking that what you saw Saturday against Michigan was just a bad dream, sorry.

It happened.

For the second straight year, the Wolverines dominated Ohio State in the second half for a lopsided win. The Buckeyes’ 45-23 loss ended their undefeated season and Big Ten title hopes and put to rest the notion that last year’s 42-27 Michigan win in Ann Arbor was an aberration. The rivalry has shifted back in the Wolverines’ favor.

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Ohio State had vowed to get redemption for last year and fully expected to. That made losing, especially the way they did, even more painful.

Afterward, coach Ryan Day was composed but clearly stunned. When he was asked where his team goes from here, he said he was unsure.

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The immediate answer to that question is nowhere. Ohio State will be at home next weekend instead of Indianapolis for the Big Ten championship game. But all is not necessarily lost. As disappointing as Saturday’s performance was, the Buckeyes remain alive for the College Football Playoff.

Georgia and Michigan are locks. Undefeated TCU probably is in unless the Horned Frogs lose badly to Kansas State in the Big 12 title game. USC is in if the Trojans beat Utah in Friday’s Pac-12 championship. The Utes beat USC 43-42 in October.

But if Utah beats USC again, Ohio State would have a good chance for the fourth playoff spot. With Clemson and LSU losing Saturday, the Buckeyes’ top competition would probably be two-loss Alabama. Tuesday’s CFP rankings will be crucial because neither the Buckeyes nor the Crimson Tide plays this weekend.

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If fortune doesn’t favor Ohio State this week, the Buckeyes would head to a New Year’s Six bowl game, probably a return trip to the Rose Bowl.

That answers where the Buckeyes might literally be headed. But in a broader sense, where OSU goes after Saturday’s debacle is less clear.

“We'll figure out what's next,” Day said, “and I don't know exactly what is next right now. But that's life at Ohio State. I certainly know what this game means to everybody. When you lose, it all comes back to me. I'm the head coach, and that's what probably hurts the most.”

Day has won 45 of 50 games as OSU coach, but losing two in a row to Michigan ends his honeymoon. The Buckeyes were undisciplined at key times on Saturday. They committed nine penalties for 91 yards and blew key assignments.

Some of Day’s decisions have come under scrutiny. After a holding call on Donovan Jackson and an unsportsmanlike-conduct penalty on Gee Scott Jr. for head-butting a Michigan player negated a 24-yard gain, Ohio State faced a first-and-35 trailing 24-20 in the third quarter.

“It was crazy,” said quarterback C.J. Stroud . “I’ve never been in a situation like that in football. I thought we fought back to get in decent field position.”

They did.

Ohio State got to fourth-and-5 at the Michigan 43. But Day chose to punt, despite urging from Stroud to go for it. In the first quarter, Day went for it on fourth-and-2 at the Michigan 34 leading 10-3, and Stroud’s pass glanced off tight end Cade Stover’s hands.

“We're always going to be aggressive,” Day said of the third-quarter decision. “But I felt like the right thing to do was to punt.”

The punt resulted in a touchback. Michigan then drove 80 yards in 15 plays for a 31-20 lead. It went downhill from there.

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Ohio State’s high-powered offense produced only one field goal in the second half. The Buckeyes seldom threw deep. The 42-yard touchdown in the second quarter to Marvin Harrison Jr. was one of the exceptions.

Ohio State’s defense, victimized by two big pass plays for touchdowns in the second quarter and another to open the third quarter, allowed Donovan Edwards to seal the game on 75- and 85-yard touchdown runs. It was a humbling game for a defense that coordinator Jim Knowles had been hired to fix.

Asked if the problem was scheme, technique, coaching or personnel, Knowles replied, “All those things you mentioned. You’ve just got to take responsibility. Obviously, the players are hurting much more than me. I’m crushed, but they’re the ones who put their heart and soul into it. They’re the ones I have to be able to look in the eye and talk about all those things you said.”

The program is now at a crossroads. Stroud might have played his last game as a Buckeye. It would be no surprise if he opts out of a non-CFP bowl game.

The idea of leaving Ohio State winless in two starts against Michigan hurt Stroud to the core after the sacrifices he made to win it.

“I stopped living a personal life,” he said. “I let everything go. Sometimes I don’t pick up the phone because I’m locked in watching film. I’m doing anything I can possibly do to win this game. There’s no stone I didn’t turn over to try to win this game.”

If Ohio State doesn’t make the playoff, a large number of Buckeyes might not play in their bowl game. That’s the norm these days. A non-playoff bowl could become a de facto 2023 preseason game, an audition for young players who’ll compete to be starters next year.

That’s not how Ohio State expected to spend the next month. Then again, they certainly didn’t expect what happened Saturday.

Stroud said that he doesn’t believe the loss to Michigan should define this team or season. Perhaps one game shouldn’t supersede the previous 11.

But that’s the weight Ohio State puts on this game, and right now it feels crushing.

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MORE COVERAGE

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This article originally appeared on The Columbus Dispatch: Analysis: Despite devastating loss, Ohio State's CFP hopes are alive