Analysis: Where Donna Deegan and Daniel Davis captured votes, and what it means for runoff

The anticipated run-off election between Donna Deegan and Daniel Davis is off to the races after Deegan won 39.4% of the vote in the Tuesday election and Davis captured 24.7%.

Deegan, a Democrat, and Davis, a Republican, will face off May 16. The winner will be sworn in on July 1 as the city’s next mayor.

On a precinct-by-precinct basis, here is what the election map looked like for them in the results Tuesday.

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Deegan won eight of every 10 precincts citywide

Deegan picked up support across the city. She won the most votes in 147 of 186 precincts. On her home turf, the Atlantic Beach resident was the top vote-getter at the Beaches. Davis won 30 precincts including on the Westside, which he once represented on City Council and in the state Legislature. He also won in Ortega, where he lives, and in Mandarin and scattered Southside precincts.

The Ferraro factor was strongest in his City Council district

City Council member Al Ferraro won 16.2% of the vote to finish in third place. He won nine precincts that all fall within City Council District 2 that he has represented since 2015, spanning parts of East Arlington and the Northside. Turnout in five of those precincts topped 40%, showing higher voter participation than citywide turnout of 26%. Davis stands to pick up sizeable support in the May runoff from Ferraro voters if they show the same turnout enthusiasm for him.

Gibson and Cumber did not win any precincts

Former state senator Audrey Gibson and City Council member LeAnna Cumber did not win any precincts. Gibson, a Democrat, trailed Deegan across the city, including in the part of the city she had represented in the state Legislature. Cumber won election unopposed in 2019 to District 5, which covers San Marco and part of the Southside. But in the election Tuesday, Deegan was the top vote-winner in all 12 precincts in District 5.

Turnout in Northwest Jacksonville will be key in May for Deegan

Deegan cleared more than 50% of the vote in 41 precincts with almost all of them in Northwest Jacksonville that is the political base of the Democratic Party in Duval County. Gibson had strong second-place finishes so Deegan will have a path to growing her support in those precincts.

But even if Deegan consolidates support, many of those districts had voter turnout of less than 20%. Her challenge will be to rev up turnout by Democratic voters in those precincts.

Davis must consolidate Republican support

On the Republican side, Ferraro was the only candidate to clear 50% in a precinct, and he did that in only one precinct on the Northside at the Black Hammock Island Community Center site.

Davis faced opposition from two Republicans serving on City Council plus newcomer Frank Keasler. Those campaigns fragmented the Republican vote more than any other mayoral election since 2003 when John Peyton won 23.6% of the vote and went on to win a run-off election against Nat Glover, a Democrat.

But compared to 2003, Deegan heads into the runoff election in a stronger position than Glover who captured about 28% in the first election that year.

This article originally appeared on Florida Times-Union: How Jacksonville voters went by precinct in mayor's race