Analysis: Pac-12 basketball’s future is tied almost exclusively to Arizona
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The Pac-12 just got eliminated from the 2023 NCAA Tournament on Thursday when UCLA fell to Gonzaga. The Pac-12’s only Final Four trip in the past six seasons was UCLA’s unlikely ride to the 2021 Final Four as a No. 11 seed. That’s it. No other Pac-12 team has reached the Final Four since Oregon in 2017.
With UCLA and USC heading for the Big Ten in two years, the Pac-12 gets just one more season with the Bruins and Trojans. Both UCLA and USC could be really good next season, but after that, they’ll be in another conference. The Pac-12 might have two or three Final Four contenders next season, but if 2024 doesn’t deliver the goods, the Pac-12 will have to face a very inconvenient reality: Arizona will be the one program in the conference with a realistic chance of winning a national title.
Yes, San Diego State could come over from the Mountain West and become the league’s second March threat, but we have to wait and see if the Aztecs can become a top-tier NCAA Tournament seed the way UCLA and Arizona have been in recent seasons. SDSU is a 5 seed in this year’s Big Dance, and the Aztecs are still alive as we write this article on Friday morning before the team’s Sweet 16 game against Alabama. However, San Diego State has not regularly been a top-four seed in the NCAA Tournament. The 2011 team with Kawhi Leonard was a No. 2 seed, but that’s the exception and not the rule.
Other than SDSU, the only other possible candidate for NCAA Tournament championship contention might be Oregon if Dana Altman can author a resurrection. Yet, Oregon has been below average the past two seasons and needs a reboot. Some quality recruits are coming in, but Altman has swung and missed in the transfer portal, where he had done a really good job in previous seasons.
Washington, Washington State, Oregon State, Stanford, Cal, Utah, Colorado, and Arizona State — eight of the conference’s long-term members when USC and UCLA leave — are in no position to contend for the Final Four, let alone the national title. It’s Arizona, maybe SDSU, maybe Oregon. That’s it. If neither USC nor UCLA can make a big run in 2024, it’s going to be Arizona’s conference to run unless Dana Altman can revive Oregon.
No pressure, Wildcats.
