Andy Kim says he can win. Will 'Gold Bar Bob' Menendez get out of the way? - Stile

It was the stream of Sen. Bob Menendez's self-serving and defensive remarks to his latest federal corruption indictment that proved to be the "tipping point" for Rep. Andy Kim, the South Jersey Democrat who is vowing to replace Menendez next year.

Kim, a Korean American from Burlington County, found Menendez's playing the race card particularly irksome. But it was Menendez's blunt declaration — "I'm not going anywhere" — that prompted Kim to take the leap and take on the powerful and much-feared powerhouse from Hudson County.

"It felt like he was saying that he owns that job — that it is his," Kim said in an interview with NorthJersey.com and The Record last week. "But I have a very different perspective about public servants. I, for one, believe that these jobs are owned by the people."

That image of a 41-year-old Kim — of the humble public servant infused with idealism — is very much the image he has cultivated since launching his grueling campaign to unseat Republican Tom MacArthur in the "blue wave" midterms of 2018. And we saw the same image of Kim in his viral moment gathering debris from the floor of the Capitol Rotunda after the Jan. 6, 2021, riot, a moment that landed the little-known lawmaker on cable news and his dirtied suit in the Smithsonian.

Yet that image belies the steely, shrewd and ambitious political operative now at the forefront of the conversation to replace the embattled Menendez, says one Republican who dueled with him over the last six years.

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'Anyone who underestimates the guy is making a big mistake'

Although the field can change — and likely will in the coming months — Kim finds himself the front-runner for the job, stocked with a surge of $1 million in donations and a new survey showing him with a 6-1 lead over Menendez in a hypothetical matchup and with 2-1 lead over Tammy Murphy, the governor’s wife, who is pondering a possible run for Menendez’s seat.

“I would say anyone who underestimates the guy is making a big mistake," said Chris Russell, a Republican political consultant who advised two of the three candidates who have lost to Kim since the 2018 contest. “He comes off almost like a Clark Kent type of figure, like he's very innocent and very kind of ‘aw-shucks,’ but he's incredibly, incredibly shrewd. And the way he entered this race? If that doesn't get their attention that he's someone to be reckoned with, then they're missing out.”

Superseding indictment: Senator Menendez charged with acting as an agent of the Egyptian government

Russell also doesn't buy Kim's narrative that Kim was prompted to run for the Senate after listening to Menendez's defiant remarks. Kim's fundraising, for example, suggests he had been quietly planning a challenge earlier this year when news of the federal investigation began leaking into the news cycle.

"I think he was waiting for it to happen and knew that he was going to be the party's choice," he said. "And he just said you know what? While these guys are eyeing this thing up and making their plans, I'm gonna beat him to the punch."

Despite the darkening clouds over Menendez, handicapping the race remains guesswork at this point. Menendez has dug in his heels even deeper despite last week’s bombshell development, a new federal charge that accuses him of acting as a foreign agent of Egypt while serving as the chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee.

The new charge has certainly ratcheted up the pressure, with Kim among the earliest leaders now calling for Menendez’s expulsion from the Senate — a tall order given that it will require a two-thirds majority, which means Republicans would have to join in an expulsion vote. But most Republicans have refused to call for him to step aside, since it serves the GOP’s strategic interest to keep a politically wounded Menendez in office as long as possible.

Read the new indictment: How feds allege Sen. Menendez acted as a foreign agent for Egypt

Meanwhile, others eye the governor's office

And while Kim, at least on paper, has tried to clear the field and create an aura of inevitability around his candidacy, there is the possibility of others joining the race.

Even though the race for governor is two years off, there is already an early, pre-primary primary of jockeying for support, with figures like Jersey City Mayor Steve Fulop already running and snatching up institutional support, while Rep. Mikie Sherrill, D-Montclair, and Rep. Josh Gottheimer, D-Wyckoff, are also eyeing the governor’s post.

Political observers say the proximity of a Menendez replacement race and the governor’s race leaves a variety of options in the air. A candidate seeking the governor’s office may opt for the Senate seat if the institutional support doesn’t line up in their favor. One candidate, for example, might bow out of one race if other rivals agree to support him or her for the other.

Instead of a clear field, the forecast is cloudy and uncertain. And for some analysts, the biggest mark against the impressive Kim is his geography.

A candidate who might emerge from North Jersey who can capture the hearts of party power brokers in Democratic-rich counties like Essex, Hudson and Bergen would be the odds-on favorite to win the nomination.

Kim might be able to secure the all-important organizational blessing — or county line — in Burlington, Mercer, Monmouth and Middlesex counties, which are part of his congressional district, but it would prove to be no match for an anointed candidate from the north. That helps explain why there has been no swift coronation for Kim, despite the impressive early start.

“He’s a go-getter and he's a good fundraiser and all that kind of stuff. So I don't see why he wouldn't be attractive," noted Micah Rasmussen, director of the Rebovich Institute for New Jersey Politics at Rider University. "However, what you can probably say is that he's new enough and maybe not the darling of the power brokers around the state and that he doesn't … keep anybody else away from the race.”

More Charlie Stile: 'Gold Bar Bob' Menendez digs in with help from Republicans

'I can win very decisively'

Kim is aware of the institutional caution that has, so far, kept the party from circling around his bandwagon. But he’s quick to remind that he has proved to be the resilient, underestimated candidate who could defy and has defied expectations.

He narrowly edged MacArthur in 2018 in a district that former President Donald Trump carried two years earlier. Kim went on to handily defeat businessman David Richter in 2020. And in 2022, he easily survived a challenge from yacht-builder Bob Healey in a district redesigned to be more favorably Democratic.

The father of two and a graduate of Cherry Hill High School, Kim made his mark quickly as a champion for campaign finance reform, sponsoring legislation that required members of Congress to stow their assets in mutual funds or blind trusts and called for the overturning of Citizens United, the landmark 2010 Supreme Court decision that opened the spigots of unregulated cash into political campaigns.

His record has given Kim the ability to straddle the New Jersey Democrats' two major wings — the progressive, reform-driven wing and the more moderate, centrist wing — a skill that should give him a marketable edge in a competitive primary. It would also allow him to make the case that he represents a stark contrast and a clean break from the corrupt, machine blight of the era of Menendez, who began his tenure in 2006 with a cloud over his head and could very well leave with a devastating indictment to resolve.

Kim, a Rhodes scholar, also argues that he can attract young voters and New Jersey’s burgeoning Asian American Pacific Islander population. If elected, he would be the first Asian American senator from New Jersey. Kim says he’s been making his case to Democratic county chairs why he “would be the best general election candidate” who can “help the Democrats up and down the ticket.”

“I have proven not just that I can win, but I can win very decisively against Republicans even in tough areas," Kim said, in full sales pitch mode. “And I hope that the party sees value in that I will be the fourth-youngest senator in the country. And I hope the Democratic Party sees value in energizing the youth vote in New Jersey, which we know is so critical to winning [and] to show that we can have that kind of diversity of generation at a time when there's a lot of hunger for that.”

Charlie Stile is a veteran New Jersey political columnist. For unlimited access to his unique insights into New Jersey’s political power structure and his powerful watchdog work, please subscribe or activate your digital account today.

Email: stile@northjersey.com 

This article originally appeared on NorthJersey.com: Bob Menendez indictment: Andy Kim ready to run for Senate