Can Andy Beshear win Northern Kentucky again?

Kentucky's governor race is like a forecast for national elections: Whichever party wins in the state's rare off-year election takes the presidency the following year.

In 2019, Democrat Andy Beshear squeaked out a victory with just 5,000 more votes – barely over one percentage point. Whether he can do it again seems to boil down to a few major issues – the pandemic, infrastructure, social issues, and whether he can sway Northern Kentucky voters in particular.

Those voters might be key to winning the election for Beshear and his Republican challenger, Attorney General Daniel Cameron. Every candidate this century who has won at least two of Northern Kentucky's three counties has taken office.

Across the Ohio River from Cincinnati, Northern Kentucky is home to 400,000 residents. Unlike some other parts of the state, all three counties it's comprised of have a strong urban, suburban and rural presence.

The Enquirer invested several months into attending political events, speaking to voters and organizers, and analyzing data about Northern Kentucky elections. Here are a few key takeaways that give insight into how this gubernatorial race is playing out so far in Boone, Kenton and Campbell counties and why it matters.

Northern Kentucky is an election powerhouse for governors

The voters in Northern Kentucky's three counties proved in 2019 how essential they are to a victory.

Beshear didn't get the most votes in the area, though he won Kenton and Campbell counties. But he scored big when it came to convincing some voters to swap their Republican vote for a Democratic one.

So, for a win in Northern Kentucky this November, Beshear doesn't have to get the most votes. He needs to keep the area's swing voters blue.

The presidential election next year could thwart those plans. Kentucky has voted Republican in every national election for the past 20 years.

But political parties still duel for the gubernatorial seat, helping to make the state a bellwether for the presidential election, with voters taking out their ire about national politics on statewide candidates.

Cameron has seized on that issue, telling people a vote for Beshear is a vote for Biden policies. While he tries to court swing voters frustrated at the Democratic president, some of those constituents could already be pulling away from the Republican party.

Former President Donald Trump is facing felony charges in New York and Georgia, yet he is leading the polls among the Republican pack of presidential hopefuls.

That's seemingly unrelated to the Kentucky gubernatorial race. But Trump endorsed Cameron last spring and the governor hopeful welcomed that support, reminding voters about it before the primary this year.

The pandemic response dilemma

"I'm upset that I lost a brother during the pandemic."

"And my mom."

"You want people pissed off? I'm one of them. We lost family."

Janet Cowen and Laural Bishop sipped on gin and bourbon at a Florence restaurant before a Boone County Democratic Women's Club meeting.

Cowen said her brother was a staunch Republican who fell victim to misinformation about the COVID-19 vaccine, getting the shot while it may have been too late for it to be effective for him. Bishop's mom caught COVID-19 in a nursing home and her daughter convinced the staff to let her visit while wearing personal protective equipment.

"I got there and she died in 10 minutes," Bishop said.

Both said Beshear was their rock during the pandemic, keeping them updated about the virus with his daily TV appearances, instituting a mask mandate, and temporarily closing nonessential businesses.

It saved lives, both women said.

But that's one side. Cameron has pounced on Beshear's handling of the crisis, which started about three months after he took office.

During the Fancy Farm picnic in Western Kentucky, Cameron used his roughly 5-minute speech to remind people Beshear "closed down main street" and in-person schooling and forbade mass gatherings, including at churches.

"Andy Beshear locked the schools and threw open the jails. He sent the state police after Christians on Easter Sunday," Cameron said, to a mix of cheers and boos at the annual candidate gathering in Western Kentucky in August.

Campaign flyers he's sent out bash Beshear for the shutdown's impact on businesses.

According to the Courier Journal, Cameron filed three pandemic-related lawsuits directly against Beshear and his administration. Those lawsuits opposed travel restrictions and supported in-person church services and in-person schooling. The first two lawsuits were deemed moot after restrictions were lifted. After the state Legislature passed a law making it illegal for the governor to stop in-person learning, that lawsuit was also dismissed as moot.

More than 19,000 people have died from COVID-19 in the state, according to the Kentucky Department of Public Health.

Will the Brent Spence Bridge and no tolls matter?

At least three presidents and five Kentucky governors have tried to scrape together enough money to upgrade one of the most essential transportation arteries in the country – and it's happening under the leadership of Beshear and President Joe Biden.

The Brent Spence Bridge, which connects Northern Kentucky to Cincinnati, carries $2 billion in freight from Florida to Canada every day – and twice as much traffic as it's designed for.

Kentuckians have spent about three decades waiting for relief from congestion on the bridge. They're getting it with the $3.6 billion Brent Spence Bridge Corridor Project, which includes a new companion bridge and nearby road repairs.

Most importantly for voters, who drive over the bridge for everything from work to cheering for the Bengals at Paycor Stadium, the entire project will be paid for without tolls.

It's a fact Beshear is not letting voters forget.

Last month, Beshear rallied with voters at an open house in Covington, Northern Kentucky's biggest city. The room was packed shoulder-to-shoulder with voters, some of whom waited almost an hour for selfies with the governor and to get campaign signs autographed.

"I'm the governor who built the Brent Spence companion bridge without tolls," he reminded reporters afterward.

He mentioned the toll-less bridge twice during a 4-minute group interview and it's something he works into just about every campaign stump speech he makes.

Cameron can't compete with that kind of infrastructure accomplishment.

When asked about infrastructure during a forum recently, Cameron pointed out the high number of fatalities on rural roads and said, as governor, he would focus on repairing those roads in addition to major projects, the Courier Journal reported.

Abortion and transgender rights

Arguably the most controversial issues Kentucky leadership have taken on in the past few years are abortion and transgender services for minors.

Kentucky has a near-total abortion ban. There is no exception for victims of rape or incest. The only exception is when a mother's life is at risk.

In a recent ad in favor of Beshear, Kentuckian Hadley Duvall said her stepfather sexually assaulted her for years and raped her when she was 12 years old.

"This is to you, Daniel Cameron. To tell a 12-year-old girl she must have the baby of her stepfather who raped her is unthinkable," she said.

Cameron is staunchly opposed to abortion but said during an interview on the Tony & Dwight show on NewsRadio 840 WHAS that there is "no question" he would sign legislation with abortion exceptions in instances of rape and incest.

He's been vague since then about whether he stands by that statement.

Transgender medical care access for minors was banned in Kentucky in June and new restrictions were established in schools. Thousands of protesters – students, teachers, families – flooded onto the capitol to object to the legislation before it became law in March. Beshear vetoed the bill.

But it's another issue Cameron has seized on, mocking Beshear for his support of the transgender community.

"The governor has the audacity to lecture rural Kentuckians about right and wrong when he and Joe Biden can't even tell the difference between a man and a woman," he said at Fancy Farm.

How are Beshear and Cameron trying to get NKY voters?

The Northern Kentucky game plan for both candidates doesn't look too different from any other election. Both are making stops throughout the area. Volunteers are phone banking. There's plenty of mudslinging on TV.

At least that's how it seems on the surface. Both candidates declined interview requests from The Enquirer through their media representatives. But supporters leading reelection efforts are going about the ground game differently depending on which party they're representing.

Shane Noem, lobbyist and chair of the Kenton County Republicans, knocked on doors in Fort Mitchell on a hot Saturday morning in September. He said Republicans are rebounding from their candidate in the last election, former Gov. Matt Bevin – a point they have to stress when talking with voters.

"Our candidate was not the greatest (and) had some pretty serious flaws that became more apparent near the end of the campaign and after it was over. … This was a Northern Kentucky suburbs issue where, frankly, suburban educated voters don't like a crass politician that was pretty reckless with their words and careless with their word choices," he said.

Democrats face a harder battle.

Linda Nesbitt canvassed throughout Newport on a sweltering and mosquito-ridden evening in August. She knocked on 78 doors in two days.

As she chatted with people at their doorstep, she had to pitch more than Beshear's message. She went over the statewide ballot to garner Democratic support across the board in hopes of giving the governor more support if he wins.

"The attorney general, the now gubernatorial candidate, has stymied so much of Beshear ... and that's dysfunctional government," she said.

Pulling off a blue boost in NKY's most red county

Boone County is a deeply conservative area with voters pulling in Republican wins for every election in the past two decades. According to recent voter registration rolls, it's not getting any more blue.

In August 2019, shortly before Beshear won the governor's race, about 33% of registered voters were Democrats in the county. As of last month, registered Democrats made up 29.6% of registered voters. Republicans dominate the county with nearly twice as many Republican voters registered this year than Democrats.

That suggests the boost Beshear counted on last election could be slipping. But that doesn't mean everyone thinks Boone County is a lost cause.

Back at a restaurant in Florence, the women who lead the Boone County Democratic Women's Club have a consensus about the upcoming election.

Four years ago, voters had something to rally against because Bevin made enemies among teachers and other Republicans. This time, the women said, people have something to vote for instead – a governor with a track record of sticking up for them.

Bishop remembers election night in 2019 when she left a "pretty solemn" watch party at Molly Malone's Irish Pub & Restaurant in Covington. Election results were rolling in and it looked like Beshear would be crushed by Bevin voters. She left early, but her phone started repeatedly dinging during the drive home.

"When I pick it up and look, I'm like, 'Oh my gosh, yes! Yeah, we can do this. It's going to happen, it's going to happen,'" she recalled.

While the women are sure most Boone County voters will cast a ballot for Cameron, they'll still do everything they can for Beshear. Because with just a few thousand votes, they believe it's going to happen for the Democratic governor again.

This article originally appeared on Cincinnati Enquirer: Election 2023: Can Beshear win Northern Kentucky again?