Analysis: Five concerns Florida State football needs to address to ensure a strong finish

Through seven games, this Florida State football season still lacks an obvious narrative.

How this season will be remembered depends on what the Seminoles accomplish in their final five games.

Like last season, they could play well down the stretch. It’s also possible that their three-game losing streak could turn into a collapse. So to inspire optimism about its future as a program, FSU certainly will need to finish strong again.

And there are valid reasons to feel bullish about the Seminoles’ chances.

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Per ESPN’s matchup predictor metric, FSU is projected to defeat four of its last five opponents. The Seminoles also received at least a 60% probability to win each of those games, which are against Georgia Tech (90.9%), Miami (62.5%), Louisiana (85.7%) and Florida (67.4%).

The one exception, Syracuse, projects to have a 61.9% chance of beating FSU on Nov. 12.

Coming off a bye week, the Seminoles (4-3, 2-3 ACC) will first host the struggling Yellow Jackets (3-4, 2-2) in Doak Campbell Stadium at noon Saturday (TV: ACC Network).

“This week will be an opportunity for us to go out there and push to show our best to be able to make a statement of that's who we are and that's what we desire to do in our continued improvement,” FSU head coach Mike Norvell said in his weekly press conference Monday.

Even if the Seminoles finish 3-2, their season likely would be considered a step in the right direction. Not only would they be headed to their first bowl game since 2019. But they also would boast their best regular-season record since going 9-3 in 2016.

Still, FSU needs to address some lingering concerns to ensure a strong finish. Here’s a closer look at them.

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1. Injury bug

FSU will need to have better injury luck for the rest of the season.

Not just because of the Seminoles’ depth concerns at multiple positions. But also because 13 starters already have been sidelined with injuries:

Quarterback Jordan Travis, offensive linemen Robert Scott Jr., Bless Harris and Maurice Smith, running back Treshaun Ward, wide receivers Winston Wright Jr. and Johnny Wilson, tight end Camren McDonald, defensive linemen Jared Verse, Fabien Lovett and Robert Cooper, linebacker Tatum Bethune and cornerback Omarion Cooper.

Other key players – like receiver/running back Ja’Khi Douglas and linebacker Amari Gainer – also missed time with injuries.

Harris went down with an undisclosed injury in the “Week Zero” opener against Duquesne, which will keep him out for the rest of the season. Wright has yet to play in a game since suffering a significant leg injury in a car accident in March.

Lovett and Ward are the only other starters who are still looking to return to game action. While Lovett suffered a lower right leg injury against LSU on Sept. 4, Ward went down with an apparent collarbone injury at NC State on Oct. 8.

Norvell expressed optimism about the prognosis of both players Monday.

“It was good seeing Fabien move around. Very hopeful for what that's going to look like this week,” Norvell said. “You will continue to see with Tre Ward and where that's at as he's progressing throughout this week.”

More on FSU RB Treshaun Ward: Florida State football coach Mike Norvell gives encouraging update on Treshaun Ward, Ja'Khi Douglas

Struggling to stop the run

Once Lovett returns, FSU’s porous run defense is expected to be better.

How much he will help the group improve, though, will be worth monitoring. The Seminoles rank No. 84 nationally in rushing yards allowed per game (157). They also surrendered a 100-yard rusher in four of their six games against FBS competition.

Lovett showed enough last season to earn All-ACC honorable mention recognition. But he only posted a 60.0 run-defense grade, per Pro Football Focus. His 79.9 run-defense grade this season ranks No. 4 on the team, albeit he has a small, 61-snap sample size.

“He gives you a really tough matchup inside,” FSU defensive coordinator Adam Fuller said. “It’s hard to block him with one guy just because he is so strong. He’s strong, but he’s been in the system for three years now. So he plays with the technique necessary to be productive.”

The Seminoles will face three teams – Georgia Tech (No. 85), Miami (No. 96) and Louisiana (No. 99) – that rank outside the top 80 nationally in rushing offense. But Florida and Syracuse come in at No. 16 and No. 44, respectively.

More from FSU vs. Clemson: Analyzing Florida State football's big running day, Pro Football Focus grades vs. Clemson

Red zone woes

The red zone has not been kind to FSU this season.

On both sides of the ball.

The Seminoles come in at No. 99 in red zone defense, allowing a touchdown or field goal across 88% of those opportunities. Their offense has only scored in the red zone 75.8% of the time, which ranks No. 106.

Injuries figured to play a role in why FSU’s defense has struggled in the red zone. Maybe now that the unit is more healthy, they will improve in that area. How much the Seminole offense has struggled in the red zone, though, can’t be excused.

Not when they rank in the top 45 in most offensive statistics, including rushing offense (No. 22), third-down conversion percentage (No. 24), total offense (No. 26), passing yards per completion (No. 27) and passing efficiency (No. 45).

“We have to do a good job in on-field communication with each other,” said offensive coordinator/offensive line coach Alex Atkins on FSU’s red zone woes. “So that comes from the O-line talking to each other, the receivers talking to each other. It can't be a coach presentation.”

Syracuse could be a challenge, ranking No. 14 in red zone defense. But the Seminoles could exploit their other four remaining opponents – Georgia Tech (No. 130), Miami (No. 58), Louisiana (No. 108) and Florida (No. 84) – in the red zone.

More on FSU's red zone struggles: Florida State football looking to improve red zone woes against NC State

Not enough turnovers forced

With only four interceptions and four fumble recoveries on the season, FSU comes in at No. 99 in turnovers gained.

How can the Seminoles be more opportunistic? Perhaps they could help safety Jammie Robinson wreak havoc on a more consistent basis. His four interceptions last season tied for the lead in the ACC and ranked No. 14 in the country. He also tallied two fumble recoveries.

But Robinson only has one forced turnover, an interception, this season.

“We've got to create pressure,” Norvell said. “We've got to disrupt things at the line of scrimmage. We've got to make sure, if we get opportunities on the back end, we take advantage of them, being in the right place, making sure our eyes are where they need to be.

“Then it just comes down to effort, physicality and pursuit.”

More on Jammie Robinson: Safety Jammie Robinson the only Florida State Seminole on Preseason All-ACC team

Learning how to win

Through the first four games, FSU responded well to adversity.

The Seminoles then showed that they are still learning what it takes to win. They have had too many self-inflicted errors – like committing costly penalties and playing poor situational football – during their ongoing losing streak.

Whether FSU will continue to press in key moments remains unclear. The Seminoles have yet to prove that they can play a clean game for 60 minutes against a competent opponent. They also need to prove they can handle the pressure that comes with heightened expectations.

Norvell seemed encouraged about how his team handled the bye week.

“We had a lot of guys that stayed in town and had great treatment sessions,” Norvell said. “I thought that made a statement to just that sense of urgency for improvement and for guys to be the best that they can be as we jump into this week.”

GAME INFORMATION

Who: FSU (4-3, 2-3 ACC) vs. Georgia Tech (3-4, 2-2)

When/where: Saturday, noon; Doak Campbell Stadium

TV/Radio: ACC Network/94.9 FM

Live game updates: www.Tallahassee.com; @CarterKarels on Twitter; @Ehsan_Kassim on Twitter; @jackgwilliams on Twitter; @JimHenryTALLY

Reach Carter Karels at ckarels@gannett.com or follow him on Twitter @CarterKarels. You can also follow our coverage on Facebook (NoleSports) and Instagram (tlhnolesports).

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This article originally appeared on Tallahassee Democrat: FSU football: Five concerns Seminoles need to address to ensure strong finish