Andy Kim must outflank Tammy Murphy — and the NJ ballot 'line.' Can he succeed? | Stile

As the New Jersey Democratic Party establishment solidifies its support for Tammy Murphy, a wishful-thinking scenario persists among the reformers in the party’s restive progressive wing.

Call it the look-on-the-bright-side argument.

For one thing, New Jersey's U.S. Senate contest next year will occur alongside a presidential contest that will drive much higher turnout and attract a broader array of voters in the Democratic primary, including legions of them who have no attachment to county party machines.

The angry and anti-establishment voter may be hungry for new choices and competition and repelled by a swift coronation of someone who has never held elected office.

Many of these presidential-year registered Democrats casting ballots in next spring's primary just might see her ascendancy to one of the most powerful seats in the democracy as anti-democratic, an exercise in crony capitalism under the façade of public service.

They just might be lured by the good-government pitch of Rep. Andy Kim, the crafty and battle-tested Burlington County congressman who came up the hard way, unseating a Republican in a Trump district, and who went viral as the forlorn yet determined House member who literally picked the pieces of a shattered democracy off the floor of the Capitol rotunda the day after the Jan. 6 rebellion.

He’s a rank-and-file Democrat with a reformer vibe — and who apparently knows how to raise money.

Then there's the nagging and toxic presence of Sen. Bob Menendez, whose recent indictment on charges of taking bribes while working on behalf of the Egyptian government is why there is a scramble for his job instead of a cruise-control yawner next year.

Menendez appears to be digging in his heels despite the immense pressure on him to resign, and he hasn’t ruled out running for another term.

Menendez will unleash the furies on his primary opponents, especially candidate Murphy and her husband, Gov. Phil Murphy, whose swift call for his resignation was seen as an act of betrayal — and a cynical attempt to pave the way for his wife’s ambitions.

"When Phil Murphy rushed to judgement and called on me to resign, it was clear he had a personal, vested interest in doing so at the expense of core democratic principles -- the presumption of innocence and due process,'' Menendez said in a statement last week.

“Gold Bar Bob," as Republican candidate Christine Serrano Glassner dubbed him, could very well become “Brick Throwing Bob” with nothing to lose. His attacks could give long shot Kim the opening he needs.

So who knows? Maybe an impressive challenger like Kim, who busted out of the box with $1 million in campaign cash a week after Menendez’s indictment in September, can make this a legitimate competition. And also joining the race is longtime Newark-based activist Lawrence Hamm and possibly Latina activist Patricia Campos-Medina, which could bring a lot of scrutiny and energy.

“What I've been hearing is people want change," Kim said in an interview with NJ Spotlight TV last week. “People want the politics of integrity, and people want [candidates] with experience that know how to do the job and be able to have that commitment to public service.”

First lady makes a play for DC: Tammy Murphy, New Jersey's first lady, will seek Bob Menendez's US Senate seat

But what about the line?

It's an intriguing scenario. And yet …

There is a stubborn thing called “the line” or the “county line.” And there is a stubborn thing called history. And facts.

The reality is that candidates who snap up the endorsements of the state’s influential county party leaders and regional power brokers often are bracketed in a premier position on the primary ballot column, or line, with other candidates who have won the blessing. Getting the line often almost always leads to a victory in the June primary.

Julia Sass Rubin, a professor at the Edward J. Bloustein School of Planning and Public Policy at Rutgers University who studies the power of New Jersey’s county party system, examined 45 congressional contests between 2002 and 2022 in which county political support was split between two candidates.

She found the line county line blessing, on average, bestowed a 38 percentage point advantage to candidates. “In every one of those 45 races, the county line was completely deterministic,’’ she said.

The early, out-of-the-gate push for party support suggest that Tammy Murphy is on pace for a clean sweep. She has already snapped up the endorsements of Hudson County — which doubled as a humiliating rebuke of Menendez, his home base — and Camden County.

Peg Schaeffer, the chairwoman of the Somerset County Democratic Organization, has endorsed her.

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On Friday, Murphy collected two more crucial county endorsements.

Bergen County Democratic Chairman Paul Juliano endorsed her, asserting “Tammy Murphy has proven to be a determined and unwavering champion for New Jersey families and accomplished so much to build a stronger future for our state."

The endorsement from Juliano, who landed a plum $280,000-a-year post as the chief executive officer of the New Jersey Sports and Exposition Authority, reportedly with the governor's blessing, does not mean Murphy will automatically be granted the coveted line bracketing and the party's get-out-the-vote resources that often comes with it.

Individual members of the Bergen Democratic committee will decide who gets the line through a secret ballot at a party convention next year. But Juliano's support holds powerful sway over members who often look to the chairman for guidance and direction.

Also on Friday, Middlesex County Democratic Chairman Kevin McCabe, a lobbyist with business interests before the state and who was reappointed to the Port Authority of New York and New Jersey by the governor, also endorsed Tammy Murphy's Senate bid.

Within 48 hours of her announcement, Murphy had locked up the the support of Democratic Party leaders of counties representing nearly 40% of the state's 2.5 million Democratic Party voters.

Other institutional levers and allies could also translate into crucial institutional endorsements. The state party chairman, LeRoy Jones, is also the Democratic chairman of Essex County, home to the largest cache of Democratic Party voters. He is also a lobbyist who has business interests before the state.

And, of course, the governor has the power of his office to help leverage support through appointments, coveted legislation and budget pork (that would be doled out after the primary).

Rubin, of Rutgers, who likens the primary system to a vestige of the corrupt Tammany Hall politics, believes Kim has a chance if he can maintain strong fundraising and keep the contest focused on the broken primary process, but she acknowledges that it will be an “uphill battle” for him.

“It looks like she’s going to get 80% of the county lines, if not all of them," Rubin said. “She got the name recognition, money and the line.’’ Rubin noted that Murphy is also known as a formidable Democratic Party fundraiser in her own right.

Tammy Murphy also holds out the promise of being a glass-ceiling breaker of New Jersey politics as the state’s first woman senator. That argument is certain to be a major part of her early pitch to party power brokers — if it hasn’t been already. Juliano stressed that issue in his endorsement. And Murphy is holding herself forth as a reliable supporter of abortion rights, gun control and continuing advocacy for maternal health care, a chief focus of her work as first lady.

"I am the one who has shown up in some of the most difficult places in New Jersey," she said in an interview with NorthJersey.com and The Record. “I've held family festivals. I've said I've helped bring in resources. I bring people together. I've walked into communities of faith, and I have called out institutional racism when it comes to health care inequities in maternal and infant health.”

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Infuriated NJ progressives fight the line

The swift circling-of-wagons around Tammy Murphy has infuriated progressives, who have gone to federal court seeking to strike down the county line system as unconstitutional; the case is still pending. But they see it as nepotism on a grand scale and Exhibit A of a system rigged by party insiders.

“We are offended that the corruption from Senator Menendez, who is under indictment and who has still refused to resign, is going to be replaced with nepotism," said members of the Fair Vote Alliance, a coalition of grassroots progressive groups, in a joint statement. We are the backbone of the Democratic party and we will not work for a process that subverts democracy.”

But some feel that the system still allows that “backbone” of the party to mobilize and campaign for votes.

While it's true that county chairman hold a powerful sway over the county committee members who ultimately vote to award the premier ballot line, some may be uneasy about the process and could be persuaded to consider Kim or somebody else.

But they are going to have to work for it between now and next spring, when the primary process begins in earnest. Besides, its unlikely that the system is going to change between now and then. It would mean cobbling together his own competing slates and wooing rank and file in each county despite the chairmen's endorsement.

Kim isn’t waiting around for lightning to strike down the line system and leave a completely open competition in its wake.

“This is about giving people the vote, and giving people a choice, and that’s really what all of us should be committed to do," he said.

And Tammy Murphy isn’t waiting around, either.

“I am being asked to do this, and I have a broad coalition already and it's going to get even bigger," she asserted.

Charlie Stile is a veteran New Jersey political columnist. For unlimited access to his unique insights into New Jersey’s political power structure and his powerful watchdog work, please subscribe or activate your digital account today.

Email: stile@northjersey.com

This article originally appeared on NorthJersey.com: Tammy Murphy vs. Andy Kim for NJ senator: Who can win?