Analysis: Grading all 8 49ers draft picks. What’s with all the running back choices?

The 49ers are at a turning point under the Kyle Shanahan and John Lynch regime, as highlighted by the 2021 NFL draft they completed Saturday.

The addition of quarterback Trey Lance, and the trade it took to get him, make him the prize of the offseason and undoubtedly the team’s most important player for the foreseeable future. But other themes came out of Shanahan and Lynch’s latest draft class made up of eight prospects.

First, the running game is due for a significant overhaul. Shanahan drafted a pair of running backs after not drafting one since 2017 and rolling with a slew of former undrafted free agents in recent seasons. The team added a pair of guards to improve depth and potentially upgrade the team’s run blocking along the offensive line, particularly with the player they added in the second round who’s projected to start.

There were also areas the team didn’t address. It was the first time since 2002 the team didn’t invest a draft pick in a receiver. Nor was there a backup tight end to complement George Kittle or an edge rusher to fill in behind Nick Bosa, Dee Ford and Samson Ebukam.

Will that hurt Shahanan and Lynch as they continue to tinker with the roster ahead of this summer’s training camp? Only time will tell. For now, let’s take an early stab at grading each pick even though we won’t know the real value of each player for a couple seasons at least.

Round 1 (pick No. 3): Trey Lance, QB (North Dakota State)

Projecting a new franchise quarterback that played at the FCS level and had only one game in 2020 comes with plenty of risks. But if Shanahan and Lynch are right about Lance, they could go down as historic figures for having the vision to take a chance on the former lightly recruited quarterback who didn’t get any offers to play the position at a power five school.

Shanahan and Lynch invested three first-round picks in Lance because they believe he has the talent to develop into a championship quarterback, and that’s a grand projection for a franchise with Super-Bowl-or-bust expectations. Especially when it took a trade that mortgaged first-round picks through 2023. Lance is going from relative obscurity to becoming one of the most famous athletes in same region Stephen Curry, Joe Montana, Barry Bonds, Jerry Rice and Steve Young made themselves legends.

The early signs suggest Lance might be the right player to invest in. The team believes his personality, work ethic and competitiveness make him a gravitational force to those around him. His athleticism, arm strength and intelligence make him one of the more intriguing quarterback prospects to come around in years given where he played in college. He should be in position to thrive given his new surroundings with an elite play caller, quality supporting cast and time to develop behind Jimmy Garoppolo.

But Lance also poses a boom-or-bust factor. He had just 318 passing attempts in college, the fewest for a quarterback drafted in the first round in 40 years. There are questions about his accuracy and if his running style will translate against NFL competition. Not to mention the recent history surrounding quarterbacks in the first round and the roughly 70% bust rate.

We’ll given Shanahan the benefit of doubt here, especially since he mortgaged the future in an elite talent (and not Mac Jones, which seemed to be the case as recently as last week). Shanahan landed a quarterback that might raise the offense to heights Garoppolo could never reach, and Lance turns 21 next week.

Grade: B+

Round 2 (No. 48): Aaron Banks, G (Notre Dame)

Shanahan has traditionally had guards that tend to be light on their feet like tackles. Having guards with tackle-like athleticism generally allows them to move in space and get to the second level of the defense in Shanahan’s wide zone running game.

Banks (6-5, 325) is not that kind of player.

The 2020 first-team All American looks like a bruising, downhill blocker akin to former 49ers guard Mike Iupati. But his movement skills might be getting overlooked, according to Shanahan.

“You don’t want them small. You just want guys who can move well. So, you’ve be able to move a certain way to kind of, as I say, ‘be in the club’ for us to want you but once you can move that certain way, we want the biggest guy possible,” Shanahan said.

Banks was signed to shore up the right guard spot that saw four starters in 2020. He brings durability having started 31 straight games to finish his career with the Irish, and he’ll rejoin his former college teammate on the right side of the line, tackle Mike McGlinchey.

Banks should also provide an upgrade in pass protection. He didn’t allow a sack in 2020, according to Pro Football Focus. That’s good news for a guy that will be regularly matched up against Aaron Donald in key divisional games versus the Rams.

If there’s a knock, it might be value. Some believe Banks was third-round prospect and guards generally aren’t prioritized early in the draft. The 49ers also bypassed developmental centers, like Josh Myers and Creed Humphrey, who could play guard before Alex Mack inevitably retires.

But that won’t matter much if Banks turns out to be a high-level starter from the jump. He’ll turn 24 just before the season starts and appeared in 31 straight games to end his college career. Durability was a clear emphasis in this draft class.

Grade: B

Round 3 (No. 88): Trey Sermon, RB (Ohio State)

This could be looked at a few different ways. Shanahan and position coach, Bobby Turner, have done well with undrafted running backs in recent years while the 49ers maintained one of the league’s best rushing attacks. It took trading away a pair of fourth-round picks to move up for Sermon.

The former Buckeye and Oklahoma Sooner (he graduated from Oklahoma in three years allowing him to transfer to Ohio State without taking a year off) is considered a perfect fit for Shanahan’s offense. He’s a one-cut runner with plenty of burst and elusiveness. The knock is a lack of elite speed, but Raheem Mostert and fellow rookie Elijah Mitchell have the burners to make up for it.

The same knock that applied to the Banks pick applies here. The 49ers had bigger needs at more premium positions, like cornerback, edge rusher and receiver, but instead opted for a running back.

On the other hand, the running game is the foundation for Shanahan’s offense and it could be even more prevalent if Lance ends up starting games. It’s clear Shanahan wants as much depth at the position as possible after ankle injuries in 2020 hampered Mostert and Jeff Wilson Jr., who are both unsigned after the coming season. Sermon could lead the 49ers in carries, or he could be relegated to a depth role while Mostert remains atop the depth chart.

Grade: C+ (mostly for the running back value argument)

Round 3 (No. 102): Ambry Thomas, CB (Michigan)

Cornerback was arguably the team’s most pressing need heading into the draft. Addressing it with an athletic player of Thomas’ ilk makes plenty of sense, though the 49ers could have addressed it sooner with the slot where Banks’ was taken and found a guard later.

Thomas (6-0, 191), who opted out of 2020, at his pro day ran a 4.40-second 40-yard dash with a 38-inch broad jump and 122-inch broad jump. He allowed a 56% completion rate when targeted and made three interceptions in 13 games in 2019. The 49ers need bodies at cornerback with Ahkello Witherspoon a member of the Seattle Seahawks and Richard Sherman still without a team.

Thomas needs seasoning but could develop into a starter down the road, which might make him a reach in Round 3. For now, expect him to have a backup and special teams role as a rookie while Jason Verrett plays on a one-year contract.

Grade: B

Round 5 (No. 155): Jaylon Moore, OL (Western Michigan)

The 49ers plan on Moore moving from tackle to guard, where he would compete with Daniel Brunskill, Coltom McKivitz, Justin Skule and Tom Compton for playing time. And perhaps the team thinks he could be an eventual replacement for starting left guard Laken Tomlinson, who is signed through 2022.

Perhaps San Francisco would like to insert Moore on his rookie contract into the starting lineup rather than pay Tomlinson again. But the issue, again, is the 49ers passed on more pressing positions to add to a spot where they have plenty of bodies. A slot receiver or backup tight end might have been a better use for this capital than another guard. A good thing about Moore: he finished his career with 32 straight starts, so durability isn’t a concern.

Grade: C+

Round 5 (No. 172): Deommodore Lenoir, DB (Oregon)

Lenoir is going to play slot cornerback but he has the ability to stay outside, Shanahan said Saturday. That gives the 49ers a potential long-term slot option with K’Waun Williams signed through the 2021 season. Lenoir started 34 games to end his Oregon career and appeared 47 total (again, durability).

The Los Angeles native is close family friends with Richard Sherman and will likely lean on the future Hall of Famer for advice. But whether he gets on the field much in 2021 could depend on Williams’ health, which indicates Lenoir might not be asked to have a prominent role until 2022.

Grade: B

Round 5 (No. 180): Talanoa Hufanga, S/LB (USC)

Hufanga might be the most interesting prospect of the team’s fifth-round picks. He played strong safety near the line of scrimmage for the Trojans and made plays. He led the team four interceptions, five pass breakups and two forced fumbles in 2020 while being named the Pat Tillman Defensive Player of the Year for the Pac-12.

Hufanga’s tape is impressive and Shanahan called him, an “old-school bad ass.” But he’s a touch undersized for a strong safety at 6-0 and 199 pounds and his 4.63 in the 40 might have caused his stock to drop. The 49ers envision him as a hybrid linebacker player, but he might take some time to get there.

Expect him to be core special teamer and potential fan favorite early on. He’s known for his character and inspiring personality. It wouldn’t at all be surprising if Hufanga becomes the next fifth-round gem unearthed by the personnel staff.

Grade: A-

Round 6 (No. 194): Elijah Mitchell, RB (Louisiana)

Remember how Sermon doesn’t have great speed? Well Mitchell sure does. He was clocked at 4.33 at his pro day, putting him right up there with Mostert as the team’s fastest running back. Mitchell is an athletic dynamo, which could make him a sneaky contributor as soon as this season.

It will be found money if Mitchell contributes at all early in his career given how difficult it can be to find contributors in the sixth round. Shanahan likes running backs that can score any time they touch the ball and Mitchell appears to be that guy. He averaged 6.2 yards per carry and scored 41 touchdowns in 42 games in college.

Grade: B+