Analyzing early line movement in Colorado vs. Oregon

·2 min read

The spread for the matchup between the Colorado Buffaloes and the Oregon Ducks has seen a lot of early movement.

And likely in the direction CU fans would not expect.

Oregon opened as a 28-point favorite on most betting sites, that number is already down to 23.5 on the Tipico Sportsbook.

So why all of the early line movement?

For one, the majority of the early money has been coming in on the Buffaloes. Popular betting information sites are reporting over 60% of the money so far is on the Buffs while the public is split closer to 50-50.

Early money almost always tends to be sharp money barring unforeseen circumstances. Sharp money means it’s typically the professional bettors that are putting money on Colorado.

But why?

Anybody that has watched CU play football for the last month or so is likely asking that question.

Oregon has struggled a bit in recent weeks since losing to Stanford in overtime, they’ve only won their last two games by one score. But I was actually impressed with the Ducks’ performance this past week against UCLA.

They seem to be getting back to being fully healthy. The loss of CJ Verdell at running back doesn’t seem to be as damaging with Travis Dye running all over the UCLA defense.

And Kayvon Thibodeaux just played his first complete game of the season, earning him the Pac-12 Defensive and Defensive Lineman of the Week and the Chuck Bednarik National Player of the Week award. He racked up nine tackles (4.5 for a loss), two sacks and a forced fumble in Oregon’s win at UCLA.

How is the Colorado offensive line (which just fired its coach) supposed to stop Thibodeaux?

I assume the sharp bettors are considering Oregon’s offense and wondering if they have the ability to put up enough points to cover the 24-point spread.

Oregon hasn’t covered the spread as a favorite yet this season but they are 7-3 against the spread in the last 10 games against Colorado.

All Betting Lines are Courtesy of Tipico Sportsbook

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