Analysts shift ratings in Iowa US Senate race from 'safe' Chuck Grassley win to 'likely'

Two election analysts are slightly downgrading Republican U.S. Sen. Chuck Grassley’s chances of winning reelection this November following the release of a new Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll, though they still say a Grassley victory is likely.

The poll, released this week, shows Grassley leading Democrat Mike Franken by 3 percentage points — down from 8 points in July. Grassley now leads 46% to 43% among likely voters, with 4% saying they would vote for someone else, 4% saying they would not vote and 3% who are not sure.

It suggests a contest closer than any Grassley has faced since he defeated a Democratic incumbent by 8 percentage points to win his first election to the U.S. Senate in 1980.

Sabato's Crystal Ball and Cook Political Report are shifting their ratings of the race from a "safe" or "solid" Republican victory to a "likely" Republican win.

More:Will Chuck Grassley’s age hurt his reelection chances? Most likely voters say they have concerns

It’s a subtle shift, but one that indicates the Senate race’s outcome is not a foregone conclusion, as some had previously assumed.

“Do I think that Chuck Grassley is in serious danger of losing? No, I don’t,” said Kyle Kondik, managing editor of Sabato’s Crystal Ball. “But I also think we’ve seen enough in this race to look at it as maybe being in a different category than, you know, the Oklahoma Senate race, that sort of thing — some of the other races in the safe Republican column.”

Kondik told the Des Moines Register that Sabato would release its official ratings shift Wednesday.

Jessica Taylor, the Senate and governors editor with Cook Political Report, released her rating change Tuesday afternoon. She noted the poll results, including numbers that show Grassley's approval rating is now underwater for the first time in the Iowa Poll's history, with more disapproving (48%) than approving (44%).

Still, Taylor writes that, "we still see Grassley as the clear favorite to win re-election, but it could be his closest race ever since he was first elected in 1980 by 8 points."

Undecided voters will likely favor Republicans on Election Day, she writes, and Democrats were unable to knock off Republican U.S. Sen. Joni Ernst in 2020, despite close polling and a well-funded effort.

More:Chuck Grassley, Mike Franken clash on abortion, inflation in US Senate debate

RealClearPolitics also recently changed their rating of the race from "safe GOP" to "likely GOP."

The rating changes also come on the heels of another strong fundraiser quarter for Franken. Franken reported raising $3.6 million for the quarter that ended Sept. 30, according to federal financial filings. Grassley tallied about $1.7 million during the same time period.

Franken has also raised more money during the full campaign cycle, recording about $8.2 million compared to Grassley’s $7.9 million.

Brianne Pfannenstiel is the chief politics reporter for the Register. Reach her atbpfann@dmreg.com or 515-284-8244. Follow her on Twitter at @brianneDMR.

This article originally appeared on Des Moines Register: Analysts shift ratings from 'safe' Grassley reelection win to 'likely'