Analysis: OKC is still not running with the big dogs, and I can live with that

"Ordinary," "regular," "fair," "common," "so-so," "decent," "mediocre" — that last one hurt, but those are all synonyms for "average," which Oklahoma City still is, according to "Emerging Trends in Real Estate 2023," the annual survey by the Urban Land Institute and PwC (PricewaterhouseCoopers).

In local public and private investment? Average (ordinary, regular, fair, common, so-so, decent, mediocre). Really? Have they even heard of MAPS?

In availability of debt and equity capital? Average (ordinary, regular, fair, common, so-so, decent, mediocre). Really.

We did improve slightly over last year's assessment in "Emerging Trends."

  • Overall Real Estate Prospects: No. 68, up from No. 75 last year; flanked this year by Deltona/Daytona, Florida, at No. 67, and Providence, Rhode Island, at No. 69.

  • Homebuilding Prospects: No. 49, up from No. 50 last year; flanked this year by Northern New Jersey at No. 48, and Baltimore, Maryland, at No. 50.

OKC: We're good enough, we're smart enough, and doggone it, people like us!

Sorry, I've been sifting out the few mentions Oklahoma City gets in this otherwise great publication for years now, and it's always the same: Oklahoma City, while considered as one of the "Markets to Watch," is also sort of considered an also-ran.

Eh. How you see that depends on who you think we're running with. It may not be who you think.

Why, Dallas, Denver, and Kansas City, Missouri, right?

One of those, anyway. Here's who, according to "Emerging Trends."

Oklahoma City is in the "Determined Competitor" subgroup of the "Backbone" major group, along with Birmingham, Alabama; Louisville, Kentucky; Indianapolis, Indiana; and Kansas City, Missouri.

Not too shabby, not that shiny. Average.

Here's how the Urban Land Institute and PwC characterize "Determined Competitors":

  • "These diverse markets tend to be strong ancillary locations in their regions, with several successfully revitalizing their downtowns and neighborhoods." Check!

  • "These markets tend to be very affordable with a favorable quality of life." That's us!

  • "Significantly, all maintained positive population growth through the pandemic." OK. Now, I'm blushing!

Here's how they characterize the larger "Backbone" major group:

"A wide variety of interesting and enjoyable places to live and work. Though generally rated relatively lower in our surveys, many of these metro areas offer select investment development/redevelopment opportunities. ... Most of the Backbone markets are slower growing but benefit from moderate housing and business costs."

Check, check, check, check.

But it all adds up to: Average (ordinary, regular, fair, common, so-so, decent, mediocre), in the eyes of the hundreds of commercial real estate and finance pros interviewed by the Urban Land Institute and PwC for "Emerging Trends."

OKC can dream to be as big as Dallas (a nightmare for some people)

Just for funsies, here's the "Emerging Trends" lowdown on the groups Dallas falls into.

The subgroup is "Super Sun Belt":

"These markets are large and diverse but still affordable, forming powerhouse economies that attract a wide range of businesses. Despite their large population bases, most are among the fastest-growing markets in the United States. Moreover, their economic performance has been solid through thick and thin. Though every market lost jobs during the pandemic recession, recovery has been much quicker and more complete in the Super Sun Belt markets."

And the major group is "Magnets":

"Magnet markets are migration destinations for both people and companies, and most are growing more quickly than the U.S. average in terms of both population and jobs. These metro areas are also the preferred markets for investors and builders, with the highest average 'Overall Real Estate Prospects' ratings of any group in the 'Emerging Trends' survey by a wide margin. Collectively, these markets account for almost one-third of the population base in the 'Emerging Trends' coverage universe. ..."

Which all sounds well and good, and some people aspire to it. I think of the traffic, myself. Dallas is a great place to visit, but, as they say, I wouldn't want to live there.

Senior Business Writer Richard Mize has covered housing, construction, commercial real estate and related topics for the newspaper and Oklahoman.com since 1999. Contact him at rmize@oklahoman.com. Sign up here for his weekly newsletter, Real Estate with Richard Mize.

This article originally appeared on Oklahoman: 'Emerging Trends in Real Estate' and its annual take on Oklahoma City

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