Kings-Warriors Analysis: Position-by-position breakdown of matchups in NBA playoff series

Here’s a position-by-position breakdown of the Sacramento Kings and Golden State Warriors as they square off in the first round of the NBA playoffs beginning with Game 1 on Saturday at Golden 1 Center.

Point guard

De’Aaron Fox vs. Stephen Curry

Fox this year was a first-time All-Star, worthy of All-NBA consideration, and is the rightful favorite for the NBA’s inaugural Jerry West Clutch Player of the Year Award. His 25 points per game is decimal points behind his career high from two seasons ago when he was a significantly less efficient scorer. More importantly than his per-game total is his career-best shooting percentages nearly across the board. His 58.4% clip on two-point shots is far and away a personal high while this season also marked the first time he made over half of his field-goal attempts over an entire year (51.2%).

Fox, of course, was the NBA’s most prolific scorer in the clutch this year, scoring a league-high 194 points when games were within five points inside the final five minutes. Second best was Chicago Bulls guard DeMar DeRozan at 159. And of the top 13 scorers in clutch scenarios, Fox had the best shooting percentage at 52.9% in those spots.

But Stephen Curry has been the point guard of his generation and will shoehorn himself into consideration as one of the 10 best players of all time — if he isn’t there already. Curry’s career has been so prolific that it’s no slight on Fox to not be considered the better player.

Curry, after all, is less than a year from a career apex when he won Finals MVP against the Boston Celtics, who boasted the best defense in the league and had Defensive Player of the Year Marcus Smart hounding Curry. His 43-point performance in Game 4 in Boston might be the game he’s remembered for most. The NBA’s career leader in 3-pointers averaged 29.4 points per game this season.

Fox, 25, had a more prolific regular season while appearing in far more games because Curry was injured. Curry, who turned 35 in March, played in 56 games to Fox’s 73. But Curry gets the nod here because of his championship experience. He has four rings, two league MVPs and locked up his first-ballot Hall of Fame candidacy years ago. Fox on Saturday will play his first playoff game, and has plenty of time to add to his career accomplishments.

Advantage: Curry

Shooting guard

Kevin Huerter vs. Klay Thompson

If you squint, you might see similarities in these two players’ games. Both move well off the ball and are two of the most prolific 3-point shooters in the NBA. Huerter said after Thursday’s practice he’s spent hours studying the way Thompson moves off the ball. The Kings acquired Huerter for a conditional first-round pick in a trade with the Atlanta Hawks last offseason — a move which worked out brilliantly for general manager Monte McNair and Co.

Huerter has been a good complement to Fox and center Domantas Sabonis, working particularly well off dribble hand-offs with Sabonis where he can use the center’s screening and passing chops. Huerter is the Kings’ best mover off the ball — and arguably their best 3-point shooter.

Thompson led the NBA with 301 made 3-pointers (106 more than Huerter) despite appearing in six fewer games. Thompson isn’t the same player after missing two seasons with ACL and Achilles tears, but his scoring numbers are back to pre-injury levels. He averaged 21.9 points this year, his most since 2016-17. Huerter is no slouch, but his 15.2 points per game, a career high, is substantially behind Thompson, while his 712 playoff minutes don’t come close to Thompson’s 5,361.

Advantage: Thompson

Small forward

Keegan Murray vs. Andrew Wiggins

Murray will undoubtedly be named to the league’s All-Rookie team after setting a record for 3-pointers made by a first-year player with 206. He finished with one more than Huerter while shooting at a slightly higher clip (.412 to .402) and grew noticeably more comfortable as the season wore on.

Murray improved on his ball handling, passing and rebounding as the year progressed, and became far more than a spot-up shooter. The No. 4 pick from Iowa played in 80 games and averaged 12.2 points. Improving his defense is imperative to the team making a much-needed leap in the future. But in these playoffs, he figures to be the player the Warriors isolate in one-on-one scenarios to pick at his inexperience.

Wiggins was the Warriors’ second-best player in last year’s playoffs behind Curry. In his second career postseason, he averaged 16.5 points while often guarding the opponent’s best player perimeter scorer. This season has mostly been a wash after he signed a four-year, $109 million extension. He missed the last 25 games of the season while his father dealt with a serious medical issue and hasn’t played in a game since Feb. 13. The Athletic reported Thursday Wiggins would come off the bench and likely play 20 to 25 minutes in Game 1.

A fully in-form Wiggins is likely the better player here. But he enters the series as a question mark given all the time off, while Murray’s shooting percentage from distance and scoring has increased the last two months.

Advantage: Murray

Power forward

Harrison Barnes vs. Draymond Green

The two former teammates couldn’t have more contrasting styles — or personalities. Barnes is quiet, often avoids the spotlight and considers himself a lead-by-example type. Green has a podcast and might be the most outspoken player in the NBA.

On the court, Green remains one of the league’s premier defenders. He’s the quarterback of the Warriors’ defense, often doing his best work when he can roam freely to disrupt passing lanes and protect the paint, while his one-on-one defense has declined slightly as he wades into his mid-30s.

Golden State with Green on the floor has a 109.2 defensive rating and +7.0 net rating. With him off the floor, the defensive rating jumps to 113.4 and net rating falls to +1.7.

For Barnes, he leads the Kings’ regular rotation players with a +4.8 net rating (up from the team’s +2.6) and improves the group’s offense more than its defense. He scores 15 points per game with 4.5 rebounds and 1.6 assists while shooting a respectable 37.4% from 3. Green’s scoring numbers aren’t at the same level (8.7 points, 7.2 rebounds and 6.8 assists) but he means more to the Warriors than Barnes does to Sacramento. This one was a tough call.

Advantage: Green

Center

Domantas Sabonis vs. Kevon Looney

Sabonis earned his third All-Star nomination and is a favorite to be named a third-team All-NBA center behind MVP candidates Joel Embiid and Nikola Jokic. He led the entire NBA in rebounding and finished fifth in overall assists. Jokic was the only other player in the NBA to finish top-five in the league in both categories. Sabonis of course, led the NBA with 65 double-doubles on the year.

Looney this season had more offensive rebounds than anyone else in the NBA and has been a core role player for the Warriors during their dynastic run. He’s sturdy, both on the floor and in the locker room, having not missed a game since 2020-21.

Sabonis is a rare center who excels in today’s faster-paced NBA. Like Green for the Warriors, he can grab a rebound, push the ball up the floor and set up shooters with his screening and passing. Sabonis might be the best distributor in the NBA in dribble handoffs.

Advantage: Sabonis

Bench

Kings: Malik Monk, Davion Mitchell, Trey Lyles, Kessler Edwards, Terence Davis, Chimezie Metu, Alex Len

Warriors: Jordan Poole, Donte DiVincenzo, Jonathan Kuminga, Gary Payton II

How deep Kings coach Mike Brown goes down his bench will be worth watching throughout the series. He might not need Metu or Len as much as they played in the regular season because the Warriors don’t have a traditional backup center, which could lead to Lyles getting more time as a small-ball five.

Monk and Poole are both microwave scorers. DiVincenzo and Mitchell both offer defense and playmaking, though DiVincenzo is a notably better 3-point shooter. Brown could turn to Edwards to provide athleticism and defense on the perimeter, though it’s unclear if the Warriors would bother guarding him on the perimeter, which could gum up Sacramento’s offense.

Payton is a wild card who could be used to guard Fox in the fourth quarter — after he credibly defended players such as Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown in last year’s Finals.

But for the season, the Kings’ bench had the ninth-best net rating in the NBA, while the Warriors ranked 17th. Sacramento’s reserves have been reliable and consistent throughout the season, while Golden State’s bench has been in flux throughout the year. For that reason, the nod is going to the higher seed.

Advantage: Kings